Here is a pick three sequence Friday at Del Mar with wide-open races. It should pay well if it connects without any morning-line favorites on the suggested play.
The middle portion of New York Racing Association cards are, for me, often soft spots between the pick five and early pick four, and the late pick four. Not so at Saratoga on Saturday. I like the pick three sequence starting in race 5 because I think we can get some real prices home in legs two and three.
I am going to try to attack the Del Mar card early as I try to get the weekend off to a profitable start. The plan will be to try to put together a pick three and a couple of daily doubles to get the ball rolling and not have to say, “What was I thinking?” come Monday.
Race 1
The Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga is the battle to see which 3-year-old is the country’s second-best around two turns. Seven were entered, but fewer will run. Regardless of how many run, it should come down to Frosted or Texas Red.
Frosted confirmed his Wood Memorial form (103 Beyer Speed Figure) with terrific efforts in the Kentucky Derby (100) and Belmont Stakes (98). A son of Tapit, Frosted was the only horse to make any kind of move in the Derby when fourth, just behind third-place Dortmund. He was 4-1 in the Belmont Stakes because of that Derby move.
Saratoga “only” has one Grade 1 and three Grade 2 events on its Saturday card. The Grade 1 event is the $350,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, but the richest race on the program is the $600,000 Jim Dandy, the local springboard to the Travers on Aug. 29.
There also are big doings at Del Mar and Mountaineer. Del Mar’s feature is the Grade 1, $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch, which lured Beholder, the two-time champ who is again the top older female racehorse in the nation. Mountaineer has an all-stakes, nine-race card topped by the Grade 2, $750,000 West Virginia Derby.
The second half of the Thursday card at Saratoga holds no appeal for me, and my Saratoga play on Thursday ends with the early pick four in race 6. Races 3 and 5 are interesting, but both look tough, with multiple contenders, and the key to my wagering day will come in race 4, the John Morrissey, a New York-bred dirt sprint.
For those playing the pick five and the early pick four, Thursday’s fifth race will be a blind item. But I’ll use the turf sprint for maiden 2-year-old fillies as a starting-off point for an all-turf pick three play, casting a wide net and looking to get a price home.
Every horseplayer knows what it’s like to come across a card where horses seem to jump off the page at you. Friday’s card at Saratoga is like that for me. I think this card has a nice mix of price horses worth taking a shot with and logical horses that look downright solid. I might wind up pitching a shutout, but if I do, at least I’ll go down with horses I like.
These are the races that appeal most to me:
Trainer Danny Gargan saddles Native Gold (#2, ML 4-1) in Wednesday's 10th race at Saratoga, a seven-furlong claiming race. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Gargan is winning at a 33 percent clip in sprints, for a return on investment of $4.62.
Check out the Positive ROI report as part of DRF Plus.
Today’s featured Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga looks like a showdown between the two obvious favorites: Judy the Beauty, last year’s Eclipse Award winner as champion female sprinter, and La Verdad, a six-furlong specialist with a career record of 13 for 19. They’re even-money and 8-5 on the morning line in a five-horse field without a plausible upsetter.