While highly regarded 2yo firsters #1 Heartland and #6 A Day to Remember attract most of the betting attention, a second-tier contender could slip through the cracks. He is #4 Head Lad, a Bob Baffert-trained stablemate of Heartland who has trained like he could post a mild upset.

Head Lad is by first-crop sire St. Patrick’s Day, whose seven debut runners have three wins and two seconds. Head Lad worked in company with Heartland on July 22, and though Heartland “won” the work, Head Lad worked well. He drew in the middle of the field, while Heartland is stuck on the rail.  Head Lad is a candidate to outrun his 4-1 program odds. Due to the price discrepancy, third preference Head Lad is the play. 

Betting strategy is a small $6 play in the exacta ($1 min) insisting on an upset by Head Lad, $8 play in the double ($2 min) keyed off Head Lad; and $9 play in the pick three (50-cent min) using contenders all three races. 

#4 Cherubic Factor can win this N2X turf sprint if he reproduces his impressive last-out N1X level, but one problem. Four rivals he defeated ran back, and none finished in the money. It tempers enthusiasm for Cherubic Factor, the program favorite who does benefit by a lively pace scenario and relatively high figures.

Two longshots are inviting. They are #8 Arman and #10 Nabokov, both listed 8-1. Arman was overmatched both recent stakes, he drops into an allowance and faces older for the first time; he has a versatile style and pedigree fine for turf. His previous turf start is disregarded.

Nabokov earned speed figures on dirt in winter that are fast enough for this level. First-time turf is no problem based on pedigree. Betting strategy is a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min), mostly keyed on Cherubic Factor. Small saver win bets on the longshots is an option.

#9 Mr. Chivas is a program favorite to bet against, even though he could win based on a pair of recent runner-up finishes. But he regressed last out in his third start, and though he might benefit this time by a journeyman rider, he also picks up seven pounds. Pass on the program favorite.

A pair of first-time starters offer potential. #5 Only One America is bred to win early. He is by 20-percent 2yo debut sire Marking; his dam won first out and produced a debut winner. Trainer Peter Miller has positive long-term stats with Cal-bred debut 2yos. Second preference is #1 Just a Guess, a Cal-bred by Nyquist from a dam whose two runners both won first out. If the pick three ticket is live, it is personal preference whether to press in the win pool or sit tight.

Betting strategy is basic: win wagers on the top-choice firsters at 4-1 or higher, and $4 play in the exacta ($1 min) that boxes the two top.

(Saturday update: Based on positive workout reviews from clocker reports, first-time starter #3 Helen's Sun is live. An additional $6 play in the exacta is added.)

This route for $16k claiming fillies and mares is unappealing. #5 Awesome Taylor is the tepid choice on class. A goofy longshot is stretch-out #2 Jacrodra’s Devil, listed 15-1 with synthetic-surface figures fast enough for this dirt race. This is a token win-place bet, only for the sake of action.

A pair of European imports from leading stables top this turf mile for maiden 2yo fillies. They are #5 Loterie and #3 Angioletta. Both ran well in Europe last out, both appear well-meant first U.S. start for trainers Phil D’Amato and Doug O’Neill. No creativity; they are the one-two program favorites.

But a pair of underneath longshots make the exacta and trifecta worth fiddling with. #4 Pink Whitney split the field in her debut; the sibling to G3 winner/proven-on-turf Tall Boy should improve second out. She is listed 15-1. The other outsider is #7 Keepyourpranceon, stretching out from a dirt sprint with a turf-route pedigree. Sired by Sir Prancealot, she was produced by a long-distance turf mare and is listed 12-1.

Betting strategy will concede the race to the favorites, and insist longshots complete the exacta and/or trifecta. It’s an $8 play in the exacta ($1 min) and $6 play in the trifecta (50-cent min).

#5 Like No Other should win this N2L claiming route for fillies and mares. Her trainer Andy Mathis wins at a high percentage, she has the top figures, a pressing style, and is a likely winner at a short price. This race offers little appeal from a single-race betting perspective. Therefore, strategy is uncomplicated.

It’s an $8 play in the pick three (50-cent min) that singles Like No Other, “buys” race 7, and singles 6-1 top choice American Admiral in the race-8 San Diego Handicap. Only 11 runners can start in race 7, so the pick-three ticket using “all” will not cost more than $5.50. Another $2.50 ticket will press the race-7 contenders. Total bet cost: $8.

