Thu, 05/01/2014 - 10:01

Derby Angles: Litfin on trips

Barbara D. Livingston
Dance With Fate rates serious consideration to land on the board due to his strong finishing ability.

Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The five-part series began with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s  look at “trips,” Marcus Hersh on the impact of post position, and Brad Free’s pace projection.

Thu, 05/01/2014 - 09:20

Hoppertunity scratched from Kentucky Derby due to foot issue

Barbara D. Livingston
Hoppertunity has been sent to the Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital to have his left front foot examined.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Hoppertunity, runner-up to California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby and winner of the Rebel Stakes, was scratched from the Kentucky Derby on Thursday morning because of an issue with his left front foot, trainer Bob Baffert said.

Baffert said he suspects that Hoppertunity merely has a foot bruise, but, for precautionary reasons, he is sending Hoppertunity to the Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky., for a full evaluation with noted veterinarian Dr. Larry Bramlage.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 19:37

King: California Chrome has no flaws

Barbara D. Livingston
California Chrome should be able to gain good early position from post 5.

California Chrome is a Kentucky Derby standout. He’s the fastest horse and also the classiest.

Want speed figures? He has them. He owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, a 107, earned in winning the Santa Anita Derby, and his career-best Beyer, a 108, again tops Saturday’s field for the Kentucky Derby. None of his opponents have ever run higher than a 104.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 19:24

Litfin: Don't knock move from synthetic to dirt

Perhaps the most remarkable running line from the prep races was Dance With Fate vaulting from 11th at the pace call to the lead in midstretch of the Blue Grass Stakes. While it’s become fashionable to knock Polytrack preps such as the Blue Grass and Spiral Stakes, recent Derby winners Street Sense and Animal Kingdom took that route, along with on-the-board finishers such as Hard Spun, Dullahan, and Paddy O’Prado.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 19:07

Watchmaker: California Chrome a no-nonsense pick

Benoit & Associates
California Chrome and jockey Victor Espinoza win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby by 5 1/4 lengths Saturday.

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, every handicapper aspires to be the smartest guy in the room, and wants to pick the double-digit pari-mutuel winner no one else lands on. But for me, this Derby is a little different. My instincts tell me it’s best to not make handicapping this Derby any more difficult than it needs to be, and I’m going with California Chrome .

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 19:06

Welsch: Intense Holiday heading into Derby as good as any

Barbara D Livingston
Intense Holiday's pedigree indicates that 1 1/4 miles is within his scope.

This looks like a Derby in which you have to take a stand, either for or against the favorite, California Chrome, and after watching him train here Wednesday, I’m going to stand against a short-priced favorite in a seemingly wide-open 20-horse field.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 19:03

Pletcher keeping his eye on big picture

Barbara D. Livingston
Todd Pletcher nominated 41 horses to the Triple Crown this year and is running four in the Kentucky Derby.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Expectations for Todd Pletcher are high – higher than that new video board that dominates the backstretch at Churchill Downs. Pletcher is a six-time Eclipse Award winner, trains more horses than anyone in North America and, this year, set a record for Triple Crown nominations with 41, nearly 10 percent of the 413 nominated at the early deadline in January.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 19:02

Jerkens concerned about No. 20 post for Wicked Strong

Barbara D. Livingston
Wicked Strong got a 104 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the Wood Memorial.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Trainer Jimmy Jerkens was enjoying his first Kentucky Derby experience until Wednesday’s post-position draw, where his Wood Memorial winner, Wicked Strong, was assigned post 20 for Saturday’s 140th Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

“I didn’t like it,” Jerkens said afterward. “At least you got a long run to the first turn.”

Since 1930, there have been 14 horses to break from post 20 in the Derby, with Big Brown in 2008 the only one to win from there. Caveat, in 1983, was the only other horse to finish in the top three.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 18:54

Free: Wood repeat makes Wicked Strong a winner

Barbara D. Livingston
Wicked Strong's closing punch should be effective in the Derby.

Wicked Strong has much in his favor, including sharp form, proven class, and a big Beyer Speed Figure (104) earned last month scoring a visually impressive victory in the Grade 1 Wood. His closing style should play well in a field with sufficient speed to run at.

Wed, 04/30/2014 - 18:40

Peck: Derby pace scenario favors California Chrome

Tom Keyser
California Chrome could fall into a nice stalking trip in the Kentucky Derby.

Most years, projecting the race flow for the Kentucky Derby is pretty straightforward, at least on paper: A quick, contested pace will develop, setting up those horses who can take back and make one run. Unearthing the winner has meant finding the horse with the best late kick, or the horse who figures to benefit most from the race flow.