Hogan: Del Mar pick three play for Thursday, Aug. 27

Races 3 through 5 offer a good mix of horses I like and favorites I think are vulnerable, so I’ll put together a pick 3 starting in the third race. These races also play in the pick 5 and early pick 4, so feel free to dabble in those bets, if you have opinions in the first two races.

Race 3: The morning-line favorite and second choice are both going turf to dirt, and I think both are better horses on turf, so I’ll be trying to beat both of them. #1 SINFULLY (2-1 ML) was claimed two back for $20,000 by trainer Peter Miller, who promptly gelded him and moved him to turf. That race was a disaster, as he never looked comfortable at all, and he finished 13 lengths behind the horse that finished second to last. Following that race he posted a slow work, and Miller moves him back to dirt. Miller, however, is 0 for 8 over the past five years going turf to dirt in the second start following a claim, and every one of those horses was 5-1 or lower. I’ll let this one beat me at a short price, especially considering he’s winless on dirt. I’ll let #3 CITY STATE beat me as well. He was claimed last start off a decent third on turf, and new trainer Mike Puype moves him back to dirt, where he’s winless going two turns, plus Puype is 4-0-0-0 going turf to dirt off the claim with all four runners at 7-1 or less. Those two will be off the ticket, and the five others will all be used in some A/B/C form, but I’ll be sure to check the changes, as I don’t want to scratch into these favorites that I’m playing against.

Race 4: Is it a drop in class when every horse is dropping in class? That’s the question in race four, a $40,000 open claimer turf sprint for fillies and mares. Every horse in the body of the race is coming out of an allowance race, an optional claimer, a starter allowance, or a stakes race, and all of them finished out of the money except #7 SWEET PROFIT. She’s a player in here, as is #4 MARK OF A GEM, who is getting arguably the most class relief and could be the speed of the speed. Both are A plays and could be worth win bets if either happens to be overlooked in the wagering.

Race 5: I really like #1 BIG FINISH (5-1 ML), who could have a pace advantage over this field while breaking from the rail, plus he drops into a maiden claimer after facing tougher in his first two starts. He’s the first foal from a dam who was winless in two starts, but she is kin to a couple minor stakes winners and her dam was a Grade 1 winner for D. Wayne Lukas. He’s an A for me, and I’ll also use #5 AUTUMN BLITZ, who ran a couple good races up north and #7 HANK THE TANK, a first-time starter for Peter Miller, who has strong numbers debuting juveniles for a tag, especially at Del Mar (10 for 25, $4.04 ROI past five years).

The pick 3 play ($49 total)
Race 3: A: 2,6 B: 5 C: 4,7
Race 4: A: 4,7 B: 5,6 C: 8
Race 5: A: 1 B: 5,7

Click here to play this pick 5

Good luck!