David's Analysis: 

The action begins with this 2-year-old maiden opener where a couple runners have already shown ability in prior starts. #7 West Beach is clearly the one to beat, having earned a respectable 70 Beyer on debut. However, he got a very good trip, saving ground while placed close to a slow pace. I’m not as convinced with him as I am others for this stretch-out in distance, and wanted to look elsewhere for value.

I’m most interested in #2 Simulate coming out of that same June 23 race. He struck me as one that was just getting some experience and would do better with added distance second time out. He never had a chance to close into a slow pace, but was still striding out well through the stretch, looking like one with the reach to his stride to suggest longer would be better. His pedigree confirms that, since second dam Greenery was a turf marathoner, and the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winning router Lea. He’s the one I most want to bet here.

However, I don’t want to disregard some new faces on this surface. #5 States’ Rights is another who was giving off distinct route vibes on debut. He has to make the surface switch to grass, but his dam was a 3-time winner on turf, and Cherie DeVaux does well with second time starters generally.

Among the firsters, I’m most afraid of #3 Atomic Age. This son of Justify hails from the female family of Constitution, and is out of a dam who is a full-sister to fast maiden winner Be You. Those are dirt influences, but Justify has shown himself to be proficient turf sire. Watching a couple of this colt’s workouts, he really seemed to be striding out well in the lone turf move, and even held his own against a clearly talented workmate in the dirt drill on July 14. I’m expecting him to run well, but he may not be much of a price.

Mike's Response: 

We see this race very similarly and I have little to add. I am against West Beach and thought Simulate was worth a shot at a price. 

(D) = David's wagers; (M) = Mike's wagers

Mike's Analysis: 

I can't see myself getting heavily involved in this state-bred MSW for older runners. There are three first time starters to look at, and the experienced runners in the field have combined for 28 starts without reaching the Beyer par for this kind of race (79). I suppose #3 Iron Man Ira is the one to beat right back, despite failing at odds-on vs a couple of these same rivals last time going a mile. He was rated from the gate that day to try stalking tactics, and I do expect Irad to get more aggressive with him this time – not that any of that makes me want him at another short price. 

I took one of the horses exiting that 6/15 race, while David will make a case for the other. #5 Tinebar was a first time starter that day, and he made a move to contention before weakening in the stretch over a distance that is hard on a firster. It's not like he has so much to find in this spot - unless one of the newcomers has some talent - but I also doubt that he will offer much value. 

David's Response: 

I haven’t liked the way #3 Iron Man Ira has finished off his races and didn’t trust him at a short price for a barn that has been very quiet since the start of the meet.

Watching back those recent races at this level, I though #7 Sorority Prank had run better than the favorite each time they met. I don’t care about the turf race last time, and he’s done well to overcome tardy starts in his dirt races before that. I’m not as concerned about him breaking a little slowly from an outside post here, and I like the turnback to 7 furlongs. His 0-for-11 record should ensure a square price, and I just think he’s logical.

I’m also afraid of firsters, of which #6 Noonzio might be the most interesting. There isn’t a ton of pedigree here, but he shows some decent workouts for the debut.

David's Analysis: 

The entry makes plenty of sense in this claiming puzzle. #1A Amundson is probably the stronger half as he seeks his fourth consecutive victory. He’s proven at this level and loves the 7 furlongs. An outside draw should also help a horse who is no longer as sharp out of the gate as he once was. Yet I don’t want to discount #1 Market Alert, who has also been consistent since the Mertkan Kantarmaci claim. I’m not against him, but their merits are fairly obvious.

I thought there were a couple of alternate directions to go. I certainly considered #9 Charlie Five O, who I know Mike has some interest in as well. This horse was in career-best form heading into the spring, showing a new dimension to win from off the pace in April before putting in a game effort against talented 3-year-old Proprietary Trade at Monmouth. I won’t be too hard on him for his last since he was glued to the rail and that race featured an outside flow. I do wonder how long he can hold this form, but since he also has plenty of races that give him no chance here, but he figures to be a decent price.

