LOUISVILLE, Ky. – There is stakes action galore for horseplayers on Saturday, with 10 graded races, including two Grade 1s in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct and the Hollywood Derby at Del Mar. Of all these graded stakes, it is the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup that has this handicapper most excited to bet. I see value on a locally based runner in a race where out-of-towners figure to garner the overwhelming share of mutuel support.

So, let’s get to handicapping that race and a couple of graded stakes for 2-year-old fillies that also should offer a little bit of value.

The multirace gods bestowed a four-figure pick three upon us recently, so let’s invest some of it back in Friday’s late pick four.

Race 6
There are reasons to suspect that AQUARIUS (1) and/or HALF DREAMIN (2) might like the turf-to-dirt switch. Otherwise, little separates the uninspiring triumvirate of PARADISE PEAK (5), LILIKOI (6), and STONE SUPPLIER (8).
A – 1, 2
B – 5, 6, 8

Trainer Mike Salvaggio saddles Quality Investment (#5, ML 6-1) in Wednesday's fifth race at Penn National, a six-furlong maiden special weight race. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Salvaggio is winning at a 30 percent clip when saddling a horse making its second start, for a return on investment of $6.70.

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Chief of State (#3, ML 6-1) returns in Wednesday's first race at Aqueduct, a six-furlong maiden special weight race. It will be his first start since finishing third by four lengths in a maiden special weight race July 12 at Belmont Park. The first- and second-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.

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Here are some thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day card at Churchill Downs.

Race 6
When last seen in the middle of May, it appeared that GAMBLER’S GHOST (#2, 3-1 morning line) was beginning to fulfill his potential. A $150,000 purchase, Gambler’s Ghost ran a quick 93 Beyer Speed Figure when handling $50,000 claimers in professional fashion and was flattered when two of the horses he dusted returned to win.

TALE OF MIST
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Last race: Nov. 22, 6th
Finish: 3rd by 7 3/4
Beyer: 74
Racing with Lasix for the first time, this second-time starter turned in an improved effort in the faster division of a one-mile maiden special weight for 2-year-olds.

11/21

A Pick-3 on R6-8

If PATRIOTIC DIAMOND (9) can just get away cleanly from her outside post when adding blinkers and dropping in class, she ought to prove best with Rafael Bejarano up to prevail in R6 and get this late pick 3 under way. There can be little doubt THE PIZZA MAN (6) is the horse to beat in the Hollywood Turf Cup (R7), but just in case, I’ll use CLASS LEADER (1) and UP WITH THE BIRDS (2) as upsetters. The R8 finale is waaay wide-open, so I’ll spread liberally and hope to catch a decent price.

Saturday, November 21

Churchill - Cardinal Handicap (race 10)

COMMENT: Button Down, second in the Grade 2 Canadian at Woodbine Sept. 13 and fifth in the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor there Oct. 18, made a class drop pay off, winning as the favorite. She sat midpack as Invading Humor set the pace, edged closer going to the far turn, swung wide on the turn to launch her bid, and surged past her rivals. Lady Fog Horn, a winner of 6 of her last 7, all at Tampa Bay Downs and Indiana Downs, handled a big class hike with aplomb.

I’m a fool for Thanksgiving racing. I have been since I was young, when my dad and I would drive down for the morning Thanksgiving Day card at Lincoln Downs or Narragansett and still be back in time to catch the holiday dinner my poor mom worked so hard on.

Nowadays, the main and obvious appeal to Thanksgiving racing is it is the last big blowout of truly major coast-to-coast stakes action until a month or so into next year. And this week’s stakes action is coming up huge.