Mike's Analysis: 

There are plenty of interesting first time starters in this field, though I am always happy to side with experience in races like this. 

I liked #5 Helicity's breeze at the OBS March sale before selling for $120k. He made his debut going short at Gulfstream, where he spent some time racing behind horses before getting third behind a pair of experienced rivals. He has since worked on the turf at Saratoga, where he engaged nicely with older filly Storm Miami, who was stakes-placed in Ireland and earned an 83 Beyer finishing third in an allowance race over a mile at Saratoga last month. 

I thought he was interesting stretching out with that debut experience behind him. 

David's Response: 

I agree with Mike that #5 Helicity offers some appeal as one of the experienced options in here, but I found this to be a race that wasn’t short on runners to consider. #3 Clever Again is another horse with a start under his belt that appears to fit these conditions. Though he debuted going much shorter on dirt, he’s out of a full-sister to multiple Group 1 winning Euro turf router Love. I think his Oklahoma turf breezes have been pretty encouraging and I won’t be surprised when he’s a much better turf horse. Though, he’s also going to take more money than Mike’s idea.

Among the firsters, I like #7 Hands of Time for Christophe Clement, who always merits consideration in these situations. He appears to be training well on grass, and I especially liked his last turf work where he always looked to have his mate measured. The turf pedigree isn’t immediately obvious, but second dam Midnight Watch was a nice turf runner.

David's Analysis: 

I have very little interest in this race from a wagering standpoint. The Jacobson entry is far from trustworthy but either half is obviously dangerous dropping down to this level. I would prefer #1A Self Isolation of the two, since she didn’t even run that badly last time when chasing a fast pace at Pimlico. And the only alternative of interest is #5 It Takes Heart, who was compromised by a poor start two back and then wide chasing a fast pace last time. She’s another getting significant class relief. It’s hard to get excited about either one as bets in a race where the form is so unreliable.

Mike's Response: 

David and I viewed this race similarly. I would like to get the chance to see what price #1A Self Isolation winds up at if going it alone for Jacobson, but I didn't have much to say about this race.

Mike's Analysis: 

I wasn't initially taken with #1 King Puck's debut, where he showed speed and was no match for a horse that had previously run modest figures sprinting on turf. That race did wind up coming back fast for the level, at least as far as the winner is concerned, but with no significant runbacks to date to give some additional perspective, I could easily take a negative position on King Puck at a short price; even in this field, which looks a bit weak for the level.

One horse I am interested in using is #4 He Has It All, who will be making his turf debut here with some pedigree to back him up. I know David is interested in this horse as well.

I ultimately decided to give #7 Mazzei one more chance at a price. I liked the debut from this homebred gelding when catching a couple of spots of traffic before finishing up okay too late. He was bad last time, though he was chasing a fast pace in a race that fell apart late. I don't love him, but if I bet this race it is going to be with a horse like Mazzei.

David's Response: 

Like Mike, I thought #1 King Puck ran fine on debut but I also wanted to see him put up more of a fight in the lane when Launch Control took over in upper stretch, especially considering that Clement’s debut runners are often so well prepared.

I had tabbed #4 He Has It All as a turf horse all the way back in his debut race, since he has the action of a runner who should take to grass. I don’t love the Laobans on the turf generally, and they can sometimes fool the eye, since that Uncle Mo influence clearly comes through. Yet the dam was a pure turf sprinter, and I think this gelding may finally be getting on the right surface. If he transfers his form to grass, he’s a better horse than King Puck, and he’s going to be a distant second choice.

David's Analysis: 

I probably spent longer mulling over picks in this race than any other on the card. It’s tough to trust the favorites since most of them only have one representative speed figure that makes them formidable. That’s the case for #1 Silver Satin, whose Beyer for that maiden win two back looks a little high in retrospect. He’s fine, and figures to sit a good trip, but he’s just a little too obvious. #2 Yo Banana Boy and #3 Boss Tweed have both run fast races, but they did so controlling up front and now they have to deal with each other’s speed.

The most trustworthy runner might be #4 On the Hill, who looked like a horse who needed the race off the layoff two back and took a nice step forward last time, showing improved early speed before battling on gamely to the wire.

