ALBANY, Calif. -- When trainer Doug O'Neill saw that Frank Conversation had drawn post 12 in a 14-horse field for Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields, he had an immediate concern.
"I thought there was a chance we'd be caught a zillion wide," he said of the run to the first turn for the 1 1/8-mile race. "Mario [Gutierrez] did a very good job of getting him into position, so he was just four wide."
OLDSMAR, Fla. – Changes in his equipment, his jockey, and the venue brought out the best in Destin on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs, where the gray colt rallied from just off the pace to win the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths over Rafting. The race was the key local prep for the biggest race of the meet, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12, a race that offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points to its top four finishers.
After the first full day of of betting, the mutuel field was a solid favorite in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The pool opened Friday at noon Eastern and runs through Sunday at 6 p.m.
On win handle of $86,970, the field, the 24th or “all others” option, is the 8-5 favorite, followed by Mohaymen (4-1), Nyquist (6-1), Mor Spirit (12-1), Airoforce (17-1), and Brody’s Cause (17-1).
Pool 1, in which the field closed as the 3-5 favorite, ran Nov. 26-29. Pool 3 is set for March 11-13 and Pool 4 for April 1-3.
The mutuel field was the early favorite in the opening hours of betting into Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opened Friday at noon Eastern for a three-day run.
As of 4 p.m. Eastern, the field, the 24th or “all others” option, was 2-1, followed by Mohaymen (3-1), Nyquist (7-1), Mor Spirit (10-1), Airoforce (16-1), and Brody’s Cause (24-1). The win handle was $47,645.
Pool 2 runs through Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern. Odds are locked in when the pool closes.
The rule that relegated Lecomte Stakes runner-up Tom’s Ready to the also-eligible list last month won’t need to be applied to the Risen Star Stakes when entries are taken Friday and is likely to not be applied to the Louisiana Derby next month.
The second round of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is upon us, opening for wagering Friday and continuing through Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern.
Here are some thoughts on horses in the lineup, those I see as potential overlays and underlays, as well as some notable runners who are part of the mutuel field. Obviously, the soundest practice is to bet as late as possible Sunday to best know the odds since this wager is parimutuel, unlike a future wager at a Las Vegas casino.
I see value in the following – at least based on their morning-line odds:
Trainer Frank Lucarelli has pulled out his red pen in preparation for Saturday’s Grade 3, $300,000 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. Lucarelli will use his pen to draw a line through the last race of Mana Strike, one of 14 3-year-olds in the 1 1/8-mile El Camino Real Derby, run on the Tapeta main track.
The El Camino Real Derby offers 17 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 10-4-2-1 basis.
A rule that nearly excluded the talented 3-year-old Tom’s Ready from the Lecomte Stakes, in which he finished second and earned qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, could come into play again at Fair Grounds when entries are taken for the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes on Friday.
WHO’S HOT
The undefeated Mohaymen is the favorite at 5-1 on the line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, for the inaugural Derby Watch top 20 of 2016. Mor Spirit, the winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last Saturday, is next at 8-1, with Airoforce and Eclipse Award winner Nyquist co-third choices at 10-1. Remember that Derby Watch lists the 20 runners in order of Watchmaker’s future line. Bob Baffert, the trainer of Mor Spirit, and Chad Brown lead all trainers with three runners each among the top 20.
ARCADIA, Calif. – It was just four years ago that trainer Doug O’Neill, jockey Mario Gutierrez, and owner Paul Reddam won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with I’ll Have Another, who parlayed a pair of victories at Santa Anita earlier that year into success in the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
Now the same team is set to embark on another bid at the classics with Nyquist. The differences between what the two colts have accomplished to this point are striking and, in the case of Nyquist, have allowed O’Neill to utilize a prep schedule he finds ideal.
