Mike Beer's 2019 Kentucky Derby analysis

IMPROBABLE may not be entering this year’s Derby the way his connections had been hoping for, having finished second in both preps. But he did not run poorly in either of those races, and there is a way to look at him as a horse set to break though Saturday, even as he takes on a distance that may push his limits more than it does some of his main rivals. After clearly establishing himself as one of the top horses in this crop last year, Improbable was given an overconfident ride when four wide around the track in the Rebel, which left him vulnerable late to a perfectly ridden Long Range Toddy. His second prep came over a sloppy track in the Arkansas Derby, and he gave away early position in an effort to get off the inside before chasing likely Derby favorite Omaha Beach through the stretch and not giving an inch to the wire. He may wind up being the least-fancied of the Baffert trio on Saturday, which should make him a playable price.

TACITUS doesn’t have the flash about him that some of these other 3-year-olds do, but he has been all racehorse from Day 1 and is apparently without distance limitations. He won the Wood, which didn’t have the strongest field in the world on paper, but there was a fast pace and Tacitus never let the leaders get out of range. This, even after getting sideswiped out of the gate and then being bothered again into the first turn before closing strongly. He is capable of pulling the right trip in this Derby and will be running late.

GAME WINNER was better than these horses while undefeated as a juvenile, but he hasn’t made a forward move this year and his rivals have caught up to him. He is another who would seem to relish this distance, and while I thought he hung finishing second in the Rebel off the layoff, he did not get a great trip running second in the Santa Anita Derby last time. This was the goal all along, and he is dangerous from off the pace.

Of those that really need to improve to factor on Saturday, SPINOFF intrigues based on his two starts so far as a 3-year-old. He attended a fast pace and won as he pleased against inferior competition at Tampa, and he was wider than By My Standards in the Louisiana Derby. He is more likely a horse to keep an eye on down the road, but he has talent.