Jan. 6

Santa Anita
Sham (race 5)

Grade 3, $100,345 Sham Stakes, one mile, Santa Anita, Jan. 6, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: McKinzie, by Street Sense
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owners: Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, Paul Weitman
Beyer Speed Figure: 97

Brett Davis:

R1:  5-3-11-4

R2:  9-5-6-4

R3: 4-12-1-5

R4: 10-4-6-2

R5: 1-7-3-6

R6: 10-6-7-1

R7: 3-2-5-4

R8: 12-8-3-10

R9: 3-2-1-11

R10: 14-8-4-13

Best Bet: R2 no9   Equity Doctrine  

Longshot: R1 n5   People's Champion

Best Play: R6   Q/QP   6,7,10

Paul Lally:

R1: 6-12-3-13

R2: 5-11-8-1

R3: 4-8-6-12

R4: 3-4-6-10

R5: 1-3-7-6

R6: 6-1-13-8

R7: 4-5-2-3

R8: 12-10-8-6

R9: 2-8-3-1

R10: 8-11-4-5

Here’s my handicapping analysis and wagering strategy for the late pick five Saturday at Gulfstream – a potentially high-reward 50-cent wager with a 15 percent takeout.

Race 7

Up first is the Kitten’s Joy, a 7 1/2-furlong turf stakes for 3-year-olds in which Fast Boat (#5) and Flamaway (#1) are the most likely winners and therefore “A” plays in DRF’s TicketMaker program. The former won his maiden nicely over this course, hinting of stakes promise, while the latter is battle tested in more imposing stakes than this one.

Before you get started on the Rainbow 6, here’s a pick-five play to start the Sunday card at Gulfstream in which I’ll be relying on Chad Brown to win race 2 with the newly gelded Carbon Data, who adds blinkers on a token class drop after having been regrouped.

I’ll single Carbon Data while surrounding him with an assortment of favorites and longshots in the other four races in the sequence. Here’s a quick synopsis of each race:

Two stakes races – one on dirt for 3-year-olds and one on turf for older horses – highlight the Saturday card at Santa Anita. The Sham has a very likely winner entered, but I’m willing to take a stab against him with an intriguing alternative. The San Gabriel features a competitive field and presents a number of options if you’re looking to go against the favorites.

SHAM

Santa Anita | Race 5 | Post Time 2:30 p.m. (PT) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

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The long road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby begins with Saturday’s Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita, the first graded stakes race for 3-year-olds this season. Seventeen qualifying points are on the line (10 for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, and 1 for fourth).

Cold where you are? Join the club. The week’s BreezeFigs activity was limited somewhat due to weather conditions but Esperanza Diamond, our Pick “key” last week, did warm some cockles of the heart with a good second at solid odds to complete a $40 exacta. Elsewhere nine BreezeFigs maidens broke through to the winner’s circle—five as 2-year-olds, four as newly-turned sophomores.

PADDOCK PICK

Trainer: Brian Koriner
Last race: Dec. 26, 2nd
Finish: 3^rd by 1 1/2
Beyer: 75
Maiden by first-crop stallion Graydar, he finally ran to his works, setting a strong pace before tiring in 7f MSW. Set for front-running maiden win.

Wintry weather across the country has greatly affected the national racing landscape, as jurisdictions such as New York, Maryland, and Pennsylvania have been forced to reschedule or cancel races the past two weeks. Unfortunately for people living in those areas, there doesn’t appear to be any relief on the way soon.

The good news for racing fans: It looks like Florida and California should be in good shape this weekend, so Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita will get the lion’s share of my attention.

Kitten’s Joy