Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Majestic Moonlight should improve with switch to turf

Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 3:16 p.m. (ET)

While she hasn't posed a significant threat in any of her three prior starts, the company that Academia (#1) has kept probably makes her the horse to beat. She chased home Grade 1 Spinaway winner Tommy Jo last summer, and then in her turf debut found herself in against Lion Lake, who returned to win the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream. She didn't show much improvement in that initial turf attempt, but she also ran a strange race, getting outrun on the far turn before staying on belatedly in the final furlong. She may do better here, but I didn't expect her to offer value given those company lines and Chad Brown's name attached to her past performances.

I actually prefer Brown's other runner Tax Holiday (#4), who didn't run nearly as poorly as it might seem in her Tampa debut. She was getting a good trip inside before she got completely shuffled out of the race rounding the far turn. I wish she had recovered a bit better when she got clearly in the lane, but the trouble she experienced on the turn was a valid excuse. She had been bet down to favoritism that day and is likely to fare much better here as long as she gets a clean trip.

The horse I would rather bet is Majestic Moonlight (#5), who gets on turf for the first time. She doesn't have that much obvious turf breeding, but she trains like a horse who can improve with the surface switch. She faced a very tough field in her dirt debut down at Gulfstream and just never seemed comfortable while outrun over that course. Since then she has worked very well on turf at Palm Meadows, including a quick Feb. 8 drill where she was much the best against a couple of decent workmates. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Jorge Abreu is 4 for 17 (24%, $7.21 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time over the last 5 years.