David:

As you can probably tell from my ML, I found this to be an extremely competitive race where strong cases could be made for each runner entered. #1 Fear of Union will probably drift higher since #1A Zippy Mark is entered back on Sunday and probably runs there. I wasn't thrilled with either one anyway, but I know Mike has a different opinion.

The horse I mildly prefer is #3 Norwich if he is around the ML price. This horse has run well in all of his dirt routes. Early connections pigeonholed him as a turf sprinter, but he's proven to be far more versatile than that. He won a hard-fought victory going two turns two back, a race from which 7 of the 8 runners improved their Beyers next time out. Last time he was a little unlucky not to win as Edgar Morales committed to the rail path in the stretch where there was very little room. Now he's claimed by Mike Maker, who is 7 for 30 (23%, $2.19 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at Saratoga over 5 years.

The other horse I'll use is #2 Airborne Elite, who ran well off the claim for Linda Rice at Ellis Park, just missing with his late lunge at the wire. This long-striding grey gelding has primarily sprinted during his career, but had no trouble with the added distance last time. I slightly prefer Norwich, but I could easily upgrade the Rice runner if he's a better price.

Mike: 

I wanted to give Zippy Mark a chance in this race, though he is unlikely to participate. I don't think there is anything interesting about any of the others and am unlikely to be betting. 

For wagers below: (D) = David, (M) = Mike

Mike: 

I don't like betting these 2-year-old MSW races unless I have an idea at a price. In my opinion, both #4 One Holy Roller and #5 Maxpower might fit that bill. I sided with Maxpower, as she might get a bit less attention. She is by a new sire who is off to a hot start in Maxfield (5 for 17 with first-time starters so far). The dam went 0-2 in her career while racing exclusively on turf, but she is a sister to the excellent dirt sprinter Clearly Now, who won multiple graded stakes and earned over $1 million. Maxpower ships in for a trainer who does good work with first-time starters, and she has been breezing right along at Monmouth.

David: 

It sounds like Mike and I agree about the interesting first time starters in this state-bred maiden where those with experience don't do much for me. #4 One Holy Roller is by highly underrated debut sire Bustin Stones, who clicks with 21% of his 2-year-old first time starters. There is more win-early pedigree on the dam's side, and Kelly Breen can have one ready to fire first time out. I would also throw #3 Avery's Wonderland into the mix, since he's by 17% juvenile debut sire Omaha Beach out of a full-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Paulassilverlining and half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Dads Caps.

David:

There are some interesting things going on with just about everyone in this field, but I ultimately felt that #2 Treaty Obligation would be tough to beat if he showed up with anything close to his best effort. This drop in class doesn't bother me too much, since Linda Rice claimed him for $50k last year and has made back more than twice that figure since then. It looks like his form has really tailed off, but he didn't run nearly as bad as the result suggests two back when stumbling badly at the start and always having poor position. His last race was a little worse, but he's been freshened. The fact that Irad is climbing aboard gives me confidence, since Rice has put him on nothing but live mounts. They're 8:5-2-0 (63%, $5.06 ROI) teaming up so far at the current meet.

#1 Magnolia Midnight is obviously a threat to wire the field, and his rail draw could be an advantage in this small field, as long as he breaks cleanly. His recent form has been spotty, but he's always best when he can control the pace. The one other horse I tried to make a case for is #5 Unclecharliesgift, who did face much tougher company last time. I wish I could get a little more excited about his Gulfstream races, but he does figure to be a fair price given the connections.

Mike: 

I like the same two horses highlighted above, and I also failed to warm up to Unclecharliesgift, who might not be as good as he looks on paper. 

Mike: 

I don't have a lot to say about this race. #6 Tennessee Belle ran well enough to win a lot of juvenile MSW sprints when debuting early in the meet. She just happened to bump into one of the more impressive fillies we have seen to this point in the season, and had to settle for second-best. That experience gives her a big edge on this field, and I have little interest in betting against her.

