Hogan: How I'd play Del Mar for Thursday, Sept. 3
Race 7: #8 MR. SEXY is 10-1 on the morning line, and he could prove the key to my day. He’s facing a field full of runners that may want to go farther than five furlongs (such as the second choice, #3 BOOZER) or may be better on dirt (#2 TURNOVER). #4 CITY OF VENGEANCE (6-1 ML) could be a player if he improves in his first start off the claim for John Sadler. The stat line at the bottom of the PPs shows Sadler as a 24 percent winner first off the claim since the start of last year, but digging into DRF Formulator, you see Sadler is only 1 for 18 over the past five years in turf sprints off the claim, with only three others that hit the board. #6 TIZCANO (3-1) is logical if he repeats that last race, but he looms a short price and he hasn’t been able to string together two consecutive good efforts.
So that leaves us with MR. SEXY who may be even higher than his 10-1 morning line odds. After all, his trainer George Papaprodromou is only 5 for 108 with all runners in 2015, and Mr. Sexy himself is making his 2015 debut following an eight-month layoff. Now the good news: The only other time he sprinted on this Del Mar turf course, he won for fun last July at odds of 53-1, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 97. And it’s not as though he beat a nothing field that day, as third-place finisher Betty’s Bambino later ran off four straight wins down the hill at Santa Anita, including the Grade 3 Daytona. Following that race, Mr. Sexy was off the board in each of his next five starts, but he ran well in most of them, considering four of them were stakes (two graded) and none were at this five-furlong trip on turf. The eight-month layoff is a concern, especially noting that Papaprodromou is only 1 for 17 over the past five years with runners coming off layoffs of 180 days or more, but that one winner was this hose in that Del Mar race last summer. Mr. Sexy seems to be working solidly leading up to this race, accentuated by a five-furlong work of 59.20 seconds on Aug. 15, third best of 89 that day.
Perhaps the surest sign that Papaprodromou thinks he’s ready to run big is that Joe Talamo takes the mount on Mr. Sexy.. In the past year, Papadrodromou has had 13 winners from 191 starters (7 percent win, $0.93 return on investment), but five of those winners came with Talamo aboard. Together, those two have won 5 of 18 in the past year, for a strong $3.15 ROI, , and it’s not as though they are winning only on a couple runners, as this image from Formulator shows, Papaprodromou’s record in the past years with jocks other than Talamo aboard, on the other hand, is 8 for 173. That’s less that 5 percent, and the ROI for those runners is only $0.70.
Let’s bet him to win (assuming he’s a square price), and key him as a lone A in the pick four:
:: See Mike Hogan’s pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets