A few weeks ago, I explained that Shared Belief’s unusually low 107 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Antonio Stakes was probably because he was running behind such a slow pace. That should be less of an issue in the Santa Anita Handicap, with confirmed front-runner Moreno and sprinter Crimson Giant in the field.

If Shared Belief does get a reasonable pace up top, I would expect a dream trip, a Beyer north of 110, a runaway win, and even more questions about what would have happened if the horse had not had all those issues at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

“Big” only begins to describe the racing Saturday. We have Shared Belief, the best horse in America, going in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Handicap. We have four significant Kentucky Derby preps – the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe at Santa Anita; the Grade 2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby; the rescheduled Grade 2, $200,000 Swale at Gulfstream; and the Grade 3, $400,000 Gotham at Aqueduct.

San Carlos Stakes

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Ocean Knight
Colt by Curlin–Ocean Goddess, by Stormy Atlantic
(Bred in Kentucky by Thor-Bred Stables; $320,000 purchase by Stonestreet Stables at 2014 OBS March sale of 2-year-olds in training)

Ocean Knight changed course this week to point for Saturday’s Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. The colt posted a victory in the local prep, the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in January, successfully stretching out to 1 1/16 miles to remain unbeaten in two starts.

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – The Grade 2 Swale Stakes, postponed a week after heavy rain forced the cancellation of the second half of last Saturday’s program, will lose one of its major players when the field finally does go to post this Saturday.

Although trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. entered Souper Colossal in the Swale, he said Wednesday the chances are “99 percent” that the colt will forgo the Swale for the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday.

If history is a fair gauge, Carpe Diem will run well Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby – but won’t win.

Carpe Diem is co-owned by WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable. WinStar president Elliott Walden has had four notable Tampa Bay Derby starters as a trainer or stable representative: Menifee, second in 1999; Bluegrass Cat, second in 2006; Any Given Saturday, second in 2007; and Super Saver, the eventual Kentucky Derby winner, ran third in this race in 2010.

OLDSMAR, Fla. – Just as his former longtime boss did last year with Tonalist, trainer Arnaud Delacour wouldn’t mind breaking away from the typecast.

Delacour, who worked for six years for fellow countryman Christophe Clement, will have one of the fringe contenders in Divining Rod in the annual marquee race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday. Like Clement, Delacour has become best known for his work with grass horses, but a big effort would put Divining Rod squarely in the picture for the 141st Kentucky Derby, a 1 1/4-mile dirt race.

OZONE PARK, N.Y. – Trainer Todd Pletcher went into last month’s Withers Stakes with an unheralded maiden winner and came out with yet another Kentucky Derby candidate.

Carpe Diem and Daredevil, both scheduled to make their 3-year-old debuts Saturday, give WinStar Farm – which has an ownership interest in both – at least two strong Kentucky Derby prospects. Both were Grade 1 winners at 2, and both have been working sharply at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher ahead of their comeback races.

Ocho Ocho Ocho, unbeaten in three starts at age 2, is among a bulky field entered Wednesday for Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes, an important prep at Santa Anita Park for both the Santa Anita Derby on April 4 and the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 2.

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