I ultimately put #4 Natural Harbor on top. He’s another with some things to prove, since he ran his fastest races off the initial trainer switch to Linda Rice and might have tailed off a bit since then. However, I can also make some excuses for him, since he was shuffled back from the rail on Feb. 4, and then was outrun going a distance that’s too short for him last time. I think he can make better use of his tactical speed going this 7-furlong trip, and Linda Rice has good stats with horses going from allowance to claiming races.

Mike's Response: 

I was between the entry and #9 Charlie Five O, and I didn't want to go deeper in this race. Charlie Five O has speed but is capable from off the pace. He is the price I want, though I expect the entry to be tough.

Mike's Analysis: 

All eyes will be on #5 Speak Easy in this race as he makes his first start since running off pre-race and being scratched from the Fountain of Youth back in early March (he was around 6/5 into favored Dornoch at the time). Starting back at six furlongs struck me as a little odd, though he did have plenty of speed en route to earning a 100 Beyer winning his seven-furlong debut. David and I both "picked" against him, but he is a very likely winner.

I don't want to spend too much time talking about alternatives. I am going to make a small wager on #8 Edified based on his debut as a 2-year-old. I was taken by the way he won that race without the benefit of a clean trip, and thought he was a juvenile of some potential. That assessment was clearly wrong, though he only sprinted once last year after that, and he was totally eliminated at the start of the Saratoga Special when crushed from both sides out of the gate. He has no fast races but made his return in a tough spot last time, where he chased wide and stayed gamely for third.

David's Response: 

Adding to Mike’s concerns with #5 Speak Easy, I haven’t been sure what to make of his recent workouts. He’s looked second-best in company with 4YO filly Bandita, who looked to possess exceptional talent in her lone start well over a year ago. Yet this colt is hardly a flashy work horse, especially for one that will be such a short price.

My idea taking a shot against the favorite is a little more obvious. #4 Mariachi was chasing a pretty fast pace last time in a race dominated by the improving 3YO Jefferson Street. That was his return from a layoff for John Kimmel, whose horses typically do better with a start under their belts. This is also his second start as a gelding, so perhaps he can finally deliver on the potential he showed early in his career.

David's Analysis: 

I don’t really have anything against the recent form of #4 Who’s the King, who should be tough for this group to handle if he repeats his last effort. He registered an excellent 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure finishing second against a pretty solid field of allowance horses. The only problem is that he was 36-1 that day and you’re going to take a much shorter price now that his form is exposed. He’s still the one to beat as he takes advantage of his starter eligibility.

I was on the fence about #1 Have You Heard, so I’ll let Mike make the case for that one.

The horse that interested me as an alternative to this favorite is #3 Strapped, who might be the bigger price of two Linda Rice trainees in this field. He’s had trouble staying on the racetrack recently, but I’m encouraged that Rice hasn’t dropped him in for a tag since breaking his maiden. He ran deceptively well on Oct. 7 to close for second over a track that was a little tilted towards speed. He then got a nightmare trip when he returned on May 18. He stumbled and got checked back at the start, which put him at the back early. He was advancing on the turn but then lost his path at the quarter pole, forcing him to alter course. He actually finished with good interesting all things considered.

Mike's Response: 

I always liked #1 Have You Heard when he was with his original connections, even though he failed to break through. He is 2 for 2 on dirt since the Maker claim and has stretched out effectively. While I do think that this distance might be tough for him to get, I am not sold on the shorter prices and wanted someone else in this field. If Irad money shows up I'll pass but at the ML odds I can take a shot with him. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I have been wondering why #6 Skelly has not taken a shot at a big race over here for well over a year and am interested to see what he does in his first Grade 1 attempt. I get that he didn't make it into June last year after ripping off seven straight wins (five with triple-digit Beyers); and I guess the plan for the first part of this year was to shoot for a big purse overseas. Fair enough. I like him, but am concerned with how he has been campaigned, and I also do not like that he hasn't been sharp from the gate in any of his starts since returning from Saudi Arabia - though maybe drawing the outside post helps him here. I like him and view him as the clear horse to beat, but I am trying someone else. 

