Trainer Michele Boyce saddles Devil's Rose (#8, ML 12-1) in Thursday's eighth race at Arlington Park, an about one-mile allowance on turf. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Boyce is winning at a 27 percent clip in allowances, for a return on investment of $3.02.
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The first Saturday of the Saratoga meet features a stakes doubleheader consisting of the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana and the Grade 3, $150,000 Sanford. There also are two stakes on Del Mar’s card – the Grade 2, $200,000 San Diego Handicap and the $200,000 Fleet Treat Stakes.
Sanford Stakes
Redo It (#3, ML 9-2) returns in Thursday's fifth race at Del Mar, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race on turf. It will be her first start since finishing fourth by two lengths in a maiden special weight race May 16 at Santa Anita. The first-, second-, third-, and fifth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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Thursday’s card at Del Mar opens with a maiden claimer for 2-year-old fillies, and the play is a pick three trying to beat the morning-line favorite in #2 WISH I UNDERSTOOD (5-2). That filly ran third in her debut at Los Alamitos, beating only two horses and earning a Beyer Speed Figure of only 39. Now, trainer Bob Baffert drops her in for a tag in her second career start, and it seems a big red flag that he’s willing to give up on her so soon.
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DRF Bets GamePlan
Closer looks for Del Mar and Gulfstream Park, and spot plays and live longshots for Arlington Park, Canterbury Park, Del Mar, Louisiana Downs, and Penn National. Picks are chronologically listed, so you can build and plan your wagering day.
After starting some Saratoga meets deep in the hole and others loose on the lead, I can tell you Saratoga is a lot more fun when you play from in front. I think my best chance to break on top right out of the gate at this Saratoga meet comes late in Friday’s opening-day card, specifically the late pick four. Here are my thoughts on those late pick four races:
Race 7 – I won’t use her exclusively in this first-level allowance race on the turf, but I know I’m going to lean heavily on Trophee, even if she isn’t going to be all that great a price.
Trainer Andy Mathis saddles Katsfashion (#5, ML 6-1) in Wednesday's eighth race at Del Mar, a one-mile maiden claimer. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Mathis is winning at a 27 percent clip in maiden claiming races, for a return on investment of $4.29.
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I’m willing to go all in on back-to-back singles in trying to take down the early pick five Thursday: ROY H (2) in Race 3 and GRAVITY FORCE (11) in Race 4.
Not sure we’ll get the 5-2 morning line as promised on Roy H, but he’s the likeliest winner in a turf sprint filled with speed to his outside; the turnback from his down-the-hill maiden special weight score combined with his being sharp following a nearly eight-week layoff should have Tyler Baze in a prime stalking spot.
Andy Po Po (#2, ML 6-1) returns in Wednesday's seventh race at Indiana Grand, a 1 1/16-mile allowance on turf. It will be his first start since finishing third by 1 3/4 lengths in an allowance June 12 at Indiana Grand. The first-, fourth-, sixth-, and seventh-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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Week 2 at Del Mar opens with a very contentious card, and I will be looking at different types of races to try to take advantage of the opportunities.
Race 1
(2) Dr. Vincentstein (morning line 5-1). drops a level in class and is the speed of the speed, and despite the efforts of Crazy Al to likely contest the pace, I don’t think he is fast enough early. Sporting sharp works going into this event, if he gets the jump on Crazy Al and Domingo Cat early, he is a threat to wire the field.
