Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, July 22 at Del Mar.
- Brad Free’s top 4 picks for each race (Thursday evening)
- Brad Free’s analysis of top races (Friday evening)
- Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis (Friday evening)
- Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Friday evening)
- If necessary, picks, analysis, and suggested wagers will be updated after key scratches Saturday.
Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
Full-card selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
2-Strike That
3-Handr'sdream
5-Wyfire
1-Self Taught
This claiming sprint is light on speed, a scenario that benefits program favorite #2 Strike That and Northern California shipper #3 Handr’sdream. Both will likely be forwardly placed as the only true front-runners/pressers.
Strike That “should” win as the 5-2 program favorite, based on a highly rated win last out at this level. He was claimed by Steve Knapp, whose first-off-the-claim favorites are 8-for-17 the past five years. Second preference Handr’sdream, dominating winner last out returning to dirt, ships south in top form as the only other speed. He is listed 5-1.
Conservative betting strategy is a $16 play in the double ($2 minimum), keying Strike That and Handr’sdream to three contenders in the second race while pressing to 5-1 “longshot” Group Hug.
10-Economical
6-Soul of Midnight
7-Group Hug
1-Spiritist
A program favorite to bet against is #1 Spiritist, who has never earned a speed figure within five points of par for this $16k claiming N2L level. Pass on the program chalk.
#10 Economical ran relatively fast in his most recent start on dirt, a 72-Beyer fourth in an open claiming sprint two back. He was overmatched last out on turf. Back on dirt, the gelding should return to form. #6 Soul of Midnight is speed, dropping to the bottom level for winners and shortening to one turn. The shipper #7 Group Hug is the aforementioned daily double “longshot.” The numbers he earned recently in the Midwest are plenty good enough.
Betting strategy may be influenced by the results of the first race. If the double is live into the second race, it is personal preference whether to go in for more. Considering the apparent vulnerability of the favorite, an $8 play in the exacta ($1 minimum) is recommended. It insists on a win by either Group Hug or Economical.
12-The Key Is Unity (SCRATCHED)
11-Dual Threat
1-Ice Storm
4-San Jac
Little insight to offer on this soft maiden-20 route. It is a pass race except for an action bet on a trouble-prone longshot who is stretching out. #4 San Jac is listed 15-1 after a series of tough-trip sprints (hit gate, greenly, stumbled). The race San Jac exits already produced at least two next-out winners. Strategy is a token win-place bet on San Jac, just for the fun of it, small stakes only.
7-Alvina
5-Mrs. Astor
1-Ruby Nell
9-Carole Lombard
#7 Alvina stretches to a mile following an ideal prep in her U.S. debut. She broke slowly, was purposely anchored, lost ground three- and four-wide through the turn, and finished steadily. The race was merely a tune-up. Her connections thought highly enough to nominate her to the Grade 2 San Clemente, but opt instead for this age-restricted N1X turf mile. She is listed 4-1, and worth a bet even if she drops a point.
While and #1 Ruby Nell and #5 Mrs. Astor are contenders, a pair of longshots offer greater value in the vertical exotics. #6 Swall, listed 12-1, is a lightly raced filly from the high-percent stable of Andy Mathis. #9 Carole Lombard, stablemate of Alvina, returns to her preferred turf footing.
Betting strategy is three-pronged: win bet on Alvina, $10 play in the exacta ($1 minimum) using Alvina with the longshots, and $8 play in the trifecta (50-cent minimum) that uses Alvina over Ruby Nell and Mrs. Astoar, with the longshots in the three-hole.
10-Borntostaythirsty
5-Conquest Celsius
11-Asada Fries (SCRATCHED)
1-Ebok's Dream Girl
This maiden race for Cal-bred 2yo fillies is a spillover from a Friday maiden race that overfilled. Friday’s field looks stronger, these leftovers include a pair of fourth-time starters whose ability is ordinary. #10 Borntostaythirsty finished in the money three starts; #5 Conquest Celsius has speed and missed by a nose last out. Neither offers any semblance of value at 3-1 and 4-1, respectively. It won’t take a champion to beat them, but unless also-eligible #11 Asada Fries makes the field and starts at 8-1 or higher, this modest race must be a pass. No plays.
(Saturday update: Asada Fries is scratched.)
7-Moose Mitchell
8-Howbeit
5-Escape Route
4-Affable
If he reproduces his Santa Anita form, #7 Moose Mitchell should win this N2X sprint as simply the fastest in the field. He has won twice at Del Mar, and enters with only one apparent knock. That is, a likely short price. The most probable winner is the 9-5 program favorite. He might go shorter.
But an upset candidate lurks, from the same stable as the favorite. George Papaprodomou also trains #8 Howbeit, who drops in class after being overmatched in a Grade 2. Howbeit has run fast enough for this level, and in fact won a N2X on this track two summers ago. Only eight runners in this field, and 4-1 program odds on Howbeit is only okay.
