03/30/2016 10:10AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 30

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Dubai Racing Club/Andrew Watkins
Lani (center) wins the UAE Derby and joins the Derby Watch top 20 as a 50-1 longshot.

WHO’S HOT

Lani, the winner of the United Arab Emirates Derby, and Tom’s Ready, the runner-up in the Louisiana Derby, are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Both are decided longshots, with Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, pegging each at 50-1 on his future line for the May 7 Kentucky Derby. Gun Runner, the Louisiana Derby winner, is down to 15-1 on Watchmaker’s line from last week’s 20-1, making him the co-sixth choice with Destin and Zulu. Watchmaker also tweaked the odds on the unbeaten Shagaf, lowering him to 20-1 from last week’s 25-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: Redding hoping Nyquist can light the lamp

WHO’S NOT

Forevamo and Greenpointcrusader – both of whom were in the bottom half of last week’s top 20 – were dropped from the list after being well beaten in the Louisiana Derby.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

ON THE BUBBLE

My Man Sam and Swipe were the closest to breaking into the top 20 this week, but they’ll have to wait another week at least. Fellowship, who runs in the Florida Derby on Saturday, could earn enough points to be assured of a spot in the Derby field; he’s been knocking on the door for weeks. In addition, the winner of the Spiral Stakes on Saturday at Turfway will go on the list – provided he’s nominated to the Triple Crown – since that race is worth 50 points to the winner, basically making it a Win and You’re In.

J More than 1 year ago
How does anyone even consider what this guy says. His track record is not very good for someone who lives and breathes this stuff
Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
Swipe news I found ,Swipe (Birdstone) has not raced since his second-place finish in the Oct. 31 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but trainer Keith Desormeaux is growing increasingly optimistic that he can have his $5,000 KEESEP yearling purchase ready for the GI Kentucky Derby.

Desormeaux said Tuesday that he is planning on racing Swipe in the GIII Coolmore Lexington S. Apr. 16 at Keeneland, which he hopes will set him up for the Derby.

“I feel a lot better about him than I did two weeks ago,” he offered. “His last two works were very good and have been confidence-building. If he runs well in the Lexington and the race doesn’t knock him out I don’t see any reason not to go on to the Derby.”

Swipe was sidelined after the Breeders’ Cup when he had to have a bone chip removed from an ankle. He did not return to the work tab until Feb. 27 and has had just four published works this year. The latest was a one-mile drill on Saturday at Santa Anita in 1:43 2/5.

Swipe may need to win the Lexington to have enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby. He currently has 12 points and would earn another 10 with a Lexington win. Twenty-two points is usually enough to make the field.

Swipe was among the better 2-year-olds in training last year, but kept running into divisional champion Nyquist (Uncle Mo). He finished second behind that foe in each of his last four starts.

 

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Ken Sposito More than 1 year ago
Swipe - Been working out at SA. Probably looking at the SA derby. He's about ready for competition.
Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
HE S RACING ,Swipe (Birdstone) has not raced since his second-place finish in the Oct. 31 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but trainer Keith Desormeaux is growing increasingly optimistic that he can have his $5,000 KEESEP yearling purchase ready for the GI Kentucky Derby.

Desormeaux said Tuesday that he is planning on racing Swipe in the GIII Coolmore Lexington S. Apr. 16 at Keeneland, which he hopes will set him up for the Derby.

“I feel a lot better about him than I did two weeks ago,” he offered. “His last two works were very good and have been confidence-building. If he runs well in the Lexington and the race doesn’t knock him out I don’t see any reason not to go on to the Derby.”

Swipe was sidelined after the Breeders’ Cup when he had to have a bone chip removed from an ankle. He did not return to the work tab until Feb. 27 and has had just four published works this year. The latest was a one-mile drill on Saturday at Santa Anita in 1:43 2/5.

Swipe may need to win the Lexington to have enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby. He currently has 12 points and would earn another 10 with a Lexington win. Twenty-two points is usually enough to make the field.

Swipe was among the better 2-year-olds in training last year, but kept running into divisional champion Nyquist (Uncle Mo). He finished second behind that foe in each of his last four starts.

 

Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.

Bob Flumerfelt More than 1 year ago
What is up with Swipe ,is he going to run a prep for the Derby ?