It's not #4 Baby Yoda, who seems likely to get bet for all the wrong reasons. 

David can go more in depth on #5 Subrogate if he wants. I think he's pretty good but am not betting him in here, either. 

I realize that #1 Nakatomi still lacks a major win as a now-5-year-old, but he has held his own with top sprinters for a couple of years now, and he might finally be in the right spot to pick up a graded-stakes win. Trips are important to him, and he hasn't gotten very lucky in that department in any of his last three starts, but he is no plodder and I thought he was the right alternative.

David's Response: 

Mike articulated all of the same concerns I have about #6 Skelly, but I ultimately couldn’t find a suitable alternative that I thought would offer sufficient value. I agree that drawing outside should make Skelly’s recent gate problems less of an issue this time. He ran well even in defeat in his last race, as those who chased him early have already come back to register vastly improved speed figures in their next starts. If he holds his form, he’s going to be a handful.

As for #5 Subrogate, I considered him as an alternative, but I wonder if his tendency to hang on his left lead will eventually limit him as he steps up in class.

David's Analysis: 

I’m excited for the 2-year-old races this weekend at Saratoga because it feels like we could see some talented runners, and that’s especially true of this maiden event. #1 Invictus is likely to attract plenty of attention as a $1.2 million son of Into Mischief out of Grade 1 winner Serengeti Empress. The lone glimpse of a workout video of him suggested that he’s an impressive physical, but I doubt there’s much value in taking him here.

#4 Chancer McPatrick is reportedly working well for his debut. I haven’t been thrilled with what I’ve seen from progeny of McKinzie so far, but this colt’s second dam is Grade 1 Alcibiades winner Dream Empress. He would be no surprise. The same can be said of #10 Tiztastic, who looks like a towering juvenile in his workouts, suggesting that he may be one who ultimately wants more ground than this. He’s got an interesting pedigree, being very closely inbred to Tapit. Asmussen is clearly dangerous with these types.

Bill Mott sends out a pair of runners, and I don’t think his experienced entrant #2 T Kraft is without a chance at a bigger price. This horse participated in a fast maiden event on debut and was a little green that day as he was trying to find his stride taking kickback around the far turn. He didn’t really finish, but he might be capable of better second time out.

My top pick is Mott’s firster #9 Tharhom, who looks well meant in his debut. The videos I’ve seen of him, all from over a month ago, suggest that he’s a precocious sort with a big, floating stride. It’s no surprise they paid $650k for him as a son of Global Campaign when you watch that sales workout. Mott can be successful with firsters and he’s drawn well outside going this distance.

Mike's Response: 

I'm never going to make a big bet on a race like this, especially when I like firsters. I was either going to take the 9 or the 10 on top, and went with Tiztastic mostly due to Asmussen's excellent overall history with horses like this - though he has been awfully quiet up here this summer. 

One horse that David didn't highlight that I will be using is #5 Fiddling Felix. This horse was very green in his debut and ran in spots after steadying away from the gate. He is the type that often improves quickly from that kind of experience, and he will be a price here after getting bet in the debut.

Mike's Analysis: 

I had no real argument with #1 Scarlet Poppy being the one to beat, but she had a pretty good trip last time when close to a modest pace. I wanted #7 Lamorna out of that race and will use her. David can flesh out the case for her since I know he also likes her.

One horse I will use at a price is #8 Day Dawning. She showed speed in her debut on dirt and made it to the eighth pole before fading. She switched to turf last time and received a terrible ride before settling for third. 