Mike's Response: 

We went to different Linda Rice horses. I thought the fact that #7 Freedsdale won on debut was a good sign, and it's not like he got bet that day. To me, his two subsequent efforts are easy to forgive. The debut effort prompted Rice to run him back ten days later in the Times Square (also a good sign), where he was in against the two of the top 3-year-old NY-bred sprinters in Antonio of Venice and Doc Sullivan. I get why he was given a shot on turf last time, but he was never going to win that race and I saw no reason to hold it against him. Linda also has excellent numbers switching from turf to dirt with sprinters. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#3 Safalow's Mission looks like a vulnerable favorite in this race. The question is: where do you go for an alternative?

I'm not sure I ever got to an acceptable answer for wagering purposes.

I tried #8 Bobby the Tank a couple of times over the winter in races tougher than this one and thought he was one to use, particularly because he also has speed - not that I trust him all that much.

At least #6 Vin Santo is dropping in class again, and he can be forgiven for the two uncompetitive lines since breaking his maiden in early May. 

I did think #9 Assertive Attitude was a bit interesting exiting a couple of efforts that might be better than they look, and he is almost certainly going to be a fair price in a race where I thought that was the way to go. But the reality is that I just don't really have a lot of confidence in anyone.

David's Response: 

Mike and I cycled through all of the same alternatives to #3 Safalow’s Mission, who I agree isn’t the most trustworthy favorite.

I ultimately settled on uncoupled stablemate #8 Bobby the Tank, since he has been facing better competition, and he does project to be the controlling speed this time. Linda Rice has probably been a bit too aggressive with him and he’s just in a realistic spot now. That said, there are other races on this card that I find far more compelling from a wagering standpoint.

David's Analysis: 

I don’t have a major knock against #6 Parola Sicura, who just looks very logical against field that features few other proven turf sprinters. She’s faced tougher company in her last few starts, including when running deceptively well at Keeneland after chasing a hot pace that collapsed. And she showed real ability last time in the Stormy Blues when overcoming some stretch traffic to stay on for second behind the superior Toupie. The only drawback is that she’s been ignored by bettors in her recent starts and now she looks like the obvious favorite.

I’m not quite convinced with the horses trying turf for the first time, especially since they seem likely to take money. #1 Reconcile has pedigree, but Linda Rice is 1 for 32 ($0.49 ROI) with non-maidens trying turf for the first time over 5 years. #5 Girls Weekend was impressive in her return from the layoff in an off the turf race, but she’s going to get bet based on a flashy dirt speed figure.

I’m more interested in some locally based options. #3 Masterof the Tunes doesn’t win that often and I think 5 1/2 furlongs might be a little short for her. Yet she has some versatility and surely fits from a quality standpoint.

I put #4 Golden Rocket on top as a bit of a guess. She’s never sprinted on turf before but she seems like one who should be able to handle it. She’s smaller with a quick cadence to her stride and nice turn of foot, all characteristics of turf sprinters. She has to bounce back to form for new trainer Charlie Baker, but she’s also going to be a bigger price with those poor recent results showing. There’s supposed to be some pace in this race, and she figures to be charging late over a course that has been kind to closers in turf sprints.

Mike's Response: 

I also respect #6 Parola Sicura as the one to beat here, not that I would be afraid to bet against her should she be a short price this time.

If I do play against her, it is going to be with a new face. Along those lines, I want #1 Reconcile - poor trainer stat for Rice notwithstanding. 

The one thing that stood out to me when Reconcile won on debut last December was how ready she looked for that first start. Rice is not typically one to have her newcomers totally clued in, so the fact that Reconcile acted so professionally right from the start of that race was notable. She hasn't quite been up to stakes competition since then, though she has run fine in those races. There is turf on both sides of this pedigree and she gets Lasix for the first attempt in her available condition, though I will wait and see what kind of price she is before committing. 

Mike's Analysis: 

There is much guesswork to be done in this six-furlong MSW for 2-year-olds featuring nine first time starters in the field of ten. 

I wound up not putting #7 Be Real on top, but I found a lot to like about that colt. David has him as the top pick so he can make the case there.

#2 Authentic Gallop was the other one for me. He is out of a dam who has dropped seven winners so far and they are all (somewhat amazingly) debut winners. Four of them are also stakes winners, including Ami's Flatter, a Grade 3-winning dirt sprinter with a 105 Beyer top. These races are also often about the trainer, and Tom Amoss does very good work with his juvenile first time starters. 

