David:

I didn't want to settle for a short price on #4 Otto the Conqueror. He has faced tougher company this year, but I haven't loved the way he's been finishing his races and thought there were other viable options in here. #5 Friar Laurence interests me a bit after he was simply going too far last time out, and probably wasn't serious about that race anyway, since Linda Rice had to run him once at Churchill before shipping out. He's back down to the right level here.

I'll take a shot with #7 Cold as Hell at what should be the best price of the main contenders. I don't love his recent form for Linda Rice, but I'm intrigued by this claim. Michelle Giangiulio has had success claiming horses for this ownership group including Ten Strike Racing. She's 7 for 26 (27%, $3.68 ROI) first off the claim for this outfit over the past 3 years. This gelding has races from the not so distant past that will beat this field, and he's drawn well outside of other speed.

Mike: 

I am not as against Otto the Conqueror as David is, though the concerns are valid, particularly at a short price. While he has looked overmatched by some much better horses so far this year, his speed remains intact, and that might make him tough as he drops down. I also liked Friar Laurence and want to use him. 

For Plays below: (D) = David, (M) = Mike

Mike:

This has the look of a fairly loaded baby race, though with all eight entered being first-time starters, I don't see myself getting involved from a wagering perspective. Fun race to watch.

David: 

Like Mike, I don't see this as a race to get involved too heavily from a wagering perspective. The two firsters I pegged as favorites on the ML look like they might be pretty good. You always have to respect Brad Cox with the firsters he ships to Saratoga (see some stats I cite for Race 7), and #6 Further Ado merits respect. I wish I could have found a workout video for #4 Soldier N Diplomat, but this horse looked very fast in his 10-flat OBS March drill. He's got an excellent dirt sprint pedigree, and Steve Asmussen is due to unveil a real runner at this meet.

David:

It's pretty easy to narrow this race down to the three shortest prices on my ML, though the horse I pegged as the slight favorite #6 Middle Market is the one of those I like the least. #8 Tarpaulin has some things going for him as he drops in class, and he was legitimately compromised by a poor start last time out.

I just prefer the early speed for #4 Brave Buck, who should be able to make the lead here as long as he can still run. His last race is obviously a little concerning, but he was ridden very conservatively, rated early and basically eased as if they never even planned to try. He drops significantly first off the claim for Linda Rice, but she is realistic about where she spots her horses so it doesn't bother me too much.

Mike: 

I also preferred both #4 Brave Buck and #8 Middle Market, who I will not use anywhere. Brave Buck is going to be tough if all is well, though that last effort is pretty concerning. That, paired with a big drop in claiming price right away,  opened the door for me to side with Tarpaulin. I thought this horse ran very well winning on debut, and he has been in two much tougher races since then. This is the right kind of class drop for him.

Mike:

#1 Arthur's Ride will be a substantial favorite in this race, even with a layoff in play, and deservedly so.  At the expected short price, you have to be at least somewhat worried about the time away, though he was sharp when winning first back from a much longer break last year. I had no interest in betting real money against him, though David might have a different take. 

David: 

If #1 Arthur's Ride gets back to anything close to his prior best form, he's going to smash this field. I just have some concerns about this condition based on his recent workouts. He's never been the flashiest work horse, but his recent drills are mildly concerning. He's been outworked by a few seemingly inferior horses on the way into this race, and it's enough to make me question him given the odds-on price.

In situations like this, I try to handicap the race as if Arthur's Ride weren't in it, and the horse I'd like in that situation is #4 Strapped. I know he can be a little pace dependent, but he has shown the ability to sit closer to the front in his two-turn efforts. He ran well closing into slow paces going a mile last time and back on May 4, and he's better over longer distances than that. He ran very well in two starts up here last summer, and now gets a significant rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz.

David:

I spent way too long going back and forth over the runners in this race and feeling like I was getting nowhere. I eventually gave up, but got closest to make a decent case for #8 Nano Man, who ran well up here last summer, and has just been in the wrong spots since then. He's only sprinted on turf in one of his last 5 starts, and that was a good effort last fall. He had a trip at Gulfstream last time, and now returns to John Kimmel's barn, seemingly working pretty well for this comeback.

I also thought long and hard about upgrading #6 Unbroken Chain, who is getting a mild rider upgrade to Shaun Bridgmohan, who at least wins some races on this circuit even if he's hardly my preferred jockey. This horse has improved considerably on turf, and shouldn't mind a little less distance.

Mike: 

I want to bet #3 Hard Par in this race. While he has sprinted infrequently up to this point, I remember liking his effort when he turned back in distance last November. He did lack early speed in that race, but he carried a long run in that spot while trying to recover, even after getting spun out on the turn to avoid a troubled rival, and he stayed on well late to finish third. He had a much better trip when breaking his maiden on another turnback in May, then tried stretching out again last time, where he looked unsettled early and then raced in tight through the lane. I like him sprinting and he should be a fair price. 

Mike:

#4 Tongue Twister was a maiden winner here last summer before going on to improve in her next two starts back downstate, and she got another win in her first start for this trainer at Gulfstream in February. She has had excuses in her two starts since returning to NY, particularly two back when blocked briefly in the stretch before finishing well too late. I thought it was easy to forgive her failure as the favorite last time when stuck wide every step. To me, that effort wasn't as disappointing as it might seem. I couldn't find the alternative to get interested in, though I would probably use #13 Summer Whirl should she draw in as the first AE. 

David: 

I acknowledge that #4 Tongue Twister is going to be tough to beat in this spot for all of the reasons Mike highlighted.

I just don't see much early speed signed on here, and I think there may finally be an opportunity for #9 Lady Jasmine to get her preferred trip on the front end. I know this mare's form looks uncompetitive, but she's been pretty unlucky over the course of her recent turf starts. She's drawn wide posts in both races since returning from a layoff and lost a ton of ground each time. Her trip last time was particularly ridiculous, as she was hung out wide with no cover and no plan every step of the way. It's unclear if she can still run well enough to beat a group like this, but she's getting a rider upgrade to Luis Saez and will surely be a square price.

David:

I acknowledge that the lone runner with experience #4 Vajra could be a handful if she moves forward from her debut effort. She got involved in a suicidal pace duel and didn't even fade that badly to finish fifth. It looks like Rudy Brisset has been training her to rate based on her workout last week.

I'm just a little more inclined than Mike to take my chances with first time starters, and I think there are a few intriguing options to consider in here. Based on workout videos, #7 Tommy Jo and #9 Academia appear to be training pretty well, but they likely won't be interesting prices going out for Pletcher and Brown, respectively. #2 Tennessee Belle looked pretty good working best of a trio on July 13, and John Ortiz has surprisingly strong statistics with 2-year-old first time starters. She's a definite use for me.

I put #8 Immortalize on top, even though I couldn't find video of any of her workouts. I find it pretty interesting that Irad Ortiz lands here rather than on any of the aforementioned runners, since he doesn't ride for Cox that much. She has a huge turf pedigree on the dam's side, but Gun Runner is an excellent dirt debut sire. Yet what's most convincing is Brad Cox's history with these types. Cox is 6 for 21 ($3.81 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in Spa dirt sprints over the last 3 years. Plus 12 of those 21 have finished in the exacta, a remarkable performance considering how tough these races come up.

Mike: 

I prefer horses with experience in these races, and, along with having a race, Vajra has some other things going for her in this spot. As David noted, she flashed good speed in that debut before getting dueled into defeat. Her trainer also has excellent numbers with horses like this, suggesting that there could be improvement coming on Saturday - Brisset, 2yo, second career start, MSW, dirt: 13 for his last 29, 45%, $3.75 ROI.

Mike:

I didn't get to #3 Vekinda on my first pass through this race. After failing to talk myself into horses like #4 Blamicker and #6 Roofer, I went back to him and think he is worth betting if he stays at 4/1 or better. Vekinda faced stakes-quality NY-breds Sand Devil and Prince Valiant when moved to dirt early on, then had a bit of trip when second at a short price in February. He got the maiden win in his next start, and he has run fine in his first two starts at this level, including that last one when finishing well into a front-running winner from last. He is back from a freshening for this in a race that projects to set up well for him. 

David: 

I had also liked Vekinda a bit for the reasons Mike mentioned, but he is out. #10 On the Hill is another who could benefit from some pace in here, but he has to stay more engaged than last time when he lost position badly on the turn before swinging ridiculously wide into the lane. I'd like him more if there was a rider switch. I'm a little more optimistic on #6 Roofer than Mike is, since his last race was legitimately fast and he may be a horse who has just finally turned the corner after showing some potential early on. I could even throw in #5 Leo's Reward on the turnback.

I put #9 Kenny Be on top, and taking the ML favorite in a wide open race isn't typically my preferred option. I just can't see anyone being that short a price in this spot, and I do think this horse has subtly run better than it looks a few times in his recent starts. He got an uncomfortable trip stuck on the rail behind the talented Naive Melody three back. Then last time he was rated from the start, which isn't how he runs his best races. From there, he pulled, and then had to alter course behind runners in upper stretch. He's getting a huge rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz, and is drawn well outside of all the other speed.

David:

The three fillies exiting the Wild Applause all merit serious consideration. Having talked about these horses with Mike a few times, I know I'm a bigger fan of #5 Classic Q than he is, and I do think she ran pretty well in victory last time even if she did have the track profile in her favor. She looks like the main speed once again, and we'll see if an extra sixteenth of a mile is her undoing. I view her as the horse to beat, followed closely by #4 Lavender Disaster. I know Mike sees more separation between these two. I just felt that all of the Wild Applause fillies were pretty exposed, especially in light of the speed figure that race got.

I'm hoping there's still further upside with #3 Daisy Flyer at a much better price. She never ran a fast speed figure as a 2-year-old, but I liked her maiden win at Kentucky Downs before it seemed like they had little interest asking for much in the Miss Grillo. She looked like a completely different horse when she returned at Gulfstream this winter, just missing at 87-1 in the Herecomesthebride. She did save ground before launching her rally, but the same can be said of Classic Q, who she just nosed out at the wire that day. She returns from another layoff here, and I respect the aggressive placement for a filly still eligible for a first-level allowance. Another step forward with routine improvement through maturity makes her a serious threat.

Mike: 

I will acknowledge that I might simply be wrong about Classic Q, but I don't think she is that good and will try to beat her again. To me, Lavender Disaster is the most talented filly in this field, and I think she can easily turn the tables on Saturday if she can pull a different trip.  I don't know that the price on David's ML makes her all that interesting, but I will put most of my play straight through her. 

I wanted to get #1 Reining Flowers in there, and do think she probably deserves one more start as a 3-year-old to see how much - if any - she has improved, though I did want to see more from her in the Penn Oaks last time. At a big price, I will use her one more time.

Mike:

This is just a prep for leading 3-year-old colt #5 Sovereignty, but I won't be putting any money in against him. #1 Baeza is a nice colt, and he still has some room to improve, but getting 2 or 3-1 on him in this race is not nearly enough for me to bet real money on him. I'd be surprised if anyone else was close at the end.

David: 

I'm not going to make some elaborate case against Sovereignty. I just get the sense that we might see an improved version of #1 Baeza here based on his recent workouts. Baeza has never been a bad work horse, and has shown some flashes of brilliance in the mornings, such as when he worked that 1:10 and change 6F ahead of the Santa Anita Derby. However, he has never maintained the focus and intensity that has been on display though his recent series of drills. That July 4 work was superb, as he recorded an extremely fast time while barely being asked. And his July 11 drill was even more impressive, as he flew home through the stretch under minimal urging. I clocked his final quarter in 23.2 seconds. I've never seen Baeza train like this, and I think he's sitting on a career-best effort. Is it enough to turn the tables on Sovereignty? Perhaps not, but I'd rather take a price around 3-1 on Baeza finding out.

David:

I don't have a strong argument against #9 Hello Beauty, who has surely been facing tougher rivals in open company races out of town. However, it seems like the Saratoga bettors can't wager enough on these Kentucky shippers as of late, so I won't be surprised when this one gets pounded at the windows. She's the most likely winner, but I thought this was actually a pretty strong group of NY-breds for the level.

I've been waiting to bet back #4 Tahila in a turf route since she got a pretty terrible trip in her lone route attempt last November. She got bumped between horses at the start, putting her out of position early. She then got keen after that, refusing to settle. She ultimately moved up into contention in upper stretch but then got stymied in traffic at the eighth pole. Best of all, it seems as if the chart callers completely missed all of that trouble. She showed in her return from the layoff last time that she still isn't the easiest horse to ride, again getting keen in the early stages. I'm hoping she can break here to get better forward position. I know she has the ability to win at this level, and I think she's more of a router than a sprinter.

Mike: 

David makes an interesting point about Tahila, whose trip in the lone start routing was eventful, to say the least. I don't like any of her other races, but maybe she is just a different horse going long. 

I had nothing clever to say here and picked the favorite, so I am happy to let David's analysis of this race stand. 

Mike:

This might be the right step back in class for horses like #7 Fateful Lightning and #10 Hedge the Risk, but I'm not thrilled with either of them and can easily take a shot against. I did briefly wonder if the addition of blinkers is exactly what #9 Battle Drum needs, as he has hung badly a couple of times recently in races he probably should have won, and I do like him stretching back out, but it's not like he is going to be a great price. 

I'll try to get #6 Majestic Michael to improve in his turf debut at what should be a fair price. Being a 5-year-old with only four career starts behind him suggests that he has had issues, but he ran well while attending a fast pace in his debut back in early 2023, then caught a sloppy track and had no chance with a blowout winner (106 Beyer) in his only other start before missing almost a full year. He was first back from another extended layoff last time when caught chasing another fast pace before fading. He is back without a break and drops in class as a new gelding, and he has some turf in his pedigree, as well.

David: 

I suppose #7 Fateful Lightning will be tough to beat based on his solid efforts against maiden special weight foes. He's the kind of horse I actually might have liked a bit if he were running back at that level, since he didn't have a very good trip last time. However, now he's extremely obvious dropping down, which begs the question about how much upside he really has.

If I saw less speed in this race, I would have liked to bet #12 Ski Bum, and I may still throw a few bucks at him. He did very well to hold on for third last time after chasing a quick pace that took its toll on others.

Yet I do see plenty of pace in here, and that should set things up for #10 Hedge the Risk. I thought he handled turf pretty well when he tried it last time, and might have done better if he hadn't gotten steadied out of position into the clubhouse turn. That was his first start off a very long layoff, and he should fare well here with any further improvement.