(Saturday update: Pick-three ticket structure has been updated.)

Maiden-claiming races on turf can be difficult to interpret. This is one of those. #3 Cute Khloe and #4 Warren’s Paradice are top choices at 6-1 and 5-1 respectively, but their advantage is minimal. This is a pass race. No plays.

#5 American Admiral at 6-1 program odds is the play of the day. This is based on dramatic recent improvement, seven-pound weight break under handicap conditions, and an appealing price on the morning line. Horse-against-horse, American Admiral is no equal to 125-pound highweight favorite #6 Defunded. But the discrepancy in odds and weight break are reasons enough to back the price.

American Admiral trained well since a fast allowance win over a good horse last out at Santa Anita; a sharp team drill last week at Del Mar indicates he maintains his form. A massive allowance-caliber gelding in the best form of his career, it is still possible (or, likely) that American Admiral is not good enough. But the California handicap division is shallow, and this race is a “go” for American Admiral, who can rally from the middle of the field.

Defunded is the class of the field, a multiple G1 winner, and the favorite. #4 Missed the Cut was dusted by American Admiral last out, but that was the first U.S. start for Missed the Cut, whose fall-2022 European form is very good. He defeated Algiers by a nose in November; that rival returned to win two Group 2’s and finish second in the Dubai World Cup. A mile and a sixteenth is still shorter than Missed the Cut Prefers. His best race probably will be next out in the Pacific Classic at a mile and a quarter. #10 Brickyard Ride is speed, with a longshot chance to steal it; he will be chased by #1 Slow Down Andy.

Betting strategy focuses entirely around American Admiral; the main play is a straight win bet. He also will be singled in a $6 play in the double ($2 min), $3 play in the pick three (50-cent min), and $3 play in the pick four (50-cent min). The rolling bets are gravy; the play of the day is American Admiral to win. Pick your amount.

Stuck-at-the-N1X level #9 Ultimate Hy is the top choice based on three successive runner-up finishes. European import #4 Impact Warrior is second preference and the program favorite making her U.S. debut for D’Amato. There is at least one more contender, curiously listed at 20-1.

#5 Gimme Mo Baby was only prepping last out in a comeback sprint last out; her 2022 form is fast enough and shows she prefers two turns. Her high program odds is either a mistake by the linemaker, or a mistake by handicappers who envision an odds-beating effort second start back. Here’s hoping it’s the former.

Betting strategy is win and place on third-preference Gimme Mo Baby, and $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys the longshot with the logicals.

#11 Dr. Schivel is arguably fastest in this Grade 1 sprint on speed figures. He likes the Del Mar surface: three wins and a second from four starts including two G1 wins and runner-up in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Dr. Schivel is comfortably drawn outside the speed, and he comes off a better-than-looked fifth in the prestigious Met Mile.

Bottom line: Dr. Schivel is a world-class sprinter in top form, facing rivals who may or may not be in his league. If he starts at 3-1 or higher, he is worth a straight bet. Exotic-wagering strategy will key Dr. Schivel around three double-digit outsiders. They are #1 Hoist the Gold, a G1-placed longshot from the Midwest, #3 Todo Fino, a speedster who won at Del Mar last year, and #12 Peaceful Waters, who is training very well for his comeback/first for John Sadler.

Main betting strategy is a win bet on Dr. Schivel at 3-1 or higher. That is a fair price on the best horse. Also, a $15 play in the exacta that keys Dr. Schivel, and a $15 play in the trifecta that insists on a win by Dr. Schivel and an in-the-money finish by one of the longshots.

#4 Smooth Salute, full sibling to G1 turf-mile winner Smooth Like Strait, is probably ready to win after an improved second start. He is the program favorite, no quarrel. But once again, the second preference offers greater value. He is #6 Hula Candy, a 5yo maiden making just the third start of his career.

Hula Candy ran well after a slow start in his sprint debut; he improved second time out. A wide trip camouflaged his better-than-looked effort. He lost by less than four lengths. A cutback from nine furlongs to eight is beneficial, and his 6-1 program odds seems about fair.

Betting strategy is a win bet on Hula Candy, and $14 play in the exacta insisting he finishes one-two, and the exacta is filled out by either Smooth Salute, #3 Caribbean King or #7 Watsonville.