Historically, horses exiting the UAE Derby haven’t fared well at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, but things could be different in 2018. MENDELSSOHN was exceptional when winning this year’s UAE Derby on March 31 at Meydan, scoring by more than 18 lengths for trainer Aidan O’Brien. While it’s true that Mendelssohn took advantage of a speed-favoring strip, there are other reasons to believe his talent is uncommon and he possesses the ability to win the Kentucky Derby.
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DRF Past Performances
JUSTIFY enters this Derby as the favorite with some things working against him from a seasoning standpoint, but his overall talent seems undeniable and his three starts are all faster than anything most of his competition has managed to run. He did get loose on the lead when posting that top figure in the Santa Anita Derby, but he didn’t exactly walk up there, and he turned away one of the better horses in this crop with little fuss in the stretch.
After Justify won the Santa Anita Derby and posted his third consecutive triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, Santa Anita morning-line maker Jon White asked me if I knew how many horses had started their careers with three triple-digit Beyers. I did not know the answer, but was thinking it could not be many.
SHOW GIRL
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last race: April 29, 11th
Finish: 3rd by 3/4
Beyer: 69
She lacked a clear run through the stretch in a seven-furlong maiden special en route to finishing a lapped-on third as the favorite following a three-month absence.
Race 3:
Show Me the Bucks (#2)
Beat the favorite, Almithmaar, when the two met in their respective debuts.
Ran better than it seems last time given the speed-favoring surface (note the red color-coded Race Rating box in the PPs).
His dam handled route distances and he gets some stamina from sire Tiz Wonderful.
3-1 on ML
Each week, TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski takes a look back at the weekend’s graded stakes and releases the TimeformUS Speed Figures for these races.
Santa Anita
G2 Californian S
1/2 123
3/4 121
Fin 124
Top 3: Dr. Dorr 123, Prince of Arabia 115, The Lieutenant 115
Note: Dr. Dorr has won three in a row after dropping his first race as a new gelding; field was not the level normally seen for a Grade 2.
BAKERSFIELD SOUND
Trainer: Neil Drysdale
Last race: April 27, race 1
Finish: 1st by 3 3/4 lenghts
Beyer: 85
Well-bred gelding set strong fractions winning his career debut at a mile on turf. Sibling to stakes winners Pacific Heat, Long Hot Summer tough right back in Cal-bred N1X.
Pick four, races 6-9
Not my favorite pick-four sequence of all time, and accordingly, I will keep play to a relative minimum, going with a $24 ticket.
It’s win or go home in race 6, the opening leg, with Temple Princess (#7), who has plausible excuses (dirt last out, down the hill two back) for her last two races and three back ran into the very good filly Paved and others in a turf MSW. Suffice it to say, there are no Paveds in this $50K maiden claimer, just a couple other “logicals” who’ve already shown they can lose at the class.
Sun, 04/29/2018 - 12:21
Belmont Park | Race 4 | Post Time 3:09 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs