Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Wednesday 12/23

2020 Statistics (through Nov. 15 – 86 days)
Top Selections – Overall:
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%) ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10 - $2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 3,4/2,7/2,4,5,7/3,4 ($16)
Best Bet: Springbridge Proud (Race 1)
Spot Play: Misty Memory N (Race 7)

Race 1 - Claiming $10,000

6 - SPRINGBRIDGE PROUD sustained pressing, stalking and deep closing bids to win his last three at this level. While there's not as much early speed on paper in this race, it's worth noting he's overcome slower-than-typical early paces to win his last couple. As strong as any. 1 - ONLYTHETUFFSURVIVE pressed steadily into a head-stretch lead before being engulfed in his last, and he reached narrowly from the pocket at tens at this level three back. Pole gives Bongiorno tactical options galore. 4 - LYONS AMUSEMENTS can benefit from the addition of Napolitano after even but non-threatening efforts at large odds in his last couple. Minor player in like fields only needs little more oomph to hit the ticket.

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Race 2 - F&M Claiming $10,000-$12,500

8 - CHECK MACH reached from the pocket at Yonkers last week and has hit the board in three of four. Wide draw is her big hurdle; last week's race can serve to keep her sharp. 3 - J ROCKIN B invades from M1 after an even chasing effort last out. She's amply fast; gains Gingras. 2 - ENGLISH ROSE N never got involved from astern last time, but kept in touch with the field throughout. Her pressing and stalking efforts to win and just miss in November encourage. Mind value, though.

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Race 3 - Claiming $10,000

3 - HERE COMES SWIFTY either won or rallied for second in all of his last three tries at the $10k level. Inside draw, a race last Friday, and his raw speed edge all contribute to him getting the nod from me. 1 - REASONABLE FORCE lacked kick from the pocket in his last, but proved a minor player in $12.5k events at Yonkers after a game effort at this course and class on Nov. 11. Pole keeps him close to the action again. 7 - SPICEBOMB has turned a significant corner for Garcia, and his pressing efforts to hit the exacta in two tries at this level encourage. He has every reason to figure well again, but be mindful of value.

Race 4 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - JOE'S SIGN was a two-move winner at this level on Nov. 18, and a beaten second after clearing from post 7 and setting a stern pace more recently. Post relief can sharpen her up; top-two finishes in four of six prove ability. 1 - WINNING WORDS lifted out of the pocket to just miss last week. Don't discount her one-paced effort two back, as she had a much tougher pace to chase through the early stages. 7 - SURE R LOOKIN GOOD is a convincing value option in this field, given her proven ability to withstand pressure and to close from astern, as demonstrated in her last two starts. Recent form uptick noted. Gains Simon.

Race 5 - Claiming $10,000

5 - SWEET TALKIN SATIN broke at The Meadows on debut for Good, but reeled off four wins in five $10k tries for Garcia before that. The veteran returns to the place of his recent success. 2 - SUCHASENSEOFHUMOR improved to hit the board in his last two after failing to fire from astern three back. Draw is favourable. 3 - COUGAR HALL was stymied by back-to-back post 8 draws, yet did demonstrate closing ability to only miss by two lengths two back. Relief can aid.

Race 6 - F&M Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

2 - TOPVILLE ANGELINA had every excuse to weaken in the stretch on the rise to this level last week: she pushed hard to clear from post 7 and then was subjected to sustained pressure through the far turn. Six of her foes step up in class this time. Post relief is a sure aid. 4 - GINGER TREE CAREY is the only other distaffer to not move up in class in this field, and in fact steps down following a fourth-place finish against tougher N5L types. Credit her pressing bid to take second in the same race Topville Angelina exits. 6 - D GS ELSA hit the board in five of seven, including a string of minor success at this level and above earlier in the fall. Expect her to be on or near the lead. Joe's choice.

Race 7 - F&M Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts, 5 Races or $50,500

4 - SHE'S NUN BETTOR N cleared, yielded, and reached in the last yards for a second N5L win in four such tries when she last raced two weeks ago. Her form is as strong as any in this group; expect her to land on or near the lead with almost no trouble. 3 - MISTY MEMORY N stepped up to this level on Dec. 2, and showed improved closing ability in her second such start. She's still at her best on the lead; form uptick is catching up with her class advancement. 2 - THE CHARGING MOA N drops from high-level races at Yonkers after simply failing to get involved in recent tries. Gains Napolitano and a much kinder draw.

Race 8 - F&M Non-Winners $14,000 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

2 - NEW YEAR failed to convert at odds-on in her last two tries, but worked hard on both occasions to hit the board amid similar competition. Returns from Yonkers; pole can aid this royally-bred, cleverly-named, stakes-tested filly. 7 - CRAZY CUTE hit the board in her last five at this level, all via a wide variety of trips. She can absorb or deliver pressure, and she can lift off a helmet, too. Wide draw is her main obstacle today. 1 - MONICA GALLAGHER seeks a third straight win after she edged clear of just easier at Yonkers. Returns south for her new connections; gains Gingras. Versatility noted, as is her recent form uptick.

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Race 9 - F&M Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - FIREFLY has tailed off some since October, but was still even for a minor in N5L competition two weeks ago. Far easier await. 4 - SWEETER LULU rises after a strong bottom-level win. Before that, she lifted mildly for minors. Week-over-week improvement noted; gains Gingras. 2 - OOH REAL GOOD rallied into second in her last two starts. No particularly strong closers stand out in this group, so it's conceivable that this mare - more a grinder - could be the best finisher despite an 0-for-15 seasonal record.

Race 10 - F&M Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts, 5 Races or $50,500

3 - ROSE RUN VICTORIA fits via the N5L provision despite having out-earned all but two of her rivals. The Ontario standout did her best work from off the pace in late-season Gold events, but she proved she can set the terms too in her return outing two weeks ago. Expect a little sharper from her in this slightly kinder mixed group. 4 - DARKRSHADEOFPALE N closed well off cover to just miss two weeks ago. Before that, traffic trouble and wide draws hindered her earning ability. Solid value player if able to work out a similar trip. 1 - MOANING LISA delivered pressure to Rose Run Victoria on the far turn last week, and held third after levelling off. All things considered, it was a credible effort on the rise out of N3L company. Pole keeps her close with ease.

Race 11 - Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - LIGHT BLUE MOVERS added hopples for his last after struggling from gait issues, and he turned in a 1:55 1/5 mile over M1. That kind of performance lays over these. 7 - KEEPTHETAB HANOVER hit the board in 10 of 13 this year, including his last five against older company. Gradual improvement is apparent, as is his improving ability to sustain wide bids. 5 - SIMON GOT LUCKY broke last out, but lifted into top-three finishes in all his starts before that. Can rebound for a share, and even at a decent price.

Race 12 - F&M Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - INFINITE SYMBOL A improved at the end of her last two miles, and even overcame road trouble to narrowly miss in her last. Further relief awaits; plenty to like. 6 - WINDFALL PROFITS used a :26 3/5 third quarter to push clear in her last, only to give way off the home turn. Credit her work in the fastest part of the mile. 2 - KG ROCKS flattened at Rosecroft in her last after a failed pressing bid two back. Debuts for Crissman; draws cosily.

Race 13 - F&M Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

5 - ROLL WITH AMY passed tired foes late last out after a failed pressing bid and some fairly good closing efforts off Cover. Easier await; raw speed edge noted. 1 - UPTOWN CALLIE was just better than even at hefty odds in her local debut two weeks ago. Gains the pole in this manageable group. 2 - ARTISTIC SPIRIT improved from astern to take fourth last out after a clunker two back. Inside draw can land her closer to the action.

Race 14 - F&M Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - ROLLING GOING GONE drops in class after a stout closing push two back and a three-wide blitz to a brief lead since. A couple of her rivals make a similar step down, but she's got the form edge. 1 - HOTTIEONTHEHORIZON was torched from post 8 last time out after a pocket win at this level two back. How will she fare on 20 days' rest? 2 - PONDER THE ODDS almost lasted a level above this one on Nov. 25, but has been out of action since. Class and post relief noted; mind value.