Splendora can't be doing any better coming into Locust Grove

This new, halting age of publicly available workout video has, at least to a minor extent, raised the curtain on activity heretofore witnessed only by backstretch denizens and dedicated professional clockers.

In the past, one would have seen a series of bullet workouts attached to the past performance lines of the mare Splendora and guessed she would not prove a vulnerable odds-on favorite in the Locust Grove Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Now, we have visual confirmation of it.

On Aug. 24, Splendora goes a half-mile in 47.80 seconds. Looks like she is barely trying. Good gallop-out, though not asked for a lot by her rider.

And then Sept. 6, the real nail in the heart of potential skepticism: Splendora whips through a half-mile in a robust 46.80, flying smoothly around the far turn, turning in a fast drill despite her rider keeping her far from the rail in the homestretch.

Splendora is breezing like the splendid horse she has become and will take no end of beating in the Grade 2, $400,000 Locust Grove.

She faces no more than four rivals: Simply Joking will be scratched from the Locust Grove and run in the Princess Rooney at Gulfstream Park, trainer Michael McCarthy said.

Only Immersive comes even within remote hailing distance of Splendora’s league, and Splendora beat Immersive by almost three lengths in the Shawnee Stakes 3 1/2 months ago at Churchill.

What could get Splendora beat? Not participating. Bob Baffert, who trains Splendora, scratched her from the Fleur de Lis on June 27 after the track came up sloppy, and if Baffert did not want to run Splendora on a wet Churchill track then, perhaps he won’t now, either.

Forecasts call for a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.

Baffert did run Splendora on a fast, sealed surface (a highly unusual designation) on July 18 at Monmouth Park, and Splendora dominated the Molly Pitcher Stakes, winning by more than five lengths at odds of 3-10.

Splendora and Flavien Prat have the rail Saturday, and with those fast works sharpening her edge, the speed to make a clear lead and, once again, dominate. The real question for Splendora comes later this fall, when connections must decide whether to bid for a repeat win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint or try Splendora over 1 1/8 miles in the Distaff.

Immersive, Luis Saez riding for trainer Brad Cox, already is a Breeders’ Cup winner; her easy victory in the 2024 Juvenile Fillies capped a four-win season that included three Grade 1s and easily made her champion 2-year-old filly. Immersive has not come close to that level in just six races since the Juvenile Fillies and lost her lone Grade 1 start by more than 15 lengths. In Splendora’s absence, she did knock out a Grade 2 in the Fleur de Lis, a race that Cox, in the immediate aftermath, said would set Immersive up for a return to Grade 1 competition at Saratoga.

But Immersive never left Churchill. She stands a much better chance at an upset than her stablemate Yes It Tiz or the other two entrants, Miss Authentic and Chilled, and Immersive has breezed steadily for this. Working nearly as well as Splendora? Hardly seems possible from the evidence we have on video.