12/09/2011 11:27AM

How to bet Saturday's Fair Grounds Pick 4


Here's my race-by-race rundown of Saturday's Pick 4 at Fair Grounds. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com.

Race 10: Louisiana Champions Day Turf Stakes($100,000)

Kissimmee Kyle (#2) got in a useful comeback race after a long layoff on Nov. 24, and is most definitely the one to beat in race 10, the Turf. The only horse who beat him in this race last year, Snakebite Kit, is retired, and Kyle was more than four lengths clear of third in the 2010 Turf. He’s the likely favorite, but does not look like the kind of universal single who automatically depresses the pick four. But we’re singling him.

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Race 11: Louisiana Champions Day Classic Stakes($150,000)

I favor Star Guitar (#6) over Populist Politics (#4) in race 11, the Classic, in great part because Star Guitar should get first run on PP in a likely slow-paced race. But there's no reason not to use both of them if we're singling race 10.

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[MORE: Star Guitar back to defend Classic title]

Race 12: Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes($100,000)

Now the spreading begins. I do kind of like Su Casa G Casa (#1) in race 12, the Sprint, even though the rail draw doesn’t look great, and may bet him straight at the right price. But I think using him, Southern Dude (#2), Chief Jay (#3) and My Star Runner (#9) ought to cover it.

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[MORE: Chief Jay tries to turn tables in Sprint Stakes]

Race 13: Maiden Special Weight ($38,000)

Race 13, it seems fairly clear, is the place to spread as much as possible. Louisiana Glory (#15) looked talented in his debut and was cross-entered in the Juvenile. Were he somehow to get into the field, he’d be favored. That’s unlikely, however, and we’ll use Bring the Wood (#1), Pop Darbonne (#3), Hud’s Rebellion (#5), Legacy of Truth (#6), the Louisiana Kid (#8), Sworovski (#11), in addition to Louisiana Glory, even if he gets in.

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My Wagers

Cheapskates like me can play this at the 50-cent level, but even at the $1 level I'd feel pretty confident of making a decent profit here if Kissimmee Kyle can get us started.

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