Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 19, 2014

WHO’S HOT

Bayern and Kobe’s Back are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20 list. Bayern, a runaway allowance winner last week at Santa Anita, is listed at 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Kobe’s Back, who won the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Sunday, is 30-1 on Watchmaker’s line. Tapiture, who won the Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park, had his price tumble from 15-1 to 10-1 on Watchmaker’s line.

WHO’S NOT

To make room for the two newcomers, Vinceremos and Harpoon were dropped. They finished first and second Feb. 1 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, a race that offered no points toward the Derby under the system used by Churchill Downs to determine the field should more than the maximum of 20 horses enter. Strong Mandate, second in the Southwest, was bumped up by Watchmaker to 15-1 from last week’s 10-1. Conquest Titan (30-1 from 25-1) and Noble Moon (40-1 from 30-1) also had their prices raised.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | [McGaughey has two top prospects for repeat bid]

ON THE BUBBLE

Tamarando, winner of the El Camino Real Derby last Saturday at Golden Gate Fields, is one of many horses who were considered but ultimately missed the cut. There could be plenty of changes on next week’s list, owing to large fields in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, along with a strong field in a Gulfstream allowance, all on Saturday. Major names in those races looking to forge onto the list include Albano, Almost Famous, Constitution, General a Rod, Intense Holiday, Hoppertunity, Mexikoma, Tonalist, Wicked Strong, and Wildcat Red.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]