LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The first program of the spring meet at Churchill Downs has always been cause for celebration, and why not? Spring is in the air, the horses are back in town, and most importantly, the Kentucky Derby is only a week away.

Still, opening day under the old Twin Spires has always been somewhat subdued. Not any more: Churchill will open Saturday with a glitzy night program for the first time in track history, an innovation that will try to give new meaning to breaking swiftly from the gate.

Who is the horse to beat?

Brad Free: Dialed In. Mile and one-quarter ideal for improving colt, two-time Derby winner Zito knows how job gets done, low odds main knock.

Marcus Hersh: Dialed In. Win over the track, best overall 2011 form, master Derby trainer, the right running style, and likely ability to get the distance.

Among the surprising prep race winners, which one is for real?

Pants On Fire turned back the promising Nehro in the Louisiana Derby, and Archarcharch also outlasted Nehro in the Arkansas Derby. Nehro, who didn’t win a prep race, may be the most “for real” surprise of all.

Which prep race is most likely to be misinterpreted?

Not one of the most recent major prep races produced a winning Beyer Speed Figure of 100. How does that change the way you will handicap the Derby?

Which horse hasn't won a prep race but can win the Derby?

“Can” win offers a lot of latitude, and given that, I’ll say Nehro, Master of Hounds, and Santiva.

Which horse can't you wait to bet against?

Which horses are live longshots, and what should their approximate odds be?

After Uncle Mo's disappointing third in the Wood Memorial, does he deserve another chance?

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BOYNTON BEACH, Fla. - The Kentucky Derby favorite worked on Thursday. Not just any favorite but one trained by a two time Kentucky Derby winner. But something was definitely missing.

A crowd.