03/30/2016 11:10AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 30

Dubai Racing Club/Andrew Watkins
Lani (center) wins the UAE Derby and joins the Derby Watch top 20 as a 50-1 longshot.


Lani, the winner of the United Arab Emirates Derby, and Tom’s Ready, the runner-up in the Louisiana Derby, are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Both are decided longshots, with Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, pegging each at 50-1 on his future line for the May 7 Kentucky Derby. Gun Runner, the Louisiana Derby winner, is down to 15-1 on Watchmaker’s line from last week’s 20-1, making him the co-sixth choice with Destin and Zulu. Watchmaker also tweaked the odds on the unbeaten Shagaf, lowering him to 20-1 from last week’s 25-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: Redding hoping Nyquist can light the lamp


Forevamo and Greenpointcrusader – both of whom were in the bottom half of last week’s top 20 – were dropped from the list after being well beaten in the Louisiana Derby.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays


My Man Sam and Swipe were the closest to breaking into the top 20 this week, but they’ll have to wait another week at least. Fellowship, who runs in the Florida Derby on Saturday, could earn enough points to be assured of a spot in the Derby field; he’s been knocking on the door for weeks. In addition, the winner of the Spiral Stakes on Saturday at Turfway will go on the list – provided he’s nominated to the Triple Crown – since that race is worth 50 points to the winner, basically making it a Win and You’re In.