Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: A Little At First returns with upside

Belmont at the Big A | Race 9 | Post Time 5:11 p.m. (ET)

Inspeightofcharlie (#1) is probably the horse to beat as he returns to New York as an improved 4-year-old. This gelding showed some potential when he got on turf against statebreds last year, but the trips didn't always work out. He obviously progressed down in Florida this winter, culminating with a professional victory once he was put back on turf last time. He did get a great trip that day, but if he comes close to repeating that 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure he will probably prove too tough for this field to handle.

The main rivals are 3-year-olds who probably have a little more upside, but all require some improvement. Jack's World (#9) was a work in progress when he began his career at Saratoga last summer, but I liked the way he developed in subsequent turf starts. He got a wide trip on Nov. 8 and then put it all together when last seen breaking his maiden. Linda Rice doesn't have the best statistics off layoffs, but it would hardly be a surprise if he moved forward again.

I'm more intrigued by the two horses for Horacio De Paz, both of which are also 3-year-olds returning from layoffs. Tim and Sam (#7) hasn't displayed the brilliance of some others in this field and got a perfect trip when he broke his maiden two back. Yet he was compromised by a poor start in the Notebook last time and appears to be working forwardly for his return.

My top pick is A Little At First (#5), who put in a nice late run sprinting on debut before stretching out. He ran well closing belatedly after a rough beginning and wide trip in October before everything came together for his maiden score in November. I liked the way he was able to sit closer to the early pace that day and still produce his strong finishing kick. Horacio De Paz is 13 for 63 (21%, $2.59 ROI) off 150- to 300-day layoffs on turf over the last 5 years.