03/11/2015 10:43AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's Hot, Who's Not for March 11

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Barbara D. Livingston
Materiality is one of six runners trainer Todd Pletcher has on the Derby Watch top 20.

WHO’S HOT
Todd Pletcher. With both Materiality and Royal Son joining the Derby Watch top 20 this week, Pletcher now has six runners on the list, headed by Carpe Diem, who won the Tampa Bay Derby last week. Materiality is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Royal Son is 30-1. The only other newcomer to the top 20 is Bolo, who finished third in the San Felipe. He is 20-1. Dortmund, who won the San Felipe, remains the favorite but is now just 5-1 after being 6-1 a week ago. Carpe Diem, 12-1 last week, is now the co-second choice with American Pharoah at 8-1. Prospect Park, the San Felipe runner-up, saw his price cut in half, to 15-1 from 30-1. Gotham winner El Kabeir is down to 20-1 after being 30-1 last week.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | American Pharoah's return adds fuel to fire

WHO’S NOT
The Pletcher-trained Khozan was one of the defections from last week, owing to injury. Two others – Ocean Knight and Ocho Ocho Ocho – were removed for disappointing performances. Ocho Ocho Ocho had a dreadful trip in the San Felipe but will have just one more chance to add to the 10 points he got in the Delta Jackpot, and that will come in a deep Santa Anita Derby that should include the top three from the San Felipe. The price on Texas Red continues to float up. Because of recently missing time with a foot abscess, he is now 20-1 after being 12-1 last week.

ON THE BUBBLE
Ami’s Flatter, second in the Tampa Bay Derby, was among those who just missed the cut. The Truth Or Else, scheduled to face American Pharoah in the Rebel on Saturday, could move onto the list with a sharp performance. Dubai-based runners Maftool and Mubtaahij also are knocking on the door.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

rahman Williams More than 1 year ago
Word of advice if your horse is healthy on March 14 and nominated for TC, your hot, no horse is who is health and nominated for TC on March 14 is Not
Kevin Rice More than 1 year ago
There's no way Fernando Jara on Uninfluenced, was going to let her push out of there. She might have been able to get through the rail earlier if she hadn't tried to look to go outside coming off the turn.
Thomas Nicholson More than 1 year ago
Tiz Shea D in his second start ran a great race in the Gotham. Going the into the far turn he was well positioned third in the 3 path ready to swing out into the stretch. But the jockey decided to duck down onto the rail. In the stretch he ran into a wall of horses. He had to slow. When the rail finally oped up he had no chance to catch the winner. This horse could have won this race ( in my opinion) if the jockey had just stayed outside, out of trouble and let this horse kick on home. I think this horse will be around ( with luck of course) big time Derby Day ! To bad he wasn't in the last DERBY FUTURE pool!
Andrew Connie More than 1 year ago
100/1 on sportsbook.com I would wast my time in Churchill pools..
Scott More than 1 year ago
Thomas, I seriously doubt that New York is going to produce a serious threat in the Derby this year unless Upstart chooses to run in the Wood. Personally, I really would like Upstart to head North for a couple reasons: 1) There are two horses currently "on the radar" in NY (unless you really want to add Tiz Shea D): obviously El Kabeir and Withers winner Far From Over. Both of these have serious questions that need asking, but without a proven contender running against them in the Wood, I don't feel like we'll have our answers. From what we've seen so far, El Kabeir is a good horse, but I just am not feeling he's at the top of this year's talent pool. Far From Over might be at that level, but with only two races under his belt to date, I would really like to see him take down one of the proven players. 2) Upstart is definitely in the discussion of one of the top horses in the Division and I at least heard that they were still considering the Wood over the Florida Derby. If El Kabeir and/or Far From Over can even hang with him, then they'd be worth considering on Derby Day. (note: if Tiz Shea D was able to, then you'd have reason to be excited). For now, the Gotham looks like a really weak prep that was won by a good, but likely not spectacular horse.
Honnimae More than 1 year ago
wait , When a Real Jock gets on his Back.. watch out for him in the wood
Ann More than 1 year ago
If you want a Derby winner, don't run in the Delta Jackpot. Yes, it has a big purse so if that is your goal, to get as much money from winning races as you can, go for it.. But if you want to have a horse ready and able for Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, the timing and course of the Delta Jackpot won't help you get there.
Scott More than 1 year ago
I don't think that's a fair statement. The Delta is run in November, so there is plenty of time to line up the other preps to fit just about any Derby preference. I realize that we've yet to see anyone come out of that race and go on to win the Derby, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. It's worth noting that Goldencents was one of the favorites for the Derby after winning the Delta in 2012. Note: It's worth noting that we haven't seen the winner of the Wood Memorial win the Kentucky Derby since 2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus). And before that you have to go all the way back to 1981 (Pleasant Colony) to find a Derby winner that won it. The Delta Jackpot has only been run since 2002 and has at least produced a couple players something that the Wood hasn't seemed to be able to do in a few years (mostly due to injures though).
Bruce Heringa More than 1 year ago
Pletcher should invite me to the Derby, because the only time he ever won it,was the only time I was ever there!
Scott More than 1 year ago
I hit that race, but was disappointed that my "wise guy" pick of Super Saver was bet down so far. For me, SS was the pick regardless of who the jockey was, but I really think Borel's presence on him drove his odds way down. Oh well, a win is a win.
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
Yea I'm sure the reason he won was because you where there..fantasy thinking can lead to madness.
Michael Infurna More than 1 year ago
Pletcher may have a shot if he runs 6 horses!!
mike More than 1 year ago
Exactly Michael,this is his old go to act each year. Funny he has one Derby win.
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
He also has 2 2nds and other placings ..I usually don't bet his horses in the derby,but his record isn't as bad as people make it out to be.
Dom DiNatale More than 1 year ago
Yes it is.....
edb More than 1 year ago
1 for 35????? He had 40 of the top 100 three year olds last year and he did what? Best barn by far, but he has a long history of failure come May. I don't use his horses in my futures after years of disappointment. Where have you gone Uncle Mo, Shanghai Bobbie, Eskendreya and Dreaming of Julia on the filly side.?
Meydan Rocks More than 1 year ago
It is what it is. Pletcher isn't going to recuse himself from the Kentucky derby just because his training talent may not match his horses talent? I mean come on. Someone over at the Blood horse said it best. She said Todd is a manager of future stallions. You find the best races to place them in to burnish their resume and send them off to the breeding shed where the money is more plentiful that on the track. Todd's gotta do what Todd's gotta do. And it's not what most folks want from Todd.
Jim Fields More than 1 year ago
IT WON'T BE THIS YEAR EITHER! ! ! IF KENTUCKIAN COULD GET TO THE DERBY, PLETCHER WOULD BE RUNNING FOR FOURTH MONEY! ! ! THE CALIFORNIA CONTINGENT IS TOO TOO TOUGH! ! ! IMHO