Hogan: How I'd play Del Mar for Thursday, Aug. 13

Race 3
A maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies going one mile on turf, the third race has a full field. Only one filly in the body of the race has run on grass before, and she’s also the only one to go long as well, but I am way against #8 JOAN OF ARCH in here. Although she finished second in her turf race, someone had to run second. She finished ahead of four fillies that have raced since; all raced next in maiden-claiming company and all four were out of the money. So I’ll look to one in here trying the surface and distance for the first time, using pedigree and trainer stats to project forward improvement.

From a pedigree standpoint, #7 COVER SONG (8-1 ML) is the one in this field screaming out for a turf route. She debuted in a six-furlong sprint on dirt at 21-1 on July 26th at Del Mar, and she ran to her odds as she finished 7th in a field of nine. The surface switch and stretchout should suit her, though, considering since she is the first foal from a mare that was a multiple Group 1 winner in Europe and ran a close third in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Filly-Mare Turf for Aidan O’Brien. This filly cost $450,000 at Keeneland last September, and trainer Carla Gaines gives the call to jockey Mike Smith, who is 4 for 8 with Gaines on turf over the past year.

#9 IMFLATOUTSWEET (5-2 ML favorite) is another that should appreciate two turns on the grass, as she’s the first foal from a mare that won the Grade 3 Miesque Stakes. While it’s not his strong suit, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer can win on grass with juveniles, but they rarely outrun their odds, so watch the tote board. I’ll use both of those fillies in exactas, trifectas, and Pick 3s with #5 STRAIGHT N STRONG (3-1 ML), who has little in her pedigree to hint that she wants grass or to route, but she could be alone on the lead and trainer Phil D’Amato is lethal with turf runners.

Race 6
Peter Eurton doesn’t win with many first-time starters. That’s okay; it’s not really his style to have them cranked for their debut like, say, Bob Baffert does. So when #1 SOONER TIME won easily for Eurton at first asking, it seems that he might have a nice filly on his hands. Over the past five years, he’s had just five other first-out winners (from 113 horses). All five hit the board in their second career start, and three of those five became graded stakes winners. Her connections thought enough of her off that debut win to enter her in the Grade 2 Sorrento on Wednesday, but she’ll scratch from there to run here. A graded stakes at this point may be a tad ambitious for Sooner Time, but a victory in this optional claimer seems likely. She’s the 5-2 morning line favorite, and could be in danger of being an even shorter price, so I’ll try to create value by singling her in all multi-race wagers.

Race 7
A wide-open state-bred allowance on the turf, this race has nine colts and geldings, and none of them seem destined for future stardom. The morning line 5-2 favorite is #8 UNUSUALLY GREEN, who regularly runs a good race that just isn’t quite good enough, having lost his last seven races, five at odds of 9-2 or lower. He seems logical for underneath, but I’ll try to beat him on top in the trifectas and supers, mostly using #2 TIZ FUTURITY (5-1 ML). Now relying on 2-for-45 horses to win is generally not a wise idea, but Tiz Futurity is in improving form, has been running the best races of his career since he started routing on turf, and was flying late to get third last race after getting shuffled back to last before the second turn. Trainer Michael Pender has a strong 29-7-5-6 record in turf routes at Del Mar over the past five years for a very juicy $3.42 ROI, and I view the jockey switch to Kent Desormeaux here as a positive sign. Other logical contenders are #6 RAINBOW NORTH (3-1 ML) and #9 TEMPLE KEYS (4-1 ML), but poor trainer stats for each will limit my use of them to just underneath, considering that both promise to be short prices. Dan Hendricks trains Rainbow North and he’s just 28-1-2-5, $0.40 ROI, over the past five years in turf routes at Del Mar. Trainer Tom Proctor and jockey Drayden Van Dyke team up on Temple Keys, and they’re only 71-3-12-11, $0.35 ROI, together in turf routes in Southern California.

I’ll key Tiz Futurity over those three in the trifecta and super, and play him with them in the exacta as well, assuming the probable pays seem fair. Also, if he floats up from the morning line odds, I’ll play him to win at 6-1 or higher.