Race 13 |1 1/4m | 7:04 PM ET | 3yo | $2M
STRENGTHS: He appears to be an up-and-coming sort. He put
in a sustained run last out to win his first career stakes in the
Peter Pan. The performance, coupled with the fact that he’s out
of a mare by Lemon Drop Kid, suggests he might appreciate the
1 1/4-mile distance of the Belmont. He’s also appealing because
he’s represented himself well against champion Citizen Bull and
Grade 1 winners Gaming and Chancer McPatrick. Additionally,
Hill Road has shown adaptability and versatility as a winner on
turf and dirt who has raced at five different tracks between Ireland
and the United States. Saratoga is something of a home track for his
trainer, Chad Brown, while his jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., has won the
Belmont Stakes with Mo Donegal (2022) and Creator (2016).
WEAKNESSES: He’s a closer, and there’s a chance the race
shape could work against him, as Rodriguez is a candidate to steal
away. Flavien Prat, who was aboard Hill Road for his most recent
start, will be riding Baeza in the Belmont. Hill Road has never
raced on a wet main track, and earlier this week, there was a 90
percent chance of morning thundershowers for Saturday, according to AccuWeather.
BETTING VALUE: He figures to be generous odds despite
winning the local prep in the Peter Pan, and he’s performed well
as a longshot in the past. Last year, he was 61-1 when third in the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which marked his first start on dirt and
first in North America.
SIRE: Quality Road had brilliance that he could stretch around
two turns. His longer-distance wins included Grade 1s in the Flor-
ida Derby, Donn Handicap, and Woodward, but he also shortened
up for wins that included the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap.
He has added to that race’s reputation as a stallion-making race.
Many of his top progeny show both speed and stamina, including
Eclipse Award champion National Treasure, winner of the Preak-
ness, Pegasus World Cup, and Met Mile; and fellow champion Abel
Tasman, whose six Grade 1 wins included the Kentucky Oaks and
one-turn Acorn. Quality Road recently passed a career milestone
of more than 100 stakes winners.
DAM: Exotic Notion, by Belmont Stakes winner and solid brood-
mare sire Lemon Drop Kid, won 4 of 9 starts and only missed the
board once while racing in Argentina. She won from seven furlongs
to 1 1/4 miles and was second in the Jockey Club de Rosario at the
latter distance. This is the first starter for the mare, who is a half-
sister to Quality Road’s multiple Grade 1 winner City of Light. Their
granddam is Fabulous Notion, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Susana
at 1 1/16 miles. She produced Grade 1 Test winner Fabulously Fast.
OUTLOOK: This pedigree is a good blend of speed and stamina,
and this is a proven cross, with close relative City of Light show-
ing both attributes. He won the Grade 1 Triple Bend and Grade 1
Malibu sprinting and went longer to win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt
Mile and Pegasus World Cup.
STRENGTHS: Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby with a
surprisingly uneventful trip considering the large field. The win was
not a fluke. Sovereignty’s 25.28-second final quarter was fastest in the
field. He drew away late, as expected from a genuine 1 1/4-mile horse.
Sovereignty’s speed figures continue to rise, not in a straight line,
but they are rising. He reportedly has trained well since his Derby
victory, and with five weeks between starts enters the Belmont relatively fresh. When he won the Kentucky Derby in a breakout performance, he was entering off a similar five-week break.
WEAKNESSES: Late-runner Sovereignty benefited from a
contested pace in the Kentucky Derby, but the Belmont is likely to
unfold at a slower tempo. This does not suit Sovereignty, who seems
more pace-dependent than main rivals Journalism and Baeza.
Sovereignty’s chance to win the Belmont may depend on how much
pressure longshot Crudo applies to likely pacesetter Rodriguez. The
most decisive wins by Sovereignty have come at Churchill Downs,
which might be coincidence. Sovereignty ran well at Saratoga last
summer, finishing fourth in his career debut. Pace and surface
preference are not necessarily weaknesses, only an acknowledgement that Sovereignty had advantageous conditions winning the
Kentucky Derby. He also happens to be a very good horse.
BETTING VALUE: Sovereignty’s odds in the Belmont will be
short compared to the Derby, and he is unlikely to benefit from a
fast pace. Sovereignty is a good horse, but he is not a good bet unless
he starts at 7-2 or higher.
SIRE: Into Mischief, who claimed his sixth consecutive lead-
ing sire title in 2024, was represented by his third Kentucky Derby
winner in Sovereignty, joining 2020 victor Authentic and 2021
official winner Mandaloun. Into Mischief first made his name as
the sire of brilliantly fast runners, like Eclipse champion sprinters Covfefe and Gamine. But, as the mares visiting him during his
career have changed, he has shown the ability to sire routers as
well, like his Derby colts, Kentucky Oaks winner and champion
Pretty Mischievous, and Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River.
Some of his best, like multiple Grade 1 winners Goldencents and
Life Is Good, could both sprint and route.
DAM: Unraced Crowned is the dam of two winners from three
starters, all by Into Mischief. Alongside Sovereignty, she has Jane
Grey, a winner at seven furlongs. But there’s more stamina deeper in
the pedigree, and Crowned’s first three dams are all stakes winners.
She is out of millionaire Mushka, who won the Grade 1 Spinster by
disqualification and won at up to 1 3/8 miles. Mushka’s granddam
is four-time Grade 1 winner Lakeway, who was beaten a head in the
Kentucky Oaks. Bernardini has left his mark as an outstanding
broodmare sire who can impart stamina in that regard.
OUTLOOK: This is a classy, route-type female family that
represents the kind of mares Into Mischief began garnering as his
reputation soared. Sovereignty, from one of the nation’s leading
programs, has already proven his ability to handle the 10 furlongs
with aplomb.
STRENGTHS: Speed is an asset that could give Rodriguez
a tactical advantage in the Belmont, as there’s a good chance he
will control the pace. He wired the field in the Wood Memorial
and, as he has for the Belmont Stakes, shipped cross-country for
the race from his Southern California base. Rodriguez twice has
earned Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or better, and the numbers stack
up favorably against the top contenders in the Belmont. His sire,
Authentic, was a perfect 2 for 2 at Saturday’s distance and also
was trained by Bob Baffert, who has saddled three winners of the
Belmont. Mike Smith, who will ride Rodriguez, also is a three-time
winner of the race. Baffert and Smith teamed to win the 2018 Triple
Crown with Justify.
WEAKNESSES: There’s a chance Rodriguez could get hooked
by Crudo, who has won his last two starts wire to wire. However,
Rodriguez withstood some pressure from Captain Cook in the
Wood. Rodriguez is a late May foal, and he’s never raced on a wet
track. Earlier this week, AccuWeather reported there’s a 90 percent
chance of morning thundershowers on Saturday. Rodriguez must
again face Journalism, to whom he finished a distant third in the
San Felipe in March.
BETTING VALUE: Excellent. He figures to go off as fourth
choice and looks like a runner who might get a highly favorable
race shape. He also seems like an individual coming into his own
for Hall of Fame connections who have had a significant amount of
success in the 3-year-old classics.
SIRE: Authentic was a later bloomer, and the postponement of
the 2020 Kentucky Derby due to the COVID-19 pandemic helped
him. After showing talent in the spring, he got his first Grade 1 win
in the Haskell in July, won the Derby in September, was second in
the Preakness in October, and won the Breeders’ Cup Classic to be
named Horse of the Year. His foals seem to also be developing with
time and want a route of ground. To date, he is the sire of two stakes
winners and another five stakes-placed runners, with an average
winning distance of 7.5 furlongs. Authentic is by six-time reigning
leading sire Into Mischief, who recorded a record-tying third Derby
winner with Sovereignty.
DAM: Cayala, by champion sprinter Cherokee Run, was a
winning sprinter. She is the dam of three other stakes horses, all
by Into Mischief. Stakes-winning sprinter Provocateur is Grade
1-placed around one turn; One Timer won the Grade 3 Southwest
and was later second in the Pimlico Special; and Roderick was a
stakes-placed juvenile. This is the family of Donn Handicap and
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus and Grade 1
winner Daredevil.
OUTLOOK: As shown by Cayala’s other foals, this cross can
produce either sprint or route ability. Rodriguez has shown he can
stretch his speed when free-running. Sire Authentic could win top-
level races by being brave on the lead. It remains to be seen whether
his progeny inherit that trait.
