Mike's Analysis: 

I suppose this isn't a bad spot for a first time starter, but I found little to hold on to regarding #4 Printer's Alley at a short price. 

#3 Friday Surprise earned a figure that makes him tough when gaining on an odds-on winner in his first start, though it's usually advisable to take a wait-and-see approach with figures for 4.5-furlong races. His second start was fine when second again to another front-running winner. To me, he is the one to beat.

If I bet this race, I'll be taking a shot with #8 America's Honor. He had an excuse when debuting on dirt, then went long on turf last time, likely as a lean toward distance rather than surface considering his pedigree. Sacco has good numbers with horses like this, and he is likely to be a price.

David's Response: 

I did think #4 Printer’s Alley would be pretty formidable here. Those are certainly not “normal” workouts for this auction-restricted level, and the most recent gate drill was in company with Gate to Wire, who won his debut in a turf sprint on Friday. Thousand Words has gotten off to a pretty strong start as a stallion, and I won’t be surprised when this one is a runner.

I don’t disagree that #3 Friday Surprise is a contender, but I thought his last race was a better indicator of his ability, and I didn’t like the way this apprentice struggled to prevent him from lugging in.

I wanted to stick with firsters here, and the one I want to bet is #7 Executive Order. Phil Serpe doesn’t send out too many live first time starters, but he can win with them from time to time. This gelding has win-early pedigree, by Unified out of a Cuvee dam who won her debut and 8 of her first 10 starts. Yet what really attracts me to this guy is the video of that July 17 workout, which was from the gate though not noted as such in the PPs. He didn’t break that sharply, but accomplished the time very easily, never being asked for his best. I suspect there’s some ability here.

(D) = David's wagers; (M) = Mike's wagers

David's Analysis: 

This race becomes less interesting to after both of my top two picks were scratched. I suppose #6 Statesman makes some sense as the runner with experience, but I wish I was more convinced about him getting to turf.

Among the first time starters, #8 Early Adopter looks dangerous for Chad Brown. He was a modest $215k purchase overseas, and I wouldn’t read too much into the fact that he’s been working at Monmouth. The progeny of Lope de Vega generally seem to be precocious, and Chad has certainly had success with them for this owner.

Mike's Response: 

I took #6 Statesman out of the 8/10 race for these horses that was rained off the grass. I thought he showed potential in that race while making a nice run around the turn after getting shuffled back, and then going a bit greenly in the lane. I get that he has the pedigree to handle the main track, but he also has plenty of turf in his female family.

Mike's Analysis: 

My initial thought when looking at this race was to like #9 Irish Tenor, as he was after a quick pace in his lone turf start to date. I still didn't like that effort much, and ultimately couldn't get there. 

I also didn't really like Kimmel's other horse, #7 Nano Man, though he did run well in that last one when up in class over this course and distance. 

#5 Kreesa is interesting to try to get in there underneath as a closer who might be a bit better than he looks, but I don't want him on top.

My two horses in this race are #3 Twisted Filigree and #6 Your Man Alex. They finished close together when squaring off in a similar spot on 7/14, though it is worth noting that Twisted Filigree was making his first start back from an extended layoff. 

David's Response: 

I didn’t want to overcomplicate this race. I narrowed it down to those two who hit the wire together on July 14. I wonder if #6 Your Man Alex will get overbet based on the improbable recent success that Shaun Bridgmohan has had riding for Melanie Giddings. I think #3 Twisted Filigree ran the better race when they met, and as Mike noted, he may be more likely of the two to move forward, especially now having two starts under his belt.

David's Analysis: 

Likely favorites #7 Confabulation and #8 Shakin the Belle have obvious merits in this $20k claimer. The former is taking a big drop in class from the $75k level. I didn’t think he did much running on debut, that was a significantly tougher field. Shakin the Belle is consistent and proven at this level, but he was supposed to get the job done when going off at short prices in his last couple of starts.

As I went through this race runner by runner looking for an interesting alternative, I initially passed over a horse based purely on his career record. However, when taking a second look at #5 Theregoesmymiracle, there are some things to like. I get that betting an 0-for-32 maiden might be more than most can stomach, but this horse does appear to be in the best form of his career right now. He’s got a bunch of turf speed figures that make him competitive, but he’s not the type that will get bet based on those numbers. You have to go all the way back to June 2022 to find his last dirt race, but it was a surprisingly competitive effort. Going 1 1/16 miles against tougher horses like I Am the Law, he actually hung in there until mid-stretch before fading at the very end. He’s in better form now than he was at that time, and I think he deserves another chance on dirt over a distance that seems more suitable to him.

Mike's Response: 

I have no argument with going for a price in this race. I am unlikely to be involved and went with #9 Forced Errors, who probably faced better in his debut, and actually ran pretty well that day while showing speed. I don't care about the turf race last time, and he drew a nice post for his return to dirt while cutting in half. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#5 Federal Judge and #6 Accretive are the two that will - and should - draw the most attention in this race. I prefer the former, as he was making his first start back from a long layoff going seven furlongs when tiring in that last one. Besides, I have had enough of Accretive. 

Being first off the claim for Flying P is worth noting, though there is more than that to recommend #8 Pro Oxidant as an alternative. He has some back races that compare favorably with the two favorites and rates the benefit of the doubt for that last one. He ran well in that race anyway but dropping back to 5.5 furlongs is harder than it looks, particularly when trying to close from last.

David's Response: 

The only thing I’ll add to Mike’s analysis of #8 Pro Oxidant is that drawing outside could really benefit him. He’s been plagued by inside post positions in recent starts, and those can be tough for a dirt sprinter wanting to pull a mid-pack trip. I think he can get better forward position from this draw because he really isn’t as slow as he might look on paper. The Flying P angle doesn’t hurt either.

That said, I do think #6 Accretive will be a handful in here on the slight drop. I just don’t need to take him at a short price.

David's Analysis: 

Second time starter #6 Brindi is obviously the horse to beat for Christophe Clement, but I’m never eager to take horses that were cranked up to win their debuts second time out, but Clement does have decent stats with these types specifically in turf sprints. I thought she ran pretty well, but I think the race could be a little overrated from a speed figure perspective.

Among the firsters, the one who figures to be most dangerous is #5 Laurice. This daughter of Bolt d’Oro looked pretty quick working a furlong in 9 4/5 at the OBS April sale. She’s also been working extremely well for the debut, actually outworking older stakes winner Amidst Waves in that Aug. 23 drill. George Weaver has been a little snakebitten at this meet, but he can have a firster ready to fire in this situation.

My top pick is #3 Moonlight Promises, who finally gets a chance on turf after being entered for this surface in her first two starts. She did show improvement second time out, flashing good early speed before getting a little tired in the mud. The dam herself won the Edgewood on turf, though she hasn’t been much of a grass producer. Some may view Promises Fulfilled as a negative turf influence, but I think this new sire could have some success with turf sprinters. His sire Shackleford was a very underrated turf sprint sire and Promises Fulfilled himself had some turf/synthetic pedigree on the dam’s side. This filly strikes me as a turf type, and I think she’s going to step forward for a barn that has done very well with runners like this at the meet.

Mike's Response: 

I thought long and hard about the alternatives to #6 Brindi and wound up taking her on top. Ultimately, there were too many firsters that I thought were interesting and didn't want to guess with one of them. I will probably play different tickets and split the focus between experience and newcomers.

Mike's Analysis: 

#4 Zadorsky has come back an improved horse this year and ran well in that last one when briefly blocked and forced to go back inside in the stretch. She is not the kind of horse I am looking to bet at a short price but is easy to like in here.

I feel similarly about #5 Cara's Time. She is also a much-improved horse this year, and she just acquitted herself well vs a tougher N1X field than this one. Her speed plays in this race and I am expecting her to show up.

The interesting horse at a better price is #3 Best Impression and I know David likes her so he can take it from here.

David's Response: 

Mike and I have similar thoughts on the two potential favorites. I just thought #3 Best Impression was an interesting new face at this level. She looks pretty slow based on those speed figures from last winter, but she was a younger horse back then and has a right to have gotten faster through routine maturity. Her debut in particular is also a better race than it appears on paper. She was off slowly that day and made an eye-catching middle move to challenge the heavily-favored winner, who is a pretty nice horse. I wish she had won a bit more convincingly last time, but she might have come out of that race with an issue, hence the layoff. Phil Serpe has been a little quiet this summer, but he tends to point his live runners to this meet.

David's Analysis: 

There are a couple of runners with experience who showed talent on debut in this interesting 7-furlong maiden special weight. #3 Tap Into This looks like a deserving favorite off his encouraging runner-up effort at Churchill. This grey son of Tapit broke awkwardly and lost position soon after the break before making a sustained rally into second. He’s bred to be a good one as a half-brother to the precocious Extra Anejo, and we have seen Steve Asmussen do well in these types of races over the years.

Perhaps #4 Dapper Moon was flattered when Filoso, who closed in tandem with him on debut, came back to win going a mile here on Thursday. I still think this horse was taking advantage of a pace that was falling apart, but perhaps he won’t be that short a price once again.

Among the firsters, #7 Capricious Outcome looks dangerous. These progeny of Practical Joke always seem to run well on debut, and I think it’s meaningful that this horse is entered for dirt despite a strong turf pedigree on the dam’s side. He looked pretty quick in the lone glimpse I got of him working at Churchill, and his last drill suggests readiness.

My top pick is another firster, #2 Guns Loaded. Jose D’Angelo isn’t necessarily known for success with debut runners, but he has sent out some debut winners at prices over the past few seasons. They really paid up for this son of Gun Runner, going to $800k as a yearling. The dam was a turf horse and there is plenty of grass on the bottom side of the pedigree, but that doesn’t seem to matter much for many of the Gun Runner progeny we’ve seen, most of which are dirt horses. I really liked this colt’s gate work on Aug. 17 when he achieved that fast time quite easily. He also worked well in company on Aug. 24, holding a slight edge over stakes-placed Kirin. He looks ready to fire on debut.

Mike's Response: 

This is another race with very interesting first time starters, but winning at seven furlongs on debut as a juvenile is not an easy thing to do. Not only does #3 Tap Into This have the experience that offers a big advantage in these races, but he also ran very well in that lone appearance. And he did so for a trainer who is historically dangerous with 2-year-old maidens after a start. I didn't want to go crazy trying to beat him.

Mike's Analysis: 

The horse I am against in this race is #9 Samburu, who can clearly win but has squandered a couple of pretty good trips recently.

I have been a #3 Ramblin' Wreck fan, and remain one, and thought he was a must use in this race. Trips are important to Ramblin' Wreck, so getting a fair price is imperative.

I considered giving #6 Barrage a chance to rebound and want to use him. David has him on top so I'm sure he has more to say about this horse.

I went right back to #5 Unleash the Power, who arrived in good form from Kentucky and looked good overwhelming a weaker field last time. He can handle this step back up in class and is handy enough to get a good trip regardless of pace

David's Response: 

Our opinions are pretty similar in this spot. I do view #3 Ramblin’ Wreck as the horse to beat. While he didn’t have any obvious trouble last time, I didn’t think he got the best ride. Velazquez just never had him in position to build momentum and he was hitting his best stride when the race was over. He also had a tough trip two back after getting off slowly. He’s a nice horse, but I agree that his lack of speed is a concern.

I put #6 Barrage on top, and I like his chances here quite a bit. I didn’t think he ran that well in either start earlier in the year, but he was going out for a different trainer at that time, and he really improved when making this same switch to Ray Handal last summer. He’s had some time to develop in Handal’s barn after getting rained off the turf earlier in the meet, and he really seems to be thriving now. That Aug. 23 workout was pretty impressive, as he pulled away from recent allowance winner Union Dolly without being asked. He possesses a versatile running style and fits at this level.

David and Mike's Late Pick-5

The two handicappers combine their opinions to come up with a Pick-5 wager using the ABC method. (Total wagers: $152)

Race:  A / B / C
R9:  5,6 / 3 / --
R10:  7 / -- / 3,9
R11:  1,9,11 / 7,8 / --
R12:  1 / 4 / 7,9
R13:  2,5 / -- / 1,4,7,9,11,12

David's Analysis: 

I don’t have that much to say about this race from a wagering perspective, since I picked likely favorite #7 Two Sharp. I have little interest in betting this horse at a short price, but I also couldn’t come up with an alternative against her. She was likely aided by a minor rail bias last time, but she still absolutely crushed that field, including a Chad Brown first time starter that may have some ability. She has trained like a beast out of that race, and she just isn’t catching a particularly tough field for this kind of race.

Her two main rivals don’t really appeal to me. #3 Tricky Temper has been in excellent form, but it’s fair to wonder if she can produce another top effort making her fourth start in just 44 days. #9 Brightwork is the other place to go, and I suppose there’s a way to look at her and be optimistic that she’s just getting back to her preferred distance. I just still have some questions about how good she ever really was and don’t need to take her off this kind of layoff.

I know Mike has some interest in a huge longshot that I don’t think is totally crazy. I viewed her as more of an underneath type, but I’ll let him make the pitch for #6 Pacific Rose.

Mike's Response: 

#7 Two Sharp doesn't exactly fit the profile of a Prioress winner, though the race has changed quite a bit - for the worse - recently, and is particularly weak this year. She galloped in that maiden win last time and is going to win if just running that race back.

Mike's Analysis: 

The Grade 1 Spinaway might be a glorified N1X outside off two-time stakes winner #8 The Queens M G, but it is still a highly compelling race from a wagering standpoint.

The three horses I am most interested in are #7 Pondering, #9 Strong State, and #11 Quietside.  Strong State likely gets overlooked a bit (she is 12/1 on David's line) so that is the one I want to focus on. This filly lacks the intangibles one usually finds in Grade 1 juveniles, but she has already proven that she is a runner. After a tough trip debut - one in which she flashed speed in spots but only around finding trouble - she was much more clued in breaking her maiden in her second start. She broke running from the rail that day and handily held mild pressure around the turn, but it was the stretch run that pointed her out as a runner. I get that the filly that she turned away, Will Not Be Swayed, returned to lose at a short price, but she was clearly cranked up that day and Strong State readily engaged her in a duel before finding plenty in the late stages. I want her at a price in this race.

