STATESMAN
Trainer: Cliff Sise
Last race: Nov. 12, 1st
Finish: 2nd by 1/2
Beyer: 87
A second-start maiden, this 3-year-old Candy Ride colt from Grade 1 winner Tranquility Lake broke slowly, finished more than 11 lengths clear of third, and is sitting on a maiden win next out.

Saturday, November 14

Aqueduct - Red Smith Handicap (race 7)

COMMENT: Mr Maybe stamped himself a horse to watch come 2016 as the son of Ghostzapper made it three straight romping wins in a row, despite an unfavorable race shape. He sat last early, saving ground as War Dancer set a dawdling pace, swung wide going to the far turn to launch his run, and produced a strong rally that carried him to an easy win. The victory was the third straight for Mr Maybe and second since being transferred to trainer Chad Brown.

Trainer Alan Goldberg saddles Paddle Board (#7, ML 20-1) in Sunday's eighth race at Woodbine, the seven-furlong Bessarabian Stakes on the all-weather track. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Goldberg is winning at a 35 percent clip when saddling a horse switching from route to sprint, for a return on investment of $4.11. 

Skill Not Luck (#4, 6-1) returns in Saturday's sixth race at Aqueduct, a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer on turf. It will be his first start since finishing second by 1 1/4 lengths in a claiming race Sept. 23 at Belmont Park. The first-, third-, and fifth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.

A pair of competitive races scheduled for turf bookend a pick three play in the middle of Aqueduct’s Sunday program.

Race 5 – IN TROUBLE (2) will be favored as he continues to slide down the claiming ranks, but he hasn’t gone long since the 2014 Louisiana Derby and has run only once on grass. We’ll also use MODEL CITIZEN (4), CHANG’S SECRET (7), and DOWNGOESFRAZIER (8).
A – 2, 7
B – 4, 8

Sunday’s card at Del Mar doesn’t whet the appetite in a major way, but there are a few interesting opportunities for horseplayers. I’ll look to play a midcard daily double as well as the Sunday feature, the Desi Arnaz Stakes.

DEL MAR, Calif. – Maybe, just maybe, the Saturday card at Del Mar includes one logical horse on whom to make a reasonable gamble.

If so, it is not in race 1. HOME SCHOOL is the top choice and program favorite. But he is as phony as the day is long. The gelding has made 19 starts in the U.S. His only U.S. win was a slow-paced N1X.

Trainer Brian Michael saddles Six Spot (#6, ML 10-1) in Friday's fourth race at Churchill Downs, a 1 1/8-mile claiming race on turf. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Michael is winning at a 26 percent clip in route races, for a return on investment of $3.98.

The early part of Saturday's card at Aqueduct is dominated by short fields, but things get more interesting late. The late pick four with a $200,000 guaranteed pool begins in race 6, and it is anchored by a wide-open edition of the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap.

Sometimes you try to steal a shot and somehow everyone else catches on before you can cash in, but we are not complaining that Piracy, our Pick last week, was pounded down to favoritism and scampered off with a fairly impressive win at $5.2 at Churchill Downs. She was one of 13 BreezeFigs runners who broke their maidens last week from coast to coast and north to south: There were two others at Churchill, three at Aqueduct, two at Gulfstream West, and solos at Del Mar, Finger Lakes, Golden Gate, Laurel and Zia.