STRENGTHS: He’s won 2 of 4 career starts, including a win in
the mud two back where he posted his best career figure. His lack
of races is a concern, but it also means he has lots of upside, and
though he was off the board in his latest he wasn’t beaten all that
badly in that stakes debut. Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont
Stakes four times, and Uncaged’s sire, Curlin, missed by only a
head in this race to the Pletcher-trained Rags to Riches, suggesting this colt could improve with the added distance of the Belmont
Stakes.
WEAKNESSES: Has not yet run nearly fast enough to win this
race – or hit the board – as his last couple of Beyers were his best
yet but they are still well below what the others have been posting.
He was sixth last time out in his lone stakes try, the Grade 3 Peter
Pan, and this is a much tougher test. The added distance is a challenge as the Peter Pan was his first try around two turns, and he’s
obviously spotting many of his rivals key experience when it comes
to negotiating 1 1/4 miles.
BETTING VALUE: He’ll be among the longest prices in the field.
Always-confident owner Mike Repole guaranteed Daily Racing
Form reporter David Grening only “a top-seven finish.” It was
tongue-in-cheek, but also reflective of this colt’s realistic chances.
SIRE: Curlin, by classic sire Smart Strike, raced with distinc-
tion through the 2007 Triple Crown. The Preakness was among his
Grade/Group 1 wins at route distances, along with the 2007 Breed-
ers’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup. As a sire, the two-time
Horse of the Year passes on that stamina. He is the sire of 2013
Belmont winner Palace Malice, 2016 Kentucky Derby runner-up
and Preakness winner Exaggerator, and now, Preakness winner
Journalism. Six other individuals by the stallion have finished in
the top three in Triple Crown races. Although he has a few outliers,
such as two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Cody’s Wish and
two-time Sprint winner Elite Power, Curlin’s Eclipse champions
have generally excelled at two-turn distances.
DAM: Dark Nile scored all four of her wins, including the Grade 3
Delaware Oaks, beyond a mile. She is the dam of two winners from
three starters, and both have won at a mile or longer. The mare is
the only starter out of her unraced dam. Second dam Tres Coronas was a stakes performer at middle distances on turf. Pioneerof
the Nile, from the classic Unbridled line, is the sire of Triple Crown
winner American Pharoah. As a broodmare sire, he is represented
by 20 stakes winners, including Louisiana Derby winner Catching
Freedom, third in last year’s Preakness.
OUTLOOK: While this female family is lighter on top-level
accomplishments in its immediate generations, Uncaged’s pedigree
does cross two of the most prominent modern American classic
sirelines. Curlin’s progeny generally handle wet tracks very well.
STRENGTHS: He’s lightly raced but he continues to improve for
Todd Pletcher, who has won the Belmont Stakes four times, and as
recently as 2022 (Mo Donegal). He passed his two-turn test with
flying colors in the Sir Barton, scoring by 7 1/2 lengths and posting
the best Beyer of his short career. The Belmont Stakes will mark
his third start off the layoff, and he could be set for his best effort
yet. His proven speed means he’ll be a factor from the outset, and
his breeding suggests the distance won’t be an issue.
WEAKNESSES: The Belmont is always a challenge, especially
for a horse making only his fourth career start and stepping way
up in class. The front-running score in the Sir Barton is what got
him here, but he was loose on the lead yet unable to post a figure
that stamps him as a contender in this race. He’s not likely to shake
loose again, and his chances of lasting for a part after a race-long
duel going much farther than he ever has gone are not good, to say
the least.
BETTING VALUE: He’ll be a long price thanks to his lack of
experience, and rightly so. Hard to envision a scenario where he
can hit the board without a major move forward in terms of Beyers
SIRE: Triple Crown winner Justify, who has had a phenomenal
start to his stud career, has followed in the footsteps of his own sire,
Scat Daddy, who was was a versatile and an international success.