I took #4 Arrasou on top. She was rained off twice last summer and wound up running well on dirt both times. She is bred to be a turf horse, and I wasn't sure who I was supposed to be afraid of in here, assuming she is ready off the bench. For what it's worth, Chad has excellent numbers with horses like this. 

David's Response: 

Mike mentioned the lack of pace in that June 28 maiden affair, and that’s why I prefer #7 Lamorna from that race. Her lack of speed always puts her in a tough early position, but she was never given a chance last time after dropping so far back. Junior Alvarado had her buried in traffic and then she lost momentum when steadied at the quarter pole, basically ending her race there. She had run well up here last summer, and has a better chance to catch some pace in these 5 1/2 furlong turf sprints.

The other horse I had mild interest in was #6 Satin Blue, who does seem like she’s really improved racing on dirt lately even though her connections have been trying to get her back on turf. She gets to the grass here, and might be ready to produce some better form than we saw from her last year.

David and Mike's Late Pick-5

Both handicappers combine their opinions to put together a Pick-5 wager using the ABC method, outlined below. (Total wagers: $129)

Race: A / B / C
R8:  4,7 / 1,8 / 6
R9:  1,11 / 2 / 3,8,12
R10:  1 / -- / 3,5
R11:  4,5,9 / 2 / --
R12:  4,8 / 10 / 5,6,9

David's Analysis: 

I’m inclined to take a shot against #12 Risk Tolerance at what could be a short price. At the time he seemed like a Chad Brown debut winner with a bright future, but that race he won hasn’t aged so well looking back. He also enjoyed an absolutely perfect trip to get the job done, just riding the rail into the lane. Now he’s drawn in the far outside post and will likely have to adapt to a different trip.

I actually prefer the other Chad Brown entrant #2 Main Beach. He might have beaten a field that was just as good as his stablemate when he won at Monmouth last time, and he did so despite greenly swapping leads when put to pressure in the stretch. He’s drawn well inside, but the only drawback is that he could attract Irad money.

#8 West Hollywood is another likely short price that obviously merits some respect. I’m not quite sure what to do with the Churchill Downs form on turf, but he did run wellin both starts since coming to the U.S. for Brad Cox. He just got very good trips racing prominently each time and now he lands in a race that is supposed to feature a little more pace.

#3 Navy Seal is one that I spent some time considering, but he’s a tough horse to peg. I won’t hold his dirt race for Wesley Ward against him since he’s probably better on turf. He didn’t run badly in a few tough spots overseas, but I also didn’t get the sense that he’s anything special. I’m interested to see how he does with this switch to American turf racing.

The one I want is #11 Tifareeh, and I can see Mike share some of my interest in this horse. I thought he ran really well in his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream back in February, hitting his best stride late over a course that doesn’t really favor his style. That race has aged well, with winner In a Jam going on to win a stakes and runner-up Trikari becoming a multiple graded stakes winner. Tifareeh has disappointed since then, but I don’t think he’s gotten the right trips in either of his last two starts. He never seemed quite comfortable racing behind and between horses at Churchill two back before getting held up in the stretch. Then last time he encountered even more significant stretch traffic, looking like he actually had some run at the time. Tyler Gaffalione once again has to work out a trip from an outside draw, but he's better than he looks and lands in an appropriate spot.

Mike's Response: 

I thought the favorites were overrated in this race and wanted alternatives. Tifareeh is one, but I want to bet #1 Sea Singer. Getting away from the gate cleanly has been an issue for this 3-year-old, who was gelded after racing very greenly in his stateside debut. His return from the layoff wasn't particularly compelling, but he seemed to really improve last time, despite moving back up in class. He might be better than he looks, and he will be a price. 

Mike's Analysis: 

This is supposed to be the spot for #1 Sierra Leone, and I am not going to try to beat him.  He has his flaws, but I still think he is one of the best colts in this crop. There also appears to be enough speed on this field for him to get a reasonable setup, at the very least. He's a short price but I won't try to beat him.