David: 

Like Mike, I have little interest in trying to beat #6 Tennessee Belle, who arguably could have finished closer to that impressive winner last time if ridden with a bit more urgency. She broke on top, but Joel Rosario gave her an education behind horses. She lost some momentum staying in on the far turn while the winner got the jump on her outside. She kicked strongly when produced in the stretch. I won't be surprised to see her show more of that speed this time, and I expect she'll be tough to beat.

The only first time starter that really interests me is #5 Cognition, who has been working forwardly for her debut. Practical Joke is a strong debut influence, but Chad Brown tends to get overbet with these types.

David:

The horse to beat in this intriguing first-level allowance optional claimer is #4 Fuerteventura, one of the horses entered for a $50k tag as a 7-time winner. A repeat of his last race could easily put him into the winner's circle against this bunch, but I have some reservations. He got an excellent ride from Kendrick Carmouche that day, saving every inch of ground before tipping out to issue his challenge on the final turn. He chased home the superior Corruption, but no one did any running behind them. On paper, this looks like an easier spot, but I think there are a few intangibles that could complicate the task for this favorite.

#5 Il Siciliano might have run the best race of anyone here when just missing at the level last time. He launched a wild backstretch move to make up around 15 lengths in the span of a quarter-mile. And that was no optical illusion – Gmax confirms he ran that backstretch quarter in 23.06 seconds with still 3 furlongs to run. While that was an unconventional ride, it might have actually been the perfect set of tactics for a horse that needs to start his run early to have any chance, being a grinder without much of a kick. I worry that Luis Saez won't look to replicate that strategy here.

#6 Zverev is interesting purely due to the Mike Maker claim, since this barn has had so much success stretching out new acquisitions like this. He's bred to run longer, and he's coming off one of his better recent efforts, closing into a slow pace.

The horse that I really want to bet here is #7 Investment Mandate. With some multiple winners racing for a tag in here, this might seem like a tough spot for a lightly raced horse that fits the allowance condition. However, I do think this gelding has significant upside going longer. His debut was a much better effort than the result indicates, as he got shuffled on the final turn and was full of run while trying to weave through traffic in the late stages. He got a much better ride last time, and finished with a flourish to get up on the wire. He's bred to go longer as a half-brother to an 11-furlong winner. I believe he's better than his figures suggest, and he figures to be a fair price, even for this potent barn.

Mike: 

I thought about David's pick, but he is my least favorite kind of horse to bet. If Investment Mandate was trained by (just about) anyone other than Chad Brown, he would be 10/1 in this field. Because he is well-connected, you will have to take half that price. The 4, 5, and 6 are logical, but I'm betting #3 Outsource. This horse improved noticeably when switched to turf off the claim, putting in a big move from last to pull off an upset. He went in a NY-bred stakes race last time, where he faced a solid field and ran well again while making late ground from last, and then galloping out well past the wire. The distance is something of a question, but he is almost certain to be a fair price. 

Mike: 

The third MSW on the card 2-year-old fillies is a turf sprint. I was between #3 Keto Drink and #9 In Her Glory, both of whom made useful runs from off the pace in their respective debuts. The 9 will be the better price, but Keto Drink seems the type to surely improve for Shug, and she likely debuted in the much tougher race. 

I also want to use #6 Pisces Moon somewhere at a price, as she also debuted in a good field, where she acted very green throughout in a race she appeared to really need.

David: 

I agree about #3 Keto Drink being likely to improve, and if she does she'll obviously be a handful. She strikes me as a horse who may possess more speed than she displayed first time out, where she got pretty keen at the back of the pack before rallying. I just didn't want to default to the shortest price in a race that seems pretty strong for the level.

#8 Bibi Dahl intrigues me in her return from Royal Ascot. She faded to eighth in the G3 Albany over there, but she actually was in the mix until the last furlong over that demanding 6-furlong trip. This filly chased home a good one on debut, and Jorge Delgado has done very well with horses he ships to Saratoga.

