David: 

My primary opinion in this opener is that I don't really want #5 Blinging It Back. He figures to take money off stakes form, but he was no match for the winners of either the Tremont or Sanford, and I don't like that he took a significant step backwards in defeat last time. The experienced horse I prefer is #2 Tagermeen, who was chasing outside on July 12, a day that I thought the wet track was playing very kindly to rail runners. Steve Asmussen was once known for getting these types to improve second time out, and this horse worked very favorably with Obliteration since that debut.

Among the firsters, the one I'm mildly against is #1A Ted Noffey, who looks like the stronger half of the Spendthrift entry. Todd Pletcher has been firing with his 2-year-olds at this meet so far, but I thought this one would get overbet being part of an entry off some flashy workouts. 

I prefer the other Pletcher runner #6 Grittiness. With this race being 6 1/2 furlongs, I want a horse that looks like he'll stay the distance, and this well-bred son of Curlin fits the bill. His workouts aren't as eye-catching as the other Pletcher runner, but he's always staying on best at the end of those drills, looking like a horse who can finish strongly in this type of race. Some may view it as a negative that Dylan Davis is named, but Davis was given the mount on the stronger of two Pletcher firsters last Saturday.

Mike: 

I hear what David is saying regarding Blinging It Back, but I still think he's tough in here. I'll also use Tagermeen while avoiding first time starters. 

For wagers below: (D) = David, (M) = Mike

Mike: 

We're going long on turf, but like the dirt sprint kicking off the card, this has the look of a loaded MSW for 2-year-olds.

I'm sure David will have more insight into the first-time starters. The ones I was most interested in were #1 Sunrise and #4 Prodigious.  As usual, I prefer to lean on experienced horses in races like this, and #2 Signatory Man appears to finally be getting into the right spot as he makes start number three. This colt is bred to stretch out, yet he gained valuable experience in the sprint debut when bumped and carried in at the start to wind up at the back of that field early. He came widest to the stretch, and then raced on well despite still looking green. Forget about that last one when rained off the turf. He can improve quickly, and he might be a fair price.

David: 

There might be some talent in this field, but I found the main players tough to separate. Between the two Clement runners, I prefer #4 Prodigious along with Mike. He showed a nice turn of foot in that most recent turf drill and has plenty of pedigree. I don’t love the workouts for either Pletcher runner, and these aren't usually Todd's kind of races, though he has been winning with all types so far at this meet.

I here Mike regarding experience, though the one that I preferred of those who had run was #7 Orbit. This horse has nothing but turf pedigree, and actually showed some ability in the dirt debut, flashing speed before fading. He worked very well on turf prior to that start, and should run better here.

David: 

This is not a race I'll be betting individually. I mildly prefer #6 Obliteration between the two favorites, since Steve Asmussen does well with these types. #1 Ewing impressed me on debut, but Mark Casse's stats with horses coming off debuts aren't that strong. That said, I feel like I'm splitting hairs between these two. I'll probably be forced to lean on Obliteration if I play a multi-race sequence through here, but because of my lack of conviction I'll likely keep those light.

Mike: 

No bets here, as the two favorites stand out.

Mike: 

There are plenty of ways to go in this turf sprint for older horses, which drew a full field. Trips are going to be important here, and I am hoping that #3 Bonus Move might get a better one this time, after winding up getting bumped coming through the same hole as the eventual winner and losing his chance vs a few of these same rivals last time. 

#4 Clear the Air did not run well when chasing the fast and classy Nobals in that last one, but his prior race was good enough to make him competitive here, and he also ran well up here last summer, albeit on dirt. 

My wildcard to use at a price is #8 Bergen, who has shown talent on dirt and has some turf in his pedigree. 

David: 

Mike and I are pretty much on the same page here. I picked and bet #3 Bonus Move last time at over 20-1, and was frustrated with the ride he got. He ran a turf sprint early in his career that gives him a big chance here and has gotten limited opportunities in these kinds of races since then. He figures to be a fair price again. We also agree on #8 Bergen being interesting as he makes the surface switch. I was also tempted by #5 Run Curtis Run, who was compromised by a slow pace last time. He just rarely wins, and does himself no favors by breaking slowly.

David: 

There's a lot going on in this maiden event for the older fillies and mares. #4 Lost and Found seems like a legitimate favorite coming off two good efforts to kick off her career. She exits a fast race at Churchill Downs, and has worked well locally. The only minor concern is that both prior starts have come on wet, sealed tracks.

The horse I don't want any part of is #9 Endorse. She was well-meant on debut but failed to deliver, and then lost the rider second time out. It just feels like this filly might have missed her window of opportunity, and her lackluster recent workout confirms that notion.

Between the two Pletcher runners, I prefer the firster #1 Metfardeh. This filly took a while to come around, but she clearly outworked Endorse when they were paired up in that recent July 26 drill. Metfardeh is a massive filly, and seems well-suited to this 7-furlong distance. They paid a lot for her as a yearling and have taken their time getting her to the races. I'll be interested to see how she gets bet.

The horse I'm most interested in betting at the expected price is #2 My Sherrona. This filly showed talent for Ray Handal last winter, running the best race in defeat second time out when nearly surviving a fast pace. Then last time she held her own in the Busanda going a distance that may be too far for her. I like her cutting back to 7 furlongs, and Ray Handal does surprisingly well in this situation. He's 7 for 28 (25%, $2.69 ROI) off 150-300 day layoffs on dirt over 5 years. Her recent drills, in which she's outworked allowance winner Next On Stage, inspire some confidence.

Mike: 

I was also against Endorse. I won't argue too hard against My Sherrona at 6/1, but I don't really like any of her races. 

#4 Lost and Found looks like a horse still holding plenty of upside, and I like her shipping to Saratoga and putting races together for a barn that just wins up here. Because I didn't really like the race that #3 Ivory and Ebony and #7 Delightful Claire are exiting at Churchill, I will use the well-bred and well-connected #8 Schematic as my other horse. 

Mike: 

The sixth looks like another loaded MSW for 2-year-olds. I'll leave this open for David to comment, as he usually has more info to impart for races like this. 

I do like what I've seen from #9 Germantown working up to this. And the fact that Pletcher has been having a renaissance with his juveniles this year adds some confidence. 

Chad's $1 million purchase #4 Ornellaia has also looked good, both at the breeze-up and leading into her debut.

David: 

I thought there was a lot of guesswork to be done here, even for your typical 2-year-old maiden event at the Spa. I can't say I liked the workouts on either Pletcher horse, but I do think Mike landed on the one who will be a bigger price as a standalone entity. The entry is interesting not because of the other Pletcher, but rather due to #1A Solemn Vow, who appears to be working quite well for Al Stall. She's bred to be quick as a half-sister to Prince of Monaco and looks like a little speedball in her drills.

I agree that #4 Ornellaia might have ability, and I haven't minded the workouts for #7 Fletch's Rockette.

I put #2 Cadenza on top for a few reasons. I love her pedigree, by promising new sire Charlatan out of a dam who has produced nothing but pure runners in all types of situations. She bested Abrigado (debuts in the first race) in that last Saratoga drill, galloping out like a horse ready to go 6 furlongs on debut. As I mentioned last week, Brad Cox also has surprisingly strong stats debuting 2-year-olds at this meet.

David: 

I spent a long time combing through this oversubscribed optional claiming field and wish I could say I came away with stronger convictions. I do think #11 Creditworthy might have a future competing on dirt after winning an off the turf race last time. However, this is a tougher spot, and I'm not sure that I love him stretching out to 7 furlongs.

I made a score with #10 Pentathlon on Belmont Day, and I don’t usually like to go back to horses like this in their next starts moving up the class ladder. However, I do think he ran much better than the 84 Beyer indicates. That's a race that really needs a fig upgrade, as multiple horses have come back to improve in their next starts, especially those who were attending the very fast early pace. Pentathlon was never that far off it, and made a convincing move to take the race over late. I thought he had run better than it looks in his prior races this season, and believe he may still be underrated coming into this spot.

The other horse that mildly interested me was #8 Classic Legacy, who seems like the type that could pick up pieces if the pace comes apart. He just rarely wins, and Ron Moquett hasn't had much recent success at Saratoga.

