04/16/2014 11:11AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 16



With the final round of races worth 170 qualifying points having been run, the Derby Watch list is now entirely points driven. Newcomers to the list this week are Dance With Fate and Medal Count, who ran one-two in the Blue Grass Stakes, and Danza, the upset winner of the Arkansas Derby. Danza is 12-1 on the Kentucky Derby line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form ’s national handicapper. Watchmaker pegged Dance With Fate at 20-1 and Medal Count at 30-1. California Chrome’s position as favorite solidified further with the withdrawal Wednesday of Constitution, who is injured and off the Triple Crown trail. California Chrome is now 3-1 after being 4-1 last week and 6-1 the week prior. Wicked Strong is now the second choice at 8-1 after being the fifth choice at 12-1 last week.


The most significant defection was Constitution, who last week was the second choice on Watchmaker’s line at 8-1. Bayern, who suffered his first loss in the Arkansas Derby in his stakes debut, was taken off the list because he is outside the top 20 on points, while Bobby’s Kitten was removed from Derby consideration after a poor performance in the Blue Grass. Tapiture, the co-third choice at 10-1 last week, is now the co-sixth choice at 15-1 after finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list   

Constitution to miss Kentucky Derby with injury


It’s all about the points. As of Wednesday, Vinceremos was 21st on the points list, followed by Harry’s Holiday and Commanding Curve, so they would be the next ones to move onto the list should any horses in the top 20 defect.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]