2011 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 24

Who's Hot

Astrology, Elite Alex, and Flashpoint are the three new additions to this week’s top 20 of Derby Watch. All are 30-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Astrology, an accomplished 2-year-old who is making his belated 3-year debut on Sunday in the Sunland Derby, and Elite Alex, who is running Saturday in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, both drew poorly for these key Derby preps. Flashpoint is not scheduled to run until next weekend, in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream. The powerful Rebel victory by The Factor has propelled him to the second choice on Watchmaker’s line at 8-1. He was 15-1 a week ago.

Who's Not

To make room for the three newcomers, three horses – J P’s Gusto, Rogue Romance, and Sway Away – were dropped. Rogue Romance is injured and off the Derby trail. J P’s Gusto and Sway Away were removed following disappointing finishes in the Rebel, but both could conceivably move back on if they rebound in their final Derby preps. To account for The Factor’s significantly shorter odds this week, Watchmaker slightly raised the prices on four horses – Soldat, To Honor and Serve, Brethren, and Archarcharch.

On the Bubble

Caleb’s Posse, the Rebel runner-up, and Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go just missed the cut this week. With the Louisiana Derby, Spiral Stakes, United Arab Emirates Derby, and Sunland Derby all this weekend, there will be ample opportunities for newcomers to shine.

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