Justify’s own ability to impart stamina is shown in European Horse
of the Year City of Troy, a classic winner and top-flight performer
at up to 1 1/2 miles on turf, and Eclipse Award champion Just F Y I, whose biggest win came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at
1 1/16 miles. Justify’s other Grade/Group 1 winners are this year’s
one-mile English 2000 Guineas victor Ruling Court; Aspen Grove
and Opera Singer, whose top-level wins came at 1 1/4 miles on turf;
Hard to Justify, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
at a mile; and Arabian Lion and Ramatuelle, winners at seven
furlongs on dirt and turf, respectively.
DAM: Unraced Blossomed is the dam of 10 winners from 11 start-
ers. With his win in the Sir Barton, Crudo became her fifth stakes
winner. Blossomed’s runners have had success around both one
and two turns, as her other stakes winners include Grade 1 winner
Sippican Harbor; Bodacious Babe, also a stakes winner at seven
furlongs; and Saayedd, a stakes winner at 10 furlongs in Dubai
earlier this year. Bodacious Babe is now the dam of recent Grade
3 Shawnee winner Royal Spa. Leading broodmare sire Deputy
Minister’s daughters have produced two-time Horse of the Year
and prominent classic influence Curlin, who won the 2007 Preak-
ness; 2007 Kentucky Oaks and Belmont Stakes winner and cham-
pion Rags to Riches; 2006 Belmont winner Jazil; and 2017 Oaks
winner and champion Abel Tasman.
OUTLOOK: Runners from both sides of this very active family
can either sprint or route, on dirt and turf. The developing Crudo,
who was green prior to his last start, is a very interesting prospect.
STRENGTHS: Baeza, third in the Kentucky Derby, is fast and
getting faster. Only a handful of 3-year-olds this year have earned
triple-digit Beyers, Baeza did it twice (102, 101) while earning higher
figures each subsequent start. Who knows his ceiling? A late foal
(May 13), Baeza was not even 3 years old when he ran in the Kentucky
Derby. After getting bogged in heavy traffic into the stretch of the
Derby, Baeza ran his final quarter in a solid 25.31 seconds. The
only runner who finished faster was Sovereignty with a 25.28 final
quarter. Baeza, who trains and runs like a genuine 1 1/4-mile horse,
has more tactical speed than he produced in the Derby. He can be
forwardly placed in the Belmont behind likely pacesetter Rodriguez.
With five weeks between starts, Baeza is fresh compared to Journal-
ism, who is making his third start in five weeks.
WEAKNESSES: Based on head-to-head competition, Baeza falls
short. Baeza lost to Belmont entrant Journalism both times they’ve
met. Baeza lost to Belmont entrants Sovereignty and Rodriguez
each time they met. Furthermore, Baeza shipped often this spring:
California to Kentucky, back to California, now to New York for the
Belmont. Frequent travel sometimes takes a toll.
BETTING VALUE: It’s tough to find value in a small field, but at
7-2 or higher, Baeza would be worth backing to catch Rodriguez and
turn the tables on Sovereignty and Journalism. But if Baeza starts
at less than that price, he will be an underlay.
SIRE: McKinzie, by Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, was
a Grade 1 winner around two turns in the Los Alamitos Futurity,
Pennsylvania Derby, and Whitney. He also was a multiple graded
winner around one turn, including the Grade 1 Malibu. Overall,
he won seven graded stakes and placed in six more from ages 2 to
5. His record suggested he could have good 2-year-olds who would
continue on, and the first step was taken by his initial crop last
year, with Grade 1 winners Chancer McPatrick and Scottish Lassie
leading the way.
DAM: Puca, a half-sister to Grade 1-winning turf router
Finnegans Wake, was Grade 2-placed in the Gazelle, but her brood-
mare career is where she has really shined. Puca is the dam of 2023
Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner
Dornoch, making her one of just nine mares to ever produce two
winners of an American Triple Crown race. That recently earned
her Broodmare of the Year honors. Along with Mage, who earned
additional Grade 1 placings, and Dornoch, who also won the Grade
1 Haskell, Puca’s other two foals to race are both stakes performers
as well – Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza and multiple
stakes-placed Gunning.
OUTLOOK: Baeza, who sold for seven figures as a yearling, has
always been regarded as a classic-type prospect, and that impression has grown as the family added honors in the last 18 months.
He should have an affinity for this distance. Street Sense is a solid
wet-track sire and it appears he passed that on through McKinzie,
as Baeza ran well on the sloppy track in the Derby
STRENGTHS: Journalism, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby
and winner of the Preakness Stakes, is the only 3-year-old this
season with three triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. Journalism is
fearless, which he demonstrated when he plowed between rivals to
win the Preakness. As for the Derby, one could argue Journalism
ran every bit as well as the winner Sovereignty. Journalism encountered early traffic and was farther off the pace than planned. The
physically attractive Journalism has never run a bad race. He is 5
for 7 with a second and a third, and reportedly trained well follow-
ing his dramatic Preakness win.
WEAKNESSES: Three starts in five weeks is ambitious. Jour-
nalism will be the only horse this year to contest all three Triple
Crown races. When he came off the bit on the final turn of the Preakness, he looked to be in deep water. It can be an unfavorable devel-
opment when a horse drops the bit. Is Journalism trouble-prone?
Perhaps. He was race-ridden by a rival jockey into a compromising
position when he won the Santa Anita Derby. He bulled through
rivals in the rough-and-tumble stretch of the Preakness. Perhaps
Journalism is unlucky. Perhaps his rider is partly responsible.
BETTING VALUE: Journalism is a likely underlay and will
be making his third start in a five-week period while facing fresh
horses who skipped the Preakness. Unless he starts at 7-2 or higher,
which is not likely, Journalism offers minimal value even if one
could reasonably argue he is the best in his crop.
SIRE: Curlin, by classic sire Smart Strike, raced with distinc-
tion through the 2007 Triple Crown. The Preakness was among his
Grade/Group 1 wins at route distances, along with the 2007 Breed-
ers’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup. As a sire, the two-time
Horse of the Year passes on that stamina. He is the sire of 2013
Belmont winner Palace Malice, 2016 Kentucky Derby runner-up
and Preakness winner Exaggerator, and now, Preakness winner
Journalism. Six other individuals by the stallion have finished in
the top three in Triple Crown races. Although he has a few outliers,
such as two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Cody’s Wish and
two-time Sprint winner Elite Power, Curlin’s Eclipse champions
have generally excelled at two-turn distances.
DAM: This is the first foal for Mopotism, who won the Grade 2 La
Canada at a mile and was on the board in 10 other graded stakes,
including Grade 1 placings at seven furlongs and 1 1/16 miles.
Mopotism is out of a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winning
sprinter Songster. Champion and classic sire Uncle Mo is emerging
as a solid broodmare sire, with the likes of reigning Horse of the
Year Thorpedo Anna.
OUTLOOK: Journalism is another standout for a sireline that
has been exceptionally successful in the American classics. That
top line balances out a female family that is lighter on top-level
accomplishments after his first dam, but adds some speed to the
equation. Curlin and his progeny handle wet tracks, as Journalism
confirmed in the Derby.
STRENGTHS: Distance appears to be his friend. Heart of Honor
has raced at 1 3/16 miles in each of his last three starts in what
would seem to be an ideal segue to the 1 1/4-mile Belmont. He exits
the Preakness, a race in which he lost momentum on the final turn
and re-rallied to make up a nice amount of ground and finish fifth.
The race was his first in North America, and he would seem to
have reason to move forward in his second Stateside start. Heart of
Honor also is consistent. The U.A.E. Derby runner-up has finished
first or second in all but one of his seven starts and handed eventual
Saudi Derby winner Golden Vekoma his only loss.
WEAKNESSES: The Beyer Speed Figure of 86 that Heart of
Honor earned in his North American debut lags behind the triple-
digit numbers the Belmont’s top contenders will bring into the
race. Further, the pace scenario could work against Heart of Honor.
He used closing tactics last time and would be at a distinct disadvantage were Rodriguez to get loose on the lead. Heart of Honor
has never raced on a wet track, and forecasters are calling for some
precipitation the morning of the Belmont.
BETTING VALUE: He will be a long price but is one to consider
for at least underneath in the exotics. Heart of Honor could be picking off rivals in the lane as a runner who might relish the distance.
SIRE: Much has been expected, both on the track and at stud, for
Honor A. P., who is from the first crop of A.P. Indy’s champion son
Honor Code and out of Grade 1 winner Hollywood Story. Honor A. P.
won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and was fourth in the pandemic-
delayed 2020 Kentucky Derby, perhaps still maturing when injury
ended his career. He is the sire of stakes-winning 2-year-olds Glee
and Hollywood Beauty. Heart of Honor has emerged with multiple
group stakes-placings this winter in Dubai.
DAM: Chilean-born Ruby Love was a champion juvenile in her
home country as a Group 1 winner at a mile. Heart of Honor is her
first winner from two starters. Her dam, Rogue, was an eight-time
winner from ages 3 to 5, at up to 1 1/16 miles. Second dam Vous
was a Grade 3-placed stakes winner on turf who won at up to 1 1/16
miles.
OUTLOOK: Heart of Honor has been a later-developing runner,
perhaps in the mold of his sire, suggesting he still has room to grow,
particularly as he becomes more accustomed to American starting
gate procedures and other nuances. The stamina-laden A.P. Indy
line, responsible for several Belmont winners, including through
kingpin sire Tapit, will need to balance out a female family that
appears firmly planted in middle distances.
Sovereignty
Journalism
Baeza
Heart of Honor
Journalism
Sovereignty
Baeza
Rodriquez
Sovereignty
Baeza
Rodriguez
Journalism
Journalism
Sovereignty
Baeza
Rodriguez
Rodriguez
Sovereignty
Journalism
Baeza
Baeza
Journalism
Sovereignty
Rodriguez
Journalism
Baeza
Sovereignty
Hill Road
Journalism
Baeza
Sovereignty
Hill Road
Baeza
Journalism
Sovereignty
Hill Road
Journalism
Sovereignty
Baeza
Rodriguez
Journalism
Sovereignty
Baeza
Rodriguez
Rodriguez
Sovereignty
Baeza
Journalism
Baeza
Journalism
Sovereignty
Hill Road
Journalism
Rodriguez
Baeza
Sovereignty
Journalism 55
Baeza 46
Sovereignty 37
Rodriguez 14
I hesitate to suggest that BAEZA was
an unlucky loser in the Kentucky Derby,
but his journey was not quite as charmed
as that of the winner. The outside draw
allowed him the freedom to avoid early
traffic jams, but also forced him to lose ground around the first
bend. Cognizant of that disadvantage, Flavien Prat made the
decision to be patient on the final turn. While Journalism and
Sovereignty were gearing up for wide rallies, Baeza waited in traffic, looking to gain ground by cutting the corner at the quarter
pole. The plan didn’t quite pan out as Baeza was forced to briefly
steady in traffic as the leaders retreated into his path. Prat quickly
adjusted, wheeling him back outside to commence his stretch
rally, but that slight loss of momentum proved costly. Baeza was
finishing fastest of all through the final furlong and seemingly
crossed the wire with some energy in reserve.
This John Shirreffs trainee has been learning and improving
from each experience, and his preparation for this ultimate showdown has been deliberate. Of the main three, Baeza is the one who
seems primed to deliver his ultimate effort Saturday.
In many ways, JOURNALISM had the tougher trip in the
Derby. He got bounced around at the start and jostled a few times
through the opening furlongs. Things smoothed out from there,
but he still deserves credit for making the first serious move into
a pace that ultimately fell apart. As for the Preakness, we didn’t
learn much that we didn’t already know about Journalism’s ability. Yet we did gain a deeper understanding of his character as he
displayed the kind of determination and bravery that is a hallmark
of true champions. The problem with all of this, from a wagering
standpoint, is that this profound appreciation for Journalism will
be baked into his price. I believe Journalism is the most likely
winner, but I nevertheless have some reservations about accepting too short a price given the rigorous schedule he’s taken on.
Luck clearly plays a significant role in Kentucky Derby success,
and the connections of SOVEREIGNTY couldn’t have dreamed
of a better setup in Louisville. Not only was he in the perfect spot
relative to a frenetic early pace, but Junior Alvarado managed to
essentially isolate him from traffic. It also helped that Journalism’s early move provided ideal cover, towing Sovereignty into
a winning position. Even if Sovereignty repeats that effort, he is
unlikely to be quite as fortunate here.
