04/16/2014 11:11AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 16

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WHO’S HOT

With the final round of races worth 170 qualifying points having been run, the Derby Watch list is now entirely points driven. Newcomers to the list this week are Dance With Fate and Medal Count, who ran one-two in the Blue Grass Stakes, and Danza, the upset winner of the Arkansas Derby. Danza is 12-1 on the Kentucky Derby line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form ’s national handicapper. Watchmaker pegged Dance With Fate at 20-1 and Medal Count at 30-1. California Chrome’s position as favorite solidified further with the withdrawal Wednesday of Constitution, who is injured and off the Triple Crown trail. California Chrome is now 3-1 after being 4-1 last week and 6-1 the week prior. Wicked Strong is now the second choice at 8-1 after being the fifth choice at 12-1 last week.

WHO’S NOT

The most significant defection was Constitution, who last week was the second choice on Watchmaker’s line at 8-1. Bayern, who suffered his first loss in the Arkansas Derby in his stakes debut, was taken off the list because he is outside the top 20 on points, while Bobby’s Kitten was removed from Derby consideration after a poor performance in the Blue Grass. Tapiture, the co-third choice at 10-1 last week, is now the co-sixth choice at 15-1 after finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list   

Constitution to miss Kentucky Derby with injury

ON THE BUBBLE

It’s all about the points. As of Wednesday, Vinceremos was 21st on the points list, followed by Harry’s Holiday and Commanding Curve, so they would be the next ones to move onto the list should any horses in the top 20 defect.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Jess Is Gothic More than 1 year ago
It's all up to "Danza" and "Wildcat Red" from here. Them are the 2 best left.
Fred Colon More than 1 year ago
The bottom line is that it will come down to who's well rested, in form, and bred with the stamina to go beyond 1 1/8. As we all know none have gone further than that.
StockPicker More than 1 year ago
Only one horse that sticks out for the 1 1/4.....Cairo Prince bred out of Pioneerof the Nile and Empire Maker.......I think he will relish the distance. Toss the last at Gulf
Geronimo2123 . More than 1 year ago
The pedigree on Wicked Strong is even better for 10 panels. Out of Hard Spun from the Danzig Northern Dancer line (2nd in Derby) from a Charismatic mare (he won the Derby and Preakness and would have won Belmont if not injured in stretch) and his second dam is from the Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval.
will More than 1 year ago
nothing else matters if they can't handle the distance
Paul Aussenhofer More than 1 year ago
I love seeing BB running MH in the Ill. Derby. It is the perfect bridge between his last race and the Derby(7 weeks is too long a layoff). He will be the only horse in the race with a foundation of 5 preps as a 3 year old so he will be plenty fit. He will be laying just off the speed and should keep going when others with less foundation tire. He is the Perfect Long Shot to use in your Tri's, and Super's because allot of other horses will take all the hype. A nice 20-30 to One shot to make your day. He probably won't win bit he should be top four.
Dan Passero More than 1 year ago
Wrong. Hopportunity has had 5. And mh won't go in the derby.
Matthew Ellis More than 1 year ago
Agree with some of your points but don't think this guy is Good enough just doesn't have the ability IMO. I have given him every benefit of the doubt but is interesting Baffert still trying with him. He knows better than we do ( Maybe ).
CarlE More than 1 year ago
Its interesting that two previously "hot" horses have dropped off the radar after needing their last races coming off unduly long rests (Candyboy and Cairo Prince)....could they get a lot better after their tune ups? I will admit I am looking for something to play.....where is he second coming of Animal Kingdom when we need him?
tim blake More than 1 year ago
By second coming do you mean you are looking for a turf horse to run in the derby? because there will be some.
Malihe Yahyavi More than 1 year ago
its a pretty bad derby field you got a 4 furlong horse from Cali as the fav
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
can you be a racehorse and horseracing fan for one minute and get your head out of your a.s .A 4 furlongh orse ?.really?..did hnot just win a 1 1.8 mile race eased up. He might not win the derby hell even some great horses get beaten. But he's as close as you get to the perfect favorite...i think your wishful thinking has you a little confused.
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
sorry keyboard issues....read horse.....and did he not.
tim blake More than 1 year ago
don't let the annoying troll comments get to you, Ray. I know it's hard but try to skim over them. most of these comments are not by horse racing fans. they are from people trying to influence you or get a reaction. and they are a waste of time.
jaybern1 More than 1 year ago
Training around 4 furlong horses is not contagious. Your comment is now the morning line favorite for an Eclipse Award for Dumbest Comment of the Year.
francis healy More than 1 year ago
I guess you don't have him @ 30-1 , i wouldn't like him at 2-1 either 4f horse ? your nuts
Dimas Barboza Quintero More than 1 year ago
Enemy: California Chrome
Bob More than 1 year ago
I'll tell you who's NOT hot...any horse trained by Steve Asmussen! Interesting how all of his Derby contenders have gone into the tank in the wake of the PETA allegations.... Hmmmmm?
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
let me break the scoop you it happens every year...sometimes its even worse and sometimes you get scratches after the draw or even the day before.I WANT REVENGE comes to mind.
tim blake More than 1 year ago
ditto to my response to you above.
John Howland More than 1 year ago
His filly Untappable is red hot and will be the heavy favorite in the K Oaks,for what it's worth.
Rick Martin More than 1 year ago
Randy, those Arkansas based horses are AWFUL. Look who's won the last two preps down there, shippers! Ark and NY are simply terrible. Winner is coming from Florida or California (not Calif Chrome though)
Bob More than 1 year ago
I've got $500 that says two out of the top three finishers in the Derby are from California and one of them will be California Chrome. The east coast horses suck this year. CC is clearly the best 3 year-old in the country but as we all know the best 3 year-old in the country almost never wins the Kentucky Derby.
Joey W More than 1 year ago
I'll take it. I do think one Cal horse will finish, not two and probably not CC.
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
why not just because hes the fav.?