David's Response: 

I don’t want to be too dismissive of #8 The Queens M G. I know there are others in here with more upside, but I think she’s being a little underrated off those paired up 73 Beyers. I personally think that Adirondack number is too low for that field, and she’s better represented by her TimeformUS Speed Figures of 104 and 103, which account for fast paces. Those figures make her the clear horse to beat, and she might not be favored again.

I do think the likely favorite #11 Quietside is going to be a tough customer as she steps up to stakes company. She won impressively on debut, looking like a filly who wouldn’t have any trouble stretching out to the 7 furlongs. John Ortiz won this last year, and is 4 for 13 (31%, $3.40 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints.

I see where Mike is going with Strong State, but I personally couldn’t convince myself she was going to get better with added ground, which I think she needs to do. #7 Pondering is another who needs to step forward, but certainly has a right to do so after never being asked for her best on debut at Ellis. I get the sense she’s pretty good, but I wonder how far she wants to go since her dam’s side pedigree is all sprint.

My top pick is #1 Immersive. Upon first viewing that July 21 maiden race, the inclination might be take runner-up Salted instead of the winner, since that Mark Casse trainee blew the start and was making an eye-catching late run. Yet the race featured a pretty fast early pace, which Immersive was the one chasing before putting away the other speeds. Salted was never getting to her late Immersive maintained her strides nicely though the wire and galloped out well. This filly went off at a big price that day since she hadn’t been working that well prior to the debut, but she appears to have come out of the race well. Brad Cox absolutely excels with these types. He is a remarkable 23 for 55 (42%, $2.76 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints, and 7 for 17 (41%, $2.53 ROI) in 2YO stakes within that sample. She’s bred to go longer and I think she has a step forward in her.

David's Analysis: 

If all of these fillies and mares get their ideal trips and run to the best of their abilities, #1 War Like Goddess is going to win. However, if races were decided on sheer talent, she might have won 17 or 18 of her 20 starts as opposed to only 12. Trips matter a great deal, and she has been the victim of some less than ideal trips, including a few that were of her own making. I think she was probably the best horse in the Glens Falls last year when beaten after getting too rank early, and she also ran a remarkable race in the 2022 Flower Bowl when done in by a glacial early pace. These 3-turn races can be tricky, especially when dealing with a headstrong mare like her. I do think Junior Alvarado has developed a nice rapport with her, getting her to settle better than she has in the past. If the trip works out for her, she’s going to be a handful.

That’s not to suggest that main rival #7 McKulick is so vastly inferior – she’s pretty talented in her own right. I just think she was opportunistic when she beat the favorite last year, and she also was pretty fortunate last time when the pace developed for her. She is at her best when races are run in a manner that bring out her stamina. It’s unclear if that will be the case in this spot, though I suppose #8 Idea Generation has been entered to make the pace for her stablemate.

I gave consideration to #4 Eternal Hope, who just seemed a little too fresh off the layoff in the Glens Falls. I expect her to run better here, and her tactical speed should play well in this spot. I just don’t know if she’s going to offer value since these Godolphin/Appleby runners are so routinely overbet.

Mike's Response: 

I agree with all of the above and went with #1 War Like Goddess. I almost put Eternal Hope on top for the reasons noted by David and will use her prominently, as well. I like Neecie Marie but was not thrilled with her most recent effort and couldn't quite get there. She has made strides as a 4yo but wasn't as good as Eternal Hope last year, and that rival is just getting started on a 2024 campaign. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#9 Kick a Buck and #12 Palace View are not for me as the two favorites in the finale. 

The two horses I want to be alive to are #2 Heathguard and #5 Mr. Mendelssohn. The former was a bit disappointing earlier in the meet, though he pulled a wide trip in that spot. His prior two races were both strong efforts and he is dangerous in here if he can rebound.

Mr. Mendelssohn ran well on synthetic when stretched out earlier this year but he looked much more comfortable on turf when easily handling maidens at the end of April. He took an early bump and wound up far back saving ground in that last one, and he was between horses for much of the stretch run while trying to rally in an effort that is better than it looks. 

David's Response: 

Mike and I obviously see eye to eye here. I didn’t want the favorites, and also thought both longshots he highlighted were pretty interesting. I agree about the last trip for #2 Heathguard, and the only reason I didn’t put him on top is that I’m not confident this jockey can work out the trip he needs on turf.

I think #5 Mr. Mendelssohn can be more forward than he was last time, and I agree that he ran better than it appears. That seems to be the intention with him adding blinkers here. Ramon Vazquez has ridden well at the meet, and he figures to be a price for connections that don’t get bet in these types of races.