Betting strategy is conservative, aiming for a modest payoff. It’s a $10 play in the exacta ($1 minimum.) that keys the Papaprodomou entrants and presses if they happen to run one-two.
2-Very Scary
3-Warrens Candy Girl
12-Honey Pants
9-Awake At Midnyte
This turf-mile stakes race for fillies and mares has plenty of pace, and sets up for a late-running upset by #2 Very Scary or #3 Warrens Candy Girl, listed 6-1 and 5-1, respectively. Based on in-the-money finishes in graded stakes in spring, Very Scary is well-qualified for this restricted stake. She finished last her most recent, but her jockey basically wrapped up through the lane. It was a toss race. Very Scary is good enough, and so is her 6-1 price.
Warrens Candy Girl is a four-time winner over the Del Mar turf, including a Cal-bred stakes last summer. Her last-out misfire can be excused; she returns to her favorite course and will rally in a race that sets up for her. #12 Honey Pants is a sprinter who trains like she can stretch out. Her sprint figures rank among the highest in the field, and though she should be forwardly placed, she is not a one-dimensional front-runner. Logical contender, first start in two months.
Betting strategy is an $8 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys Very Scary and Warrens Candy Girl on top, and an $8 play in the double ($2 min) to a pair of 2-year-old first-time starters in the next race.
1-Ashley
8-Dua
6-Hope Road
3-Mocha Grande
Was looking forward to betting #1 Ashley in this maiden sprint for 2-year-old fillies. But then the morning line came out, and apparently word is out. Ashley is listed 5-2 second favorite. No value on a first-time starter breaking from the rail. Ashley is quick, and if she breaks, she can be gone. As for program favorite #8 Dua, the only apparent critique is pedigree. Arrogate progeny rarely win first out as 2-year-olds. Dua might be the exception; she has trained very well.
Single-race strategy is another conservative play. Underneath contenders include stablemates #3 Mocha Grande and #6 Hope Road, stablemates #7 April Vintage and #9 Fiesty Mitole. It’s a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min), and it’s mainly for the sake of action.
3-Anisette
8-Paris Secret
2-Ancient Peace
11-Wed
The U.S. debut by #3 Anisette was outstanding, and stamps her the most likely winner of the Grade 2 San Clemente. In her recent comeback against older N1X fillies and mares, she ran faster each successive quarter-mile, and won going away. Two she defeated won next out, three others finished second next out. Anisette, flattered by competition she dusted, can win again. She is listed at an appealing 4-1 in the program.
#8 Paris Secret is better than her distant third last out as the favorite in a G3. She was a last-minute entry, this Del Mar turf stakes was always her main target after she won a G3 two starts back. #2 Ancient Peace is probably compromised on pace. She is a need-the-lead front-runner, facing a tough pace adversary in #1 Flying Connection.
Betting strategy is a win bet on Anisette, and a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that uses Anisette with upset candidates Paris Secret and Ancient Peace.
9-Donnie the Chiro
10-Dr. No No
5-Capo Luigi
3-Buraq's Refelction
A pair of first-time starters top this field of Cal-bred 2-year-olds. #9 Donnie the Chiro debuts for trainer Peter Miller, who is 4-for-8 with Cal-bred 2yo firsters at Del Mar the past five summers. ’Chiro is a sibling to a pair of stakes winners. Second preference #10 Dr. No No also hails from a stable that does well with firsters, and also is bred to win early. Brian Koriner is 10-for-41 with firsters (all categories) the past five years. Dr. No No is a full sibling to debut winner Sell the Dream.
As the two lowest prices in the program, Donnie the Chiro and Dr. No No offer minimal value at 7-2 and 4-1, respectively. Trouble is, few of the others look that great. Betting strategy is basic, not swinging for any fences with a mere $16 play in the double ($2 min) that presses the 5-1 top choice in the finale.
9-Tio Magico
1-Sarwar
7-Vancougar
12-Liberal
Comebacker #9 Tio Magico ran super finishing second over the Del Mar turf last fall, followed by a creditable effort behind subsequent G1 winner Exaulted. Off since January, ’Magico appears to have worked well, he runs well fresh, there is pace to flatter his rally, and he is listed at an appealing 5-1 in the program. #1 Sarwar finished second in his comeback, running a final three furlongs in :34.73. Sharp effort at a mile and one-eighth, he cuts back to a mile and will fly late. #7 Vancougar stretches out for the first time; his last-out third in a downhill sprint at SA suggests a two-turn mile is in reach.
Betting strategy is a win bet on Tio Magico, and a $10 play in the exacta that insists Tio Magico finish first or second.