02/11/2015 2:49PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 11


Far From Over, who overcame a disastrous start to win the Withers, and Prospect Park, the impressive winner of a recent allowance race at Santa Anita, are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Far From Over is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Prospect Park is listed at 30-1. Dortmund, who remained unbeaten with a win in the Robert B.  Lewis Stakes, is the new favorite on Watchmaker’s line at 6-1. He was 12-1 a week ago. Upstart is the second choice at 8-1, down a tick from last week’s 10-1. Firing Line, who lost his second straight race by a head to Dortmund, is now 12-1 after being 20-1 a week ago.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: Smith fit for another run at roses

Classy Class, third in the Withers, and Rock Shandy, a distant third in the Lewis, were the two removed to make way for Far From Over and Prospect Park. Texas Red, favored at 8-1 on the initial Derby Watch list last week, is now the third choice at 10-1 on Watchmaker’s line owing to a foot abscess that is interrupting his intended prep schedule.

There are two preps offering qualifying points this holiday weekend – the El Camino Real Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields and the Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park – so there are several prospects who could move onto the list, most notably Mr. Z, who has shown that he’s capable of giving Dortmund and Firing Line all they can handle but also has shown a disturbing penchant to lug out. An improved performance in the Southwest – where he runs straight and true – would make him a viable Derby Watch candidate. 

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays