With a new year comes a clean slate for most players. It’s a time to start over and set solid objectives for the coming year. Before I move forward, I need to examine where I am today.
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DRF Past Performances
Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita have the best winter racing in the country, though that superiority is even more pronounced than usual this Saturday. The two tracks are the only ones with graded stakes Saturday, with Gulfstream running three and Santa Anita two.
Angel Cruz is an Eclipse Award finalist for outstanding apprentice jockey for the second year in a row following a first half of 2015 in which he won the spring riding title at Aqueduct. Cruz also won the first four stakes races of his career before losing his apprentice allowance on May 18, 2015.
Once again, Todd Pletcher’s name stood atop the training leaderboard in 2015, as he ranked first in North American earnings (more than $26.2 million), Grade 1 stakes victories (15), graded stakes victories (47), and stakes victories (71).
Despite a banner year from trainers Chad Brown and Bob Baffert, neither could match him in those statistical categories, with Pletcher earning $6 million more than Brown and $10 million more than Baffert, albeit with more starters than the other two trainers.
Horses to Watch at Aqueduct for the week of Jan. 4:
AGAWA
Trainer: Chris Englehart
Last race: Jan. 3, 3rd
Finish: 3rd by 10 1/4
Beyer: 69
Checked in tight along the inside approaching the far turn while making her first start since July; veteran mare likes some moisture in the track.
SAFE PASSAGE
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last race: Jan. 3, 6th
Finish: 3rd by 3 1/2
Beyer: 56
TARA’S TANGO
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Last race: Dec. 30, 6th
Finish: 4th by 6 1/4
Beyer: 75
This Grade 2-placed filly was only prepping in a sprint stakes. Outrun early over a speed-favoring surface, she finished well and galloped out with run. Follow on the stretch-out.
Saturday, January 2nd
Aqueduct - Jerome (race 8)
COMMENT: Flexibility got away from the highly rated sophomore Mohaymen, who beat him in the Grade 2 Nashua and Grade 2 Remsen, and not only flattered that guy but joined everyone’s Derby watch list with a smart victory. He got a dream trip stalking in fourth as Vorticity set a decent pace, moved wide to launch his run going into the far turn, and had little trouble taking command and drawing off for the easy win. Trainer Chad Brown wasn’t sure of his next assignment.
ARCADIA, Calif. – The idea is to wager on horses who have a greater chance than their odds. The trouble is that the betting market "prices” horses with uncanny accuracy. The public usually gets it right.
Horses who start at 4-5 win slightly less than half the time; horses who start at 8-5 win about one in three. Overlays are rare in the lower odds range. But in the higher odds range, mistakes do happen, like a 20-1 shot who should be closer to 12-1, or a 6-1 shot who should be 4-1.
Pick three, races 6-8
ROCKANTHAROS (9) was considered for the Santa Ynez Stakes on Saturday but evidently will scratch from that Grade 2 race for a much better spot as she comes favorably drawn in the outside post against fellow maidens as a single in Race 6.