Small fields = winning favorites?

A quirk will be tested Sunday at Santa Anita. Five-horse fields are offered in five of the eight races. Another chalk-fest? Since racing resumed March 29, favorites are undefeated (7-for-7) in fields with five starters or less.

Perhaps small fields produce a higher percentage of winning favorites anyway, but the recent trend is severe compared to the early part of the meet. From Dec. 26 through March 3, favorites won 41 percent of races with five starters or less. Races with six starters or more, favorites won 34 percent.

Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 3:36 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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The fields at Santa Anita are a bit light on Sunday afternoon, including the main event, the Grade 3 Tokyo City Cup. While it may be difficult to find giant prices, there do appear to be some interesting candidates for moderate win wagers scattered throughout the card. Here are three horses to consider Sunday at Santa Anita.

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Race 4: Duncastle (#6)

His two best efforts have come on turf and he finally gets back on that surface.

Gets a positive trainer and rider switch off the claim.

Ran better than it appears in his most recent turf effort last September, making a premature wide move.

6-1 on ML

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Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 5:21 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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The weather for Arkansas Derby Day suggests racegoers would do well to bring their arks. I mean, it looks really, really bad, with severe thunderstorms possible and a few inches (yep, a few) on top of the heavy rain already forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning.

Given that, I’m going to take things easy in terms of betting plans. Here are $32 worth of middle pick-four (races 5-8) plays I’ll put in – pending scratches, of course. I’m swerving the shortest prices in all these races, and anything that hits will pay well enough.

Race 5

Keeneland | Race 9 | Post Time 5:34 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Race 1: Driven to Compete (#4)

Earned a respectable 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his return at Parx despite losing at odds of 2-1.

The two horses who dueled with him last time lost by margins of 16 and 19 lengths.

Should appreciate stretching back out to the one-mile distance at which he owns two wins.

3-1 on ML

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Oaklawn Park | Race 11 | Post Time 7:43 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 5:15 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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