I didn't discount the experience of #5 Perfect Force, especially over this six-furlong distance, and will use him.

David's Response: 

After the scratch of Be Real, I move #4 Incentive Pay to my top pick. I didn’t like that he broke a step slowly from the gate on July 14, but he did appear to be slightly best in company thereafter. 

I think Mike’s horse #2 Authentic Gallop is interesting as well but watching his workouts, he strikes me as one that doesn’t have much speed and will be finishing well late.

David's Analysis: 

My main interest in this race is playing against #2 Federal Judge, who is likely to go favored making his first start for the Brad Cox barn. He obviously had ability when he kicked off his career for Rudy Brisset last year, and he didn’t even run that badly in the Woody Stephens. However, he really wasn’t finishing off the 7 furlongs that day, and I think he could be vulnerable trying this distance again off such a long layoff. I also find it mildly concerning that they gelded him prior to this return.

If I’m right about Federal Judge, that makes his main speed rival #3 Gun It especially dangerous. This horse routinely breaks sharply from the gate and should be in position to apply pressure right from the outset. He obviously put in a disappointing effort last time in the True North, but I wonder if he had an unusual excuse. Watching the replay, his girth strap appeared to come undone around the far turn and start dangling between his legs, which was right at the point in the race in which he seemed to shorten stride and fade. This isn’t the kind of horse who usually gives up without a fight, so I’m inclined to give him a pass for it. He has always loved this 7-furlong distance, and there isn’t much other speed signed on.

I also have some interest in Linda Rice’s other horse #4 Costa Terra. He exits a strange race in which multiple horses didn’t produce their best efforts. I did like that he broke well and showed good tactical speed before fading over that demanding distance. That should have served as a good tightener and I don’t mind him cutting back. I also think #5 Deer District is a little interesting, but I’ll let Mike lay out the case for him.

Mike's Response: 

I agree with David regarding Federal Judge and am playing this race to beat him at a short price.

I just think #5 Deer District is a better dirt horse and think getting back to this surface after holding his own vs a quality field going a mile on grass last time might have him set up for a top effort. 

I wanted to like #7 Arro Smash more than I ultimately did after going through his races, but he still has upside and I do respect this trainer. 

Gun It is part of my play, as well.

David and Mike's Late Pick-5

David and Mike combine their opinions to come up with a late Pick-5 using the ABC method. (Total wagers: $158)

Race: A / B / C
R8:  3,5 / -- / 4,7
R9:   2,6,8 / 1 / 3,5,9
R10:  1,2 / 3,6 / --
R11:  3 / -- / 1,5
R12:  3,5 / 1 / 8

Mike's Analysis: 

I thought this was a competitive field of older turf runners. #2 Major Dude looked like the horse to beat and I am not necessarily against him. There are others to consider, however. 

I get where David is going with #8 Andthewinneris and believe that he is as talented as anyone in this field. The long layoff combined with this barn change were negatives to me (the barn change strictly for the implications it can have on the tote board.)

I almost put #1 Pioneering Spirit on top on the idea that he will get overlooked here despite clearly being good enough to win. I can't say that I have loved his form so far this year, though I am not holding the Belmont Gold Cup against him, and I didn't hate his return in the Danger's Hour. 

I went with #6 Cash Equity, who received a terrible ride last time at Churchill and came away a very unlucky loser. I suppose his running style can be viewed as the main culprit, though he has managed to stay closer to the pace while still running his race in the past, particularly when sent longer distances. He looks like a nice fit here and is a fair price on David's line.

David's Response: 

I really struggled with this race and came to many of the same conclusions as Mike, just sorting our picks in a different order.

I do believe #8 Andthewinneris might be one of the most talented runners in this field. He was soundly beaten by Major Dude when they met in the American Turf last year, but their trips couldn’t have been more different. Major Dude got a great ground-saving journey whereas Andthewinneris was wide throughout. He also had trouble two back in the Transylvania, so his form was dirtied up prior to heading to the sidelines. I agree that he’d be more interesting if not switching to Chad Brown’s barn (does Chad really need to train every talented turf horse?). However, I still don’t think he’ll be favored and I like the way he’s training for the return. I also won’t be surprised to see him show a little more early speed for the new stable with Rosario taking over.