Mike: 

I thought this was one of the tougher races on the card. I know who I don't like, but I still have several horses open in the race. I am taking a shot with #1 Hold My Bourbon at 10/1, on the idea that he has been in way too tough in his dirt starts since breaking his maiden last May. The win off the short layoff in March, even on a different surface, suggests that he has improved, and I think turning back will work for him.

Mike: 

The Fourstardave might be the toughest of the quartet of Grade 1s on the card. #3 Johannes has the best resume and is the logical starting point from a handicapping perspective. He's good, but he'd better be close to his best returning from a layoff in this spot.

I could make a logical case for just about anyone in here, but, from a wagering perspective, I think I have to give #10 Neat one more chance, particularly considering that he is going to be a big price in here. I obviously would have preferred for him to get a trip at 14/1 last time while in a more manageable spot (he did not, as a viewing of the replay will show anyone who hasn't seen it), but he can go with these horses if things work out for him this time. 

David: 

I can't argue with Mike's take on #10 Neat, who did have a wild trip last time in the Kelso. I doubted him that day, and still am not totally convinced by his overall body of work, but Mike isn't wrong about the strength of his last race.

Speaking of the Kelso, another horse who had a more subtle bad trip was #5 Win for the Money. He got hung 3-wide without cover around both turns, and was still staying on at the end. The inner turf course was playing to inside paths during Fourth of July weekend, so he deserves extra credit for overcoming that trip. He's another whose overall form gives me mixed signals, but I have to use him after he ran so well last time and drew a much better post in this spot.

I ended up going back to the Kelso winner #4 Think Big. I was pretty impressed by the late kick this horse produced in his first attempt going two turns on turf. He had been such a strong finisher in his prior turf sprints, and he showed the ability to generate that same acceleration going longer last time. It's also not as if he got an ideal trip, racing 2-wide around both turns before diving inside late. I think he still has upside as a top turf miler and view him as the most likely winner.

David: 

I expect #5 Test Score and #7 Hotazhell to be much closer in odds than I have them on the ML – this is one of the few lines today that I'd like to revise. I do think they're the two horses to beat, and I slightly prefer the proven class of Hotazhell, who has held his own against some of the best horses in Europe. I'm not so worried about the distance for him on a firm American course and believe he'll be a handful if he shows up with anything close to his good effort. I could envision him drifting up as high as 5-2 odds, and I don't think that's a terrible price on him.

Evaluating the Belmont Derby horses, I ultimately decided that #3 Final Gambit was the horse I wanted out of that race. I thought he finished the race with more left in the tank, not hitting his best stride until he was finally steered into the clear in the last sixteenth. It can be tough to time this horse's move correctly, but I'm hoping this race flow suits him better. I do think he has a future on turf, and is as naturally talented as anyone in this field. I would just need a decent price, at least 9-2, and there is always some concern horses with Kentucky Derby form lines may get overbet.

I also have some interest in Mike's top pick, who I probably should have placed higher in my picks. I'll let him elaborate on that one.

Mike: 

I am not against the favorites at all, but will try #1 Capitol Hill on top at a price. I was taken with this colt's turf debut when sitting comfortably and then running over a nice horse late, and thought he ran way better than it looks in his next start when enduring a very tough trip at Keeneland. 

He did get to save a lot of ground in his stakes debut last time, but he was too far behind early, and he put in a strong finish once he was taken out into the clear in the stretch. He might be pretty good, and if he is, this is the time to bet him.

Mike: 

David and I recorded videos for all of the stakes races on this card, so anyone interested in more in-depth analysis can find it on the DRF YouTube channel. I am not against the favorite in this race, but want to lean more on #3 Look Forward, who might still be underrated on the way into the Test, which could lead to her offering some value. She's undefeated sprinting, is 2 for 2 in her cutting when back in distance, and is the only filly in the field other than the favorite with a graded stakes win sprinting on dirt.  

David: 

I won't argue too hard against Mike's pick if she really is around my 8-1 ML, but she's not for me. I think we agree that the horse to beat is #6 Echo Sound, who was a very good 2-year-old and has only gotten better this season. There doesn't appear to be anything fluky about that 101 Beyer she earned last time, and a repeat of that effort will make her very tough for this group to handle.

I've just been taken by the first two efforts of #1 Ragtime, who is obviously getting a significant class test in her stakes debut. I'll freely admit that this isn't typically my kind of horse, especially if she's around my ML odds. I'm just going with a gut feeling that we haven't yet seen the best she has to offer. She's supposed to get an honest pace to close into, and I'm expecting a highly competitive effort.

David: 

Mike and I covered this race pretty comprehensively in our video preview on the DRF YouTube, if you want runner-by-runner analysis.

In terms of wagering strategy, my main idea here is to play against #9 Fierceness. I have some doubts about his form as a 4-year-old, and I wouldn't want to touch him at the expected price, almost surely south of 2-1.

The horse that I believe to be the most likely winner is #5 Sierra Leone, and I'll use him prominently in exotics and multi-race wagers. I'll also throw in #3 Highland Falls, especially underneath in exactas and trifectas. He seems to be coming back around, and should give a good account of himself here even if he isn't fully primed for a victory just yet.

But the horse I really want to bet is #10 Post Time. Perhaps he's a cut below some of the main players, but I don't think there's that big a gap in ability between he and the favorites. It's also hard to evaluate his form at the highest levels because I don't think he's gotten ideal rides or trips in a few of his prior graded stakes attempts. He benefits from pace up front, and there seems like a good chance of him getting the right setup here. He would need the trip to work out perfectly to win, and would have to outclose Sierra Leone. Yet it's not as if that horse has always been the most reliable win candidate at the highest levels himself. Post Time is due for some luck and figures to be underestimated, just as he was in this race last year.

Mike: 

I wish I had a stronger opinion on the alternatives in this interesting running of the Whitney. My main take is that I would (will) never bet Sierra Leone or Fierceness at a short price if there is another way to go that is even slightly interesting. I've also never liked White Abarrio in races like this and will lose if he wins.

I was torn between #3 Highland Falls and #10 Post Time, and wound up siding with the former, though I will try to get through this race leaning on the two of them against the shorter prices. 

Mike: 

I've chased #3 La Salvadorena a bit and am finally giving up on her, though she can win this race. 

#2 Perfect Figure ran well winning her career debut while showing big early speed and surviving a pace battle, then got in too tough in her next two starts. I thought she had a compromised trip off the layoff, though I didn't think she ran that well last time. I could still use her at anything like her ML odds.

I picked #8 Soloshot in a bit of a reach, though I've seen way worse 30-1 shots than her. She ran a couple of races last year that would give her a chance vs this field, and she has had two terrible trips in a row leading into this. 

David: 

No argument with #3 La Salvadorena being the one to beat, but I'm also getting a little tired of her.

I would have wanted to lean more strongly on #4 Upon a Star if there appeared to be less pace in this race, but it seems like they'll be moving up front. This daughter of Munnings is bred strongly for turf, and was meant to get on it last time. She just sold again for $100k (after Resolute acquired her for $75k) prior to the last start. Getting out of the barns of Ward and Cox might actually ensure a better price on her as she finally gets on this surface.

The horse I want to key around is #5 She's Got Will. She's never sprinted before, but she ran well to win her debut going two turns up here last summer. She then lost two stakes attempts, looking like a horse that might be asking for a turnback in distance. She traveled well to mid-stretch each time before flattening out. She's out of a sprinting dam, and Mark Casse is 6 for 23 (26%, $2.90 ROI) going from routes to sprints on turf off 180+ day layoffs over 5 years.

David: 

I suppose you have to respect the horses coming out of the race won by So Darn Pretty, but I can't say that I loved that field on the way in, and the result didn't exactly make me want to bet the also-rans. I do think #2 Peak Hype has some upside in her second start, and #4 Magnum's Microburst endured a less than ideal wide trip against a rail bias. Still, neither one excites me.

If I'm going to bet anyone here, it's #7 Twolatebabydoll assuming she's anywhere close to my ML. She looks a little slow on the way in, but she had a right to need her return from the layoff. I thought she took a subtle step forward last time, kicking on nicely in the lane after getting held up in traffic at the quarter pole. Al Stall has brought live runners to this meet, and I think this one fits very well against this group.

Mike: 

I only liked #2 Peak Hype and Twolatebabydoll in this race and would be happy to be alive to the two of them in multi-race wagers.