Maybe you can find a solid single in the late pick four, races 8-11, on Friday at Belmont. I can’t. I almost got there with BY THE MOON (#9) in race 11, and she has wound up a lone A on this ticket, but she ran her very best last out, and it’s just reasonable not to expect her to run her very best two races in a row. She can win with something slightly less, but there are dangers.

:: See Marcus Hersh’s pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets

Here’s the whole sequence:

Saturday’s early pick five at Belmont has a guaranteed pool of $500,000.  It is also a sequence that many will be treating as a pick four with Songbird looming a heavy favorite in the final leg, the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. 

The New York/Met Mile double at Belmont Park on Friday and Saturday is one that, in my estimation, won’t pay a ton of money. That being said, the opportunity to press my strongest opinion can make this a reasonable play. I’ll be using two horses in the New York and only one in the Met - here’s the play:

Race 5:

Salmanazar (#7)
Earned a field-best 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut.
The runner-up in his last race came back to break his maiden by 8 lengths.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Todd Pletcher is 11 for 27 (41%) with a $2.42 ROI with 2-year-old debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints with John Velazquez riding.
2-1 on ML
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Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:48 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs

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Grade 1 Belmont Stakes | 1 1/2M, 3-year-olds | Belmont Park, Race 11, 6:37 p.m. (ET)
Top Selection: Patch (#12)

The Belmont Stakes drew a hefty field of 12 but does not include the winner of either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. Six different horses comprised the trifectas from the two races, and among those runners, only Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee and Preakness show horse Senior Investment are in the field. Neither has much early speed, but that may not be a bad thing in light of the TimeformUS Pace Projector.

The Belmont Stakes features a group of 3-year-olds who are either inconsistent, unproven at the graded-stakes level, or a combination of the two. With Wednesday’s defection of last year’s juvenile male champion, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry was made the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite, but it wouldn’t be a stunner to see other horses vie for favoritism as post time approaches.

The dynamic of this year’s Belmont Stakes, especially from a wagering standpoint, changed dramatically shortly before the post-position draw with the sudden and unfortunate withdrawal of Preakness runner-up Classic Empire. With the likely odds-on favorite out of the lineup, several key contenders who might have offered some value on the tote will now wind up short prices themselves, most notably Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry.

Even following the announcement Wednesday morning that juvenile champion Classic Empire would not enter the Belmont Stakes due to a foot abscess, there still remains ample speed for a race at 1 ½ miles. Five of the 12 entrants are horses that prefer to race up close -- Meantime, Irish War Cry, Epicharis, Gormley, and Twisted Tom -- likely assuring no speed horse will get away with stealing the Belmont.

Of the five speedy types only longshot Meantime looks to be a need-the-lead type, with the others appearing most comfortable in pressing or stalking roles.