Yes, post position influences the Kentucky Derby, and so does pace.
But estimating the degree of influence is no easy task. While basic considerations of condition, class, and speed figures are pre-race tangibles, the effect of post and pace are uncertain until after both gates open. The main gate is posts 1-14; auxiliary gate 15-20.
IRISH WAR CRY has done little wrong in his five-race career and enters the Kentucky Derby on the heels of an impressive score in the Wood Memorial on April 8 at Aqueduct. Conditioned by Derby-winning trainer Graham Motion, this son of Curlin rebounded nicely following a major flop in the Fountain of Youth on March 4 at Gulfstream. If a line is drawn through that non-effort, you’re left with a colt who is blemish-free and enters the biggest race of his life with the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (101).
1. Classic Empire
2. Irish War Cry
3. McCraken
4. Gunnevera
CLASSIC EMPIRE showed his class and talent in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in fast time last year and then last month exhibited another skill in taking the Arkansas Derby – the ability to overcome adversity. Those traits make him the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby.
1. Irish War Cry
2. Practical Joke
3. Gormley
4. McCraken
IRISH WAR CRY enters in top form and with the field’s top speed figures. He has an up-front running style, and recent Derby winners have been forwardly placed. Irish War Cry has won four of five starts and established his class by winning graded stakes at two tracks. Lots to like. His impressive victory last out in the Wood Memorial was the result of a perfect trip, which is expected. He usually gets a perfect trip due to his running style.
1. McCraken
2. Practical Joke
3. Lookin At Lee
4. Gunnevera
The road to this year’s Kentucky Derby has been a bumpy one, and even the most accomplished of this 3-year-old crop have managed to find a pothole or two on the way to Louisville.
That inconsistency, when added to a group of 20 3-year-olds who have top Beyer Speed Figures residing in a tight range, makes for a Derby that, while maybe a bit top-heavy, still seems open to one of several different outcomes.
Isabelle de Tomaso says her favorite racecar was a red OSCA 750S. De Tomaso is still fond of horsepower that comes in a red package, only now it has four hooves instead of four tires.
A New Jersey homebred, the chestnut colt Irish War Cry is revving up for the Kentucky Derby for de Tomaso, whose father was the late Amory L. Haskell, the first president and chairman of the Monmouth Park Jockey Club and the namesake of its signature race.
Assessing the pace scenario is one of the more critical aspects of handicapping the Kentucky Derby. Historically, the Derby has featured fast early paces, enabling even the deepest one-run closers a chance to hit the board. Recently, however, the Derby has featured more moderate paces during the early stages, making it very difficult to catch the horses who are forwardly placed throughout. This year’s pace scenario is an intriguing one; below, you’ll find runners grouped based on where they’re likely to reside during Saturday’s race.
FORWARD
CHURCHILL DOWNS Weather: Cloudy
Track: Fast
Temp.: 50
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Time is running out to form those all-important final impressions about this year’s Kentucky Derby field. Each of the 20 horses in the main body of the field was on the track to train Wednesday at Churchill Downs, with the majority of the action taking place, as usual, during the special Oaks-Derby session immediately following the renovation break.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Some of Vinnie Viola’s earliest memories as a child are of going to Aqueduct and Belmont Park with his father, who would put his son right in front of the tote board with specific instructions to watch the fluctuation of odds.
“My father handicapped and bet every day,” Viola said. “He would tell me to try to memorize every change in the last two minutes before post time of every horse. I think it greatly helped me when I got to Wall Street. It made it a lot slower for me as I got comfortable with the movement of numbers to risk.”