I'm using her, but the horse I want to bet the most is #5 Headspin. This first time starter may get dismissed at a fair price in such a loaded race even though she appears to be working well. She looked turf-inclined in that 20 3/5 OBS drill, and she's certainly bred to handle being by Hard Spun. Bill Mott is surprisingly 5 for 25 (20%, $4.10 ROI) with first time starters in turf sprints at NYRA over 5 years.

David:

There is some buzz around #4 Hero Declared, who makes his anticipated debut for Whit Beckman. This $575k OBS purchase showed off deceptive speed when breezing a 10-flat furlong at the sale, and has handled his morning preparations since then with an eager professionalism. He's bred to win early, and is clearly dangerous for a barn that has done well on debut. The only drawback is a likely short odds, especially considering that this is a barn that you generally get at prices first time out.

There's only one rival with dirt experience, and I do believe #7 Forever Man can run better here. He walked out of the starting gate on debut, and then encountered traffic in upper stretch just as he was gathering momentum. This may be a tough spot for him, but he should pick up pieces late.

The firster that I would want to bet is #5 It's Our Time for Tom Amoss. This barn is underrated with first time starters at this meet. Amoss is 4 for 13 debuting on dirt at Saratoga over 5 years, with 7 of those 13 finishing in the exacta. That's a remarkable performance considering how competitive these 2-year-old races can be. I've only seen a couple of his workout videos, but he appears to travel strongly, showing easy speed. Not This Time is an excellent debut sire and there's good sprint pedigree on the dam's side.

Mike: 

I picked Hero Declared, and have David's pick in there with him. No bets.

Mike: 

I initially thought I was going to be against #7 Aggregation when I went through this race. After coming back to it, I think he is going to be tough in here, even with a long layoff in play. Siding with him makes it tough for me to bet this race, as he is not going to be a very interesting price, but I just could not warm up to the alternatives. 

David likes a price so he can use the space to make a case for his pick.

David: 

I'm not betting #7 Aggregation at a short price, but I acknowledge that Chad can win with these types. The other horse that I that seems logical is #4 Cicciobello, who was a stakes winner on this circuit last year before going to the sidelines. He didn't run well in his return, but he had a right to need that start against much tougher competition. This seems like a realistic placement for the 6-year-old.

I rarely trust fast paces to develop out of the Wilson Chute, since the horses are basically forced to sort themselves out in the span of a sixteenth of a mile, and that generally prevents multiple horses from sending too hard. Yet it does feel like there is the possibility that this pace could be a bit more contested than the typical Wilson Chute race with several horses needing to be forward to have their best chance.

#5 Rock the Weekend should be the beneficiary of any pace that develops, and he's going to be an awfully big price for a horse that has run races that make him competitive here. He does come off a couple of disappointing efforts, but he wanted no part of 1 1/8 miles two back, and last time he got a very wide trip in a race that was dominated by horses who were forward and saving ground. These aren't connections that win much at Saratoga, but I don't trust the favorites, and this horse has outrun his odds in spots like this before.

David:

Unfortunately, this race was affected by some key scratches. I originally wasn't trying to beat likely favorite Sandal's Song, but he is out. The only alternative I could seriously consider was #8 Spirit of New York, and I know Mike has some interest in that horse.

Mike: 

I have nothing to add to David's analysis above. I expect Weaver's horses to be very tough to get past. If I bet the race, it will be because Spirit of New York gets overlooked, as I thought he was impressive winning his debut for an underrated trainer. 

Mike: 

There is quite a bit on the line in the Alabama, with three fillies in contention for an Eclipse award in the field. Yet all of #2 Good Cheer, #4 Nitrogen, and #6 La Cara have questions to answer in this spot. I found all of them to be hard to trust, and tried really hard to make a case for getting #1 Margie's Intention to upset the field. I ultimately couldn't get there, meaning I am unlikely to bet this race. I picked La Cara, but picks are meaningless in this instance. She should be in control of the pace, and that is when she is most dangerous, though this distance is likely to push her limits even if she does get loose on the lead. 