I have no faith in #6 Fierceness and thought he was the short price to stand against. 

#3 Batten Down is an up-and-comer in the division but he has gotten good as a frontrunner and I think he is going to be denied the lead here - or at least be forced to go fast. He has looked much more comfortable on the lead in his last two starts, after refusing to settle in his first two route attempts, and it will interesting to see what happens if he can't make the lead here.

David's Response: 

Mike and I see this race exactly the same way. #1 Sierra Leone is supposed to beat this group. All along Mike has been a bigger fan of this horse than I am, but I don’t think this is the spot to try and beat him. I’ll get that chance in the Travers next month if he doesn’t change my mind on Saturday.

David's Analysis: 

#2 Rabaja will probably make it two in a row if he runs back to his maiden-breaking speed figures, as that came up a very fast race for the level. I’m just not quite sure what to do with him after he was double-digit odds in all of his prior starts as a runner who could now vie for favoritism. He had shown some latent potential prior to breaking through last time and he showed himself to be a long-striding sort that just gallops his opposition into the ground. However, now the waters get deeper and it’s unclear if he’s quick enough to make the front this time with a couple of other speeds in the mix.

A few horses exit the June 20 race at this level won by the progressive Betterluckythangood. I wish I saw more of an excuse for #4 Gem Mint Ten, who had run so well in his season debut, but I know Mike has a more favorable take on him. The horse that I thought you wanted out of that race is #9 Ez Roll. He got a pretty good trip, but was really hitting his best stride through the lane, looking like a horse that is moving forward while still early in his 3-year-old campaign. 

I think the June 30 race that a few others exit was weaker overall, but there’s a horse who finished far back in that spot who I think deserves a long look. #5 American Grant might seem a little ridiculous to endorse based on his recent results, but he has had one awful trip after another. He was literally 3 to 4-wide around the turns on April 28 when actually running a lot better than it looks. He only finished 2 3/4 lengths behind Ez Roll that day despite covering a lot more ground. He got an even wider trip on June 7 when again outrunning his odds despite being given no chance by his rider. Then last time Lane Luzzi finally was able to get him a little closer to the rail, but took him completely out of contention in doing so through the first half of the race. He actually made a huge move down the backstretch to regain contact with the field, running his third quarter in 22.28 seconds (per Gmax) at a point in the race when it’s counterproductive to expend that kind of energy. Now he finally gets a needed rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana, Jr. Is he good enough to beat these? I’m not sure, but he’s going to be a gigantic price and I know he’s better than it appears.

Mike's Response: 

Agree on the Rabaja take. My main thought on the Gem Mint Ten/Ez Roll race was that the pace fell apart late, which helped not only the winner, but also Ez Roll. It also seemed that horses that were able to save ground benefitted in that race, and #4 Gem Mint Ten was tracking the pace from the outside all the way. I can give him another chance, particularly because I thought he ran so well two starts back. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#4 Summer Whirl has run very well in her two starts to begin her career despite coming up short both times. I am reluctant to bet against her in this spot.

David landed on the other horse for me - at a much better price. I couldn't quite convince myself to put #8 Princess Summer on top, but did think about it. He can take it from here...

David's Response: 

I have nothing against #4 Summer Whirl other than the fact that her form is now exposed and she’s going to be a short price. Among those with more experience, I thought #10 North End Lady ran well last time, contesting a fast pace that fell apart. I just wonder how much upside she has at this point.

The horse I want to bet is #8 Princess Summer. I had tabbed this filly as one to follow out of her debut, where it looked like she was just prepping for something going longer. She broke slowly and got a very conservative ride, staying on late under her own power. I don’t care about the dirt race, and now she’s stretching out on turf while also making her first start off the claim for sharp new connections. She’s bred to go long, especially on the dam’s side, and I think she’s going to improve at what could be a square price.