Late-running HILL ROAD has improved with each U.S. start,
but his best hope appears to be a minor award given the strength
of the three favorites.
BAEZA
JOURNALISM
SOVEREIGNTY
RODRIGUEZ
BAEZA proved he could compete at
the top of this division when giving Journalism a battle in the Santa Anita Derby
despite a subtly tough trip, and he did so
right off a maiden victory where his inexperience was readily apparent. His Derby
effort represented another forward move as he finished strongly
to gain ground late after catching some traffic and losing position
around the final turn. He is bred to go on for a top trainer and owns
the tactical speed to get the jump on his main rivals this time.
SOVEREIGNTY flashed the requisite potential as a 2-year-old,
and he was trained to peak on Derby Day while backing off a bit
following an impressive win in his seasonal debut. Trips rarely
get better than the one he pulled in Kentucky, particularly in a
19-horse field, but he won that race fair and square after clocking his main rival throughout, and he now has the advantage
of coming into the Belmont as a fresh horse after skipping the
roughly run Preakness.
JOURNALISM ran his race as the favorite in the Derby but was
second best to Sovereignty. He pressed on to the Preakness, where
he overcame real trouble to post a remarkable win, though that
was a much weaker field than this one. He still has plenty going for
him, and his chances must be taken seriously once again.
CRUDO was a late addition to the field. He has flashed talent
while winning his two most recent starts impressively on the lead,
though he is wading into much deeper waters now.
BAEZA
SOVEREIGNTY
JOURNALISM
CRUDO
BAEZA ran super to finish third in the
Kentucky Derby after he got stalled in
traffic at the top of the stretch. When he
finally found a path, he finished well for
third, only a neck behind the runner-up.
Baeza has more speed than he produced
in the big-field Derby, and he could be more forwardly placed in
the Belmont. With five weeks between starts, the improving colt
is likely to produce the best performance of his career in the
Belmont. It could be enough to post an upset.
JOURNALISM might be the best 3-year-old in the country.
It is a matter of opinion. What is not a debate is his ambitious
campaign, as Journalism is the only horse this year to contest
all three legs of the Triple Crown. Kentucky Derby runner-up
two back, he appeared to come off the bit on the far turn of the
Preakness, then got going again and bulldozed to victory with an
impressive late rally. If he strings together his third top effort in a
tight five-week window, he can win again. But his momentary lack
of interest on the far turn of the Preakness was curious.
RODRIGUEZ is one of only two front-runners in the Belmont
and the only front-runner with graded stakes credentials. Winner
of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial in his most recent start two months
ago, he scratched from the Kentucky Derby with a foot issue but
trained regularly during his break and posted an impressive solo
drill last week at Santa Anita. Rodriguez could upset the Belmont
with an up-front trip, depending on the amount of pace pressure
he receives from longshot Crudo.
SOVEREIGNTY had advantageous conditions in the Kentucky
Derby and was good enough to exploit the circumstances and
spring the upset. A Churchill Downs horse for the course, his
Derby trip was clean and his closing rally was flattered by the
contested pace. He may not get the same setup in the Belmont,
and the small-field race may unfold more slowly than the Derby.
Sovereignty is a top colt, but he is facing different circumstances
this time.
Hill Road won Grade 2 Peter Pan at nine furlongs last out and
should relish a mile and a quarter. He was among the division
leaders last year when he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. A fresh face to the Triple Crown, he enters as a live longshot. Heart of Honor, fifth in the Preakness after a slow start, seems a
notch below. Crudo falls short on speed and class, but he will keep
Rodriguez honest. Uncaged finished next to last in his most recent
start.
BAEZA
JOURNALISM
RODRIGUEZ
SOVEREIGNTY
Boy, did I have a stupid opinion in the
Preakness. I picked against JOURNAL-
ISM, who nearly brought into reality the
saying, “He could have fallen down part-
way through and still won.” Journalism’s
fast, he’s brave, and all that love he gets
from seasoned horse-watchers regarding physical appearance
and presence is not misguided. Journalism would prove a wholly
worthy Belmont winner. I just don’t think that’s happening. No
doubt, Journalism got pushed around through the Derby’s first
furlong, but how much did that hurt him? By the first turn, Jour-
nalism had found a great spot saving ground and had settled into
a comfortable stride, and for the Derby’s last 1 1/16 miles, he had a
perfect trip, going his half-mile in roughly 48 seconds and getting
out when he needed to. He just got run down.
Clearly, BAEZA had the worst Derby journey among the top
three finishers. Flavien Prat told Daily Racing Form’s David Gren-
ing that Baeza couldn’t keep up with Journalism and Sovereignty
when they moved past him on the far turn. That’s not what it
looked like. Baeza couldn’t get outside to try and match strides.
Instead, he was forced down toward the rail and got stuck in traf-
fic while his main rivals churned cleanly into the homestretch. He
ran a great race, especially for an inexperienced colt. Were this
a 1 1/2-mile Belmont at Belmont Park, I might take him to win.
But Baeza still seems to have little quirks, slight greenness, and
things to learn. His strong run Saturday falls short.
SOVEREIGNTY, at worst, will run back to his Derby. He stands
a decent chance of surpassing it. Baeza has traveled to his second
new place this spring. Journalism makes his third stop on unfa-
miliar ground. Saratoga is home to Sovereignty. He did all his
early training here and debuted here. Sometimes trainer Bill Mott
sends him over to the main track to train, and sometimes he walks
out of Mott’s barn right onto the Oklahoma training track. This
is his house. So, home-court advantage, freshness advantage, a
better race when they met five weeks ago, and, quite possibly, the
same trip as in the Derby, with Sovereignty getting onto Journal-
ism’s back on the far turn. All that at the longer price of the two.
Sounds like a gamble.
HILL ROAD, unless he’s hiding something, can’t hang with the
top three. He does stay, though, and has a notch of improvement
from his Peter Pan in him here. Fourth best.
Rodriguez holds no appeal, even on a loose lead. A quarter crack
took him out of the Derby. The trainer said he’d be ready for the
Preakness. He wasn’t. It’s hard to win races like this under the
best of circumstances. And Rodriguez probably isn’t getting loose.
SOVEREIGNTY
BAEZA
JOURNALISM
HILL ROAD
I came to town convinced JOURNAL-
ISM had to regress some off those gruel-
ing efforts in the Derby and Preakness,
especially after getting knocked around
the way he did before recovering and
putting in a yeoman effort to run down
the seemingly long gone and home-free Gosger in the middle leg
of the Triple Crown. But any lingering doubts about whether he
would be able to maintain his brilliant form coming back one
more time in the Belmont were erased after watching the imposing youngster both train and breeze since arriving locally, where
he’s given the impression that he’s doing every bit as well coming
up to this test as he was when training in such eye-catching fashion in Louisville prior to the Derby. Trainer Michael McCarthy
wasted very little time giving Journalism the green light after
watching him work so impressively over this track earlier in the
week.
SOVEREIGNTY benefited from a perfect trip to defeat Journal-
ism and Baeza in the Derby, though he has done little to indicate
he will not replicate or perhaps even step forward off that performance while also having somewhat of a home-court advantage in
the rematch. He obviously won’t offer anywhere near the incred-
ible value he provided his supporters on Derby Day, but he is
certainly hard to side against with any real confidence, no matter
the price, in his current form.
BAEZA undoubtedly had the toughest trip of the Big 3 in their
previous encounter and will likely be a bit overbet here as a result.
Certainly, he’s a horse whose form continues to progress in the
right direction, with each Beyer Speed Figure better than the
preceding one. But he still appears a bit on the green side and
perhaps a race or two away from catching up to either of the top
pair.
CRUDO and Rodriguez must obviously avoid a potential pace
duel if they stand a chance to still be around at the end. Even loose
on the lead, neither appear to be in the same league as the three
favorites. I did like the way Crudo was able to rate off and run away
late from his stakes-winning workmate in a drill that impressed
his trainer, Todd Pletcher, enough to make him a last-minute and
intriguing addition to the field. He’s relatively inexperienced but
with perhaps enough upside to prove best of all the other outsiders
in this lineup.
JOURNALISM
SOVEREIGNTY
BAEZA
CRUDO