I’m certainly not against #2 Major Dude and view him as the horse to beat, just as the likely favorite. We had similar thoughts about #6 Cash Equity and #1 Pioneering Spirit. The former just comes from so far back these days, and my gut tells me the latter just isn’t quite the same horse this season.

David's Analysis: 

I acknowledge that #2 Oversubscribed is the most likely winner of this Lake George, but she got such a perfect setup to win last time and now her form is totally exposed. She couldn’t help but win that Wild Applause impressively after her stablemate went on a mission to ensure the defeat of Macanga, her main rival. I would use her in multi-horse wagers, but I don’t view her as offering much win value.

#3 Manama Gold is perhaps the most fascinating runner in this field, since she has a real turf pedigree, being a full-sister to turf sprint star Ova Charged out of a dam who was a very nice turf horse. It’s a little strange that she was never tried on turf in Dubai, but she still strikes me as one who should take to the surface. She also has dangerous early speed in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace.

The one price I want to consider is #1 Gavea, who makes her second start off the layoff for Al Stall. I’m not totally convinced about her overall quality, but I did think she ran well within the context of the Regret last time, and prefer her going a little shorter.

Mike's Response: 

I agree that #2 Oversubscribed had to win last time with that pace developing in front of her. I actually like her more based on her other two starts, anyway. 

I could give #6 Sweet Rebecca a chance to bounce back at the right price after bobbling and appearing to lose her nerve at a crucial point in the Wonder Again. She doesn't appear to be totally put together yet, but the talent is there and she is tactical. 

I get the things to like about Manama Gold but hate taking shortish prices on horses like her. 

Mike's Analysis: 

Only four entered the CCA Oaks to try #3 Thorpedo Anna, though a new face on the rail makes things at least a little interesting. 

#1 Candied earned a 99 Beyer defeating a field of older fillies and mares last time at Monmouth. That Beyer puts her on par with the favorite, though other figures don't necessarily agree.

I like Candied and thought she was unlucky in both the BC Juvenile Fillies and the Ashland, but her tendency to break a bit slowly, and to also have trouble with her lead change in the stretch, are both things that worked against her in those losses, and could wind up working against her again as she takes on the clear-cut leader of this division. 

At the end of the day, Thorpedo Anna has simply been too impressive, and I did not see this as being the spot to take a shot against her. 

David's Response: 

I’m done trying to beat #3 Thorpedo Anna in these types of spots. She’s just too good for these right now, and her tactical speed makes it tough to see trip or tactics being her undoing.

Sorry, I don’t buy the 99 Beyer for #1 Candied. It just doesn’t make sense for others in that field to have all run near their career bests in defeat. She has improved this year, but I think she’s going to be overrated in this spot and would look to beat her out of the exacta.

The interesting horse for me is #5 Intricate. She obviously didn’t progress from her strong 2-year-old campaign at the start of this year. Yet I thought her return in the Monomoy Girl is better than the fig indicates. She was closing into a slow pace, really trying hard across the wire, showing determination that was lacking her prior races at Fair Grounds. She was opportunistic when she beat Thorpedo Anna last year, but now she’s underrated and I think she can outrun her odds to potentially complete the exacta here.

David's Analysis: 

I really don’t have a strong feel for this finale. My inclination is to take some shots against #1 Factor Analysis, who has gotten perfect trips in his last couple of starts going these marathon distances.

Todd Pletcher probably sends out the two most interesting alternatives. I know Mike likes #5 El Rezeen more, so I’ll let him cover that one, though I agree he’s a major player.

I put #3 Artempus on top, hoping he’d be the better price of the two. There is no speed signed on here and this gelding obviously has the ability to lead this group early. He’s never gone this far and doesn’t have the physical stature of a marathon type. Yet watching him run, he has very good length to his stride, an indicator of distance ability, and his dam did place going as far as 1 1/2 miles on turf. I didn’t like the trip he got two back at Keeneland and won’t hold a Churchill turf race against just about any horse these days.

Mike's Response: 

Maybe #1 Factor Analysis has finally found the right field but I think you have to make him beat you at this point. I prefer #5 El Rezeen, mostly based on the race two back where he had to deal with some traffic behind the talented White Palomino. I am a bit concerned about distance for him after that last one but will give him one more chance and hope that he can save a little ground this time. 

I also thought #8 The Jackal was a player off the bench for Shug. He looks like a true stayer and won't have to improve much (if at all) in order to contend here.