David: 

I won't advocate too hard for betting #4 Nitrogen here, since she does have some major surface questions to answer. I generally don't go for horses like this, since you can't always trust sealed wet track form, especially from off the turf races, translating to a truly run scheduled dirt affair. Yet I do believe that this filly is the most talented horse in the race, and I don’t have too many concerns about her getting the 1 1/4 miles distance. She figures to get her preferred trip, perched just outside of stablemate and likely pacesetter #6 La Cara. If she handles the surface, I believe she'll win, and I think a Mark Casse exacta is highly probable.

My main take on this race is that I'm mildly against #2 Good Cheer. I don't want to use the wet track as an excuse in the Acorn, since she had shown no aversion to wet surfaces before that race. I also don't think that track was quiet as speed-favoring as some made it out to be. She was just off her game that day, and when you take stock of her prior form, it's pretty easy to argue that she had been flattered by inferior competition. The waters are deeper here, and I'm not convinced she's still supreme among this division.

David:

There appears to be plenty of pace signed on in this $35k conditioned claimer. Otherwise I would have more strongly considered #10 Kid Kreesa, who gets a positive rider switch to Ricardo Santana. He set pretty honest paces in his last two starts before fading, but he could find himself in a similar position here.

#1 Assertiveness is obviously the horse to beat as he drops down for Todd Pletcher. Yet Pletcher is just 3 for 21 ($1.46 ROI) with non-maidens first time for a tag on turf over 5 years. I also have some concerns about this horse stretching out to 1 1/16 miles since I don't think he gets better with added ground. You also have to consider that Luis Saez has been riding quite poorly at this meet, especially given the likely short price on this runner.

I think I'm going to agree with Mike's take on #5 Mo Go, so I'll let him cover that horse.

I just wanted a slightly better price and thought #7 Landman Friday might offer some value. His running style fits the expected pace scenario, and I think he's a little better than his speed figures indicate. It's hard to believe he won that maiden race back in April when you watch the replay, as he got shuffled back on the turn and appeared to be in a hopeless position before displaying a wicked turn of foot to shoot up the rail. He was subsequently entered in some tough spots and scratched a few times. He finally returned at Delaware where he just stayed on at one pace. The form was flattered when the runner-up returned to just miss in a tougher spot behind Stars and Strides last week. I'm generally forgiving of performances over that Delaware turf course, and he may have been prepping for Saratoga, a meet Gargan targets.

Mike: 

I probably spent too much time looking at this race. I know I don't want Assertiveness as the favorite, but the others were not that easy to separate. 

#5 Mo Go improved noticeably with the surface switch when breaking his maiden first-time on turf with a 78 Beyer. His only start on this surface since came in a short sprint off an extended layoff, and he has gotten back into form since stretching out on dirt recently. He looks well-spotted for his return to grass while making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice.

At a much bigger price, I will use #6 Magni, who ran well winning his turf debut two starts back, then had a bit of a trip in a tougher race last time. This is the right drop, and he gets a positive rider change for this. 

Mike: 

I like #2 Not for Hire in the finale. He impressed winning on debut with a show of speed, then ran okay in an open stakes race before getting the winter off. He had no chance with the faster Friend Ofthe Devil when back to sprinting off the layoff, and he has had two less-than-ideal trips since, including that last one when squeezed back to last early. He might be a lot better than he looks on paper, and can do better if able to get a forward position this time.

The other horse I was interested in is #10 Pay the Juice, who might appreciate turning back to sprint in this spot, after lacking finishing power in recent attempts routing. 

David: 

I have little to add. I completely agree with Mike's take on #2 Not for Hire. I would lean on him in any sequences that end here. I tried #5 Courtly Banker last time when he turned back, and that was probably the time to catch him at 10-1. He wasn't quite good enough, and I also don't trust this jockey to negotiate a better trip here. #8 Sir Katrite is mildly interesting getting on turf for the first time, running his best race on a sealed track. I just think all of these will have to improve if Not for Hire puts it all together, as we expect he will.