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Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 3
By Jay Privman
Lines of Battle, winner of the United Arab Emirates Derby, is one of three additions to this week's Derby Watch top 20. He earned 100 points toward the May 4 Kentucky Derby, guaranteeing a berth in the 20-horse field. The other newcomers are Mylute, who was second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby, and Power Broker, a Grade 1 winner at 2 who will be making his first start of the year in the Santa Anita Derby this Saturday. All three are 30-1 on the Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper. Orb, who won the Florida Derby, is now 6-1 after being 8-1 a week ago. Revolutionary was cut to 8-1 from last week's 10-1. They are the second and third choices, respectively, behind Verrazano, who is scheduled to have his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct.
Three horses were dropped from the list: Code West, Palace Malice, and last year's Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male, Shanghai Bobby, who was removed from Derby consideration after finishing fifth in the Florida Derby. Code West was outrun in the Louisiana Derby. Palace Malice, who had a rough trip in the Louisiana Derby, will get one last shot to earn Derby points in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 13 at Keeneland. But, until then, others are adjudged more deserving of being in the top 20.
ON THE BUBBLE
Super Ninety Nine just missed the cut this week, with Power Broker being preferred by the Derby Watch brain trust. Super Ninety Nine can get back on the list, however, if he rebounds with a strong performance in the Santa Anita Derby, which also features Tiz a Minister. At Aqueduct, Mr Palmer is among those who could leap into the list with a one-two finish in the Wood.
did i not read the name o'nell somewhere on this page? was he not the trainer who milkshaked his horses? tell me why he wasn't relieved of his duties? politics? stupidity?
hot cold irrelevant ....the question is who is good enough and will get the distance and then pray that it does not rain....right now in my opinion the big boys are hear the ghost,flashback,orb,itsmyluckyday.....the others all have questions including Revolutionary (who has he beaten..class)..oxbow (can he close the deal..will to win).. vyjack (just how will hold up in front of a large noisy crowd and has he been getting rudys special juice)..goldencents (can he relax or will he take off after the front running speed? can his jockey control him?)...verrezano..(has looked awesome but can his trainer have a top horse run well in the derby exept for super saver on a muddy track under calvin borel he has not. can this horse face a big field and get outside in time for his long stride to kick in,looked a little uncomfortable inside last .if johnny v rides it will be a big plus)...the others uncaptured is a big grinder who will need a pace meltdown...falling sky if he gets in will need to grow and improve and a wet track...Normandy invader as more excuses than should be allowed and reminds me of street life who would always arrive too late...lines of battle won a slow uae derby and would have to travel from Dubai as much as aiden Obrien is a great trainer it would take an incredible training feat even if he was good enough... dynamic sky will need improvement even though he has the right closing style ...the others I think are not serious contenders general Charlie beat nobody at sunland and super ninenty nine was badly exposed last time...fury kapcory is injured...Shanghai bobby was never a serious derby horsedistance limitations...others are turf or synthetics horses only...so there you have it the opinion of a guestimator just like everybody else.
Shanghai bobby was never a derby horse because of the distance limitations.even uncle mo who was probably a better horse was not a derby horse for the same reason..if they insisted on the derby trail it would just get harder and harder for this horse to finish on the board.now at 7 f to a mile hes good.
I like the First three Finishers of the LA Derby. Fl Only the Winner needs to go Don't like any of the Horses running in the SA Derby and I don't care Who wins..a Maiden may win it .. the Wood will be interesting if Vijack Crushes the Field even with Todd's horse in there the Spiral I don't like any of them
Now really guys all the horses coming out the BC BEHIND S/BOBBY HAVE REGRESSED! Lets get serious.
Lines of Battle should be around 65-1 on Derby Day.
how dumb to add Power Broker , yeah he's hot , gonna run last in first start of year
If you are going to be a handicapper you need to know this. Do not listen to others to give you a pick. Do it yourself, most of these experts pick horses on trainers, where they race at but actually know very littel about handicapping.
You guys are right it doesn't matter who's who on any list. Like one famous baseball player said "It ain't over till it's OVER" or like I say "It ain't over till the fat hose sings " As long as your in slots 1 threw 20 your in no matter what odds you have.
Hear The Ghost is #1
- 1.Posted 12/05/2013 01:44PM
- 2.Posted 12/05/2013 04:54PM
- 3.Posted 12/06/2013 03:20PM
- 4.Posted 12/07/2013 07:42PM
- 5.Posted 12/07/2013 03:42PM