Harrah's Philadelphia: Analysis for Thursday 12/17

2020 Statistics (through Nov. 15 – 86 days)
Top Selections – Overall:
Win %: 450 for 1,194 (37.7%) ITM: 847 for 1,194 (70.9%)
Win Dividends: $1,988.10 - $2 ROI: $1.67
Pick-4: 3,4,7 / 3,7 / 1,3 / 2,3,4 ($18)
Best Bet: Hall It Off (Race 9)
Spot Play: Reciprocalbluechip (Race 12)

Race 1 - Non-Winners $4,000 Last 5 Starts

8 - BIG SMOOVE makes his second start on Lasix and drops mightily from N5L company. He just missed from an earned pocket two back at healthy odds, and he stayed on fairly well in lower conditioned events at Aces this summer. Healthy roughie chance in a field comprised of trotters who've fared their best one level below this. 2 - WAYWARD MAN was second twice in his last three at this level, and can land a similar stalking trip by way of this kind inside draw. 5 - SWANIND FASTLANE won convincingly last Thursday, but struggled from astern at this level the start before. McCarthy does opt to stay on; be mindful of value.

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Race 2 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - I AM THE STORM has improved notably across his last pair and makes an attractive key to the early double with plenty of proven tactical speed. Has long-term experience in the class, yet the recent uptick is markedly strong. Looks ready to start advancement. 1 - WINNIE THE GOO has flashed powerful moments across her young career and won her most recent locally as near favourite. Another candidate to leap up the ranks. Every chance. 6 - PROTOSTAR has perked up smartly since local arrival. Fits right in.

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Race 3 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

6 - OPTIMIST BLUE CHIP drops back to his last winning level after making amends from a break on Dec. 3 in his most recent outing. He chased tougher foes well for third behind a tough pair in MacMorris Hanover and Pappy Go Go. 5 - MARION GONDOLIER missed last week due to transport, but raced well to save third at big odds against tougher in his last after clearing from post 8 and being shuffled up the far side. Easier await this time. 1 - BATTLE MAGE was too far away to threaten in her last two, but fared better when near the action three and four back. Pole keeps her closer with ease.

Race 4 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

6 - PRESIDENT may only be 1-for-20 on the year, but he's working well into his own of late. He closed boldly from astern for second at 38-1 behind the tough Context last week, and sustained his pursuit well for a similar result the start before. Gains Anthony Napolitano. Prime price play. 3 - SWEET HEART AS beat similar in her second start back by way of a late push to reach in the last yards. Gait issues from the fall still give mild pause; demand value. 7 - BANG BANG BOINGA hit the board in his last six, including twice at this level at double-digit odds. Miller's choice over two others can yield exceptional value yet again.

Race 5 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

4 - TROLLER made a fine impression at longer odds last week, nearly winning the contest. A second start today against similar rivals seriously appeals. May price drift. 7 - RENTIER was a fair bit better last week in dropping to this level. Post challenges, but can overcome if early speed excesses occur. Value is possible. 1 - VENTURE PRINCESS attracts in closing skill at Freehold. Joins us; great draw for a tactical options mix. 6 - HOLY KOLY dips to this level with a like post to recent; was able to get past tired foes. Fits and plays. 5 - NICE STUFF perked up when dropping to this level two prior. Another not afraid to bid mid-race and share.

Race 6 - Non-Winners 1 Race

2 - ANDOVER SUPER BOWL protected second from the pocket on debut for Lebo after performing rather well on the Iowa fair circuit at 2 and 3. Inside draw can keep her prominent from the start again with ease. 1 - SERRANO VOLO qualified OK last week, but had some breaking issues throughout the summer and early fall. Debuts for Ehrhart; pole can aid. 4 - MOTHER LIN was fourth or better in four of her last five, all at this level. Raw speed is encouraging, too; mind value.

Race 7 - Non-Winners $14,500 Last 5 Starts, 7 Races or $70,000

7 - GINGER TREE SKYR chased stoutly on the rise to this level last week, and preserved third at hefty odds. Continued trajectory can help him offer similar value in this similar race. 4 - MACMORRIS HANOVER converted from the pocket last out, and now rises. He's enjoyed sustained success over this track; Nap remains aboard. 3 - GOES DOWN SMOOTH returns from Yonkers, where an early break cost him any chance last out. Lines two and three back indicated pressing ability in tougher groups. Can bounce back; mind value.

Race 8 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

7 - SYLVESTERAMERICAIT dropped to this level last week and almost held his ground at odds-on after picking up the pace significantly on the far side. Wide draw is really his only obstacle in this group. 3 - IZOH made a solid account of his abilities last week, pressing into the far turn and missing by just a length. Good fit for this level; can absorb a lot of air. 1 - DOT DOT DOT DASH stayed on well from the pocket two back, and now drops to the level after posting belated gains from astern in her last. Figures well for at least a minor, especially given the kind draw.

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Race 9 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

3 - HALL IT OFF looks for a fourth straight today and plausibly gears up for stakes-level play. Very tough to choose anyone against this competitor, provably can take a lead and keep it. Extremely improved after a brief rest last month. Formidable foe within a solid field. Your better value might come from exotics. 6 - GINGERTREE STAKIAS saved second last week after a solid bid and brief lead. Generally productive in the class. Likes to stalk. His best can win. 1 - CATWALK AS has done her best work this autumn on our oval. Prime draw and versatility noted. Do not leave her off tickets.

Race 10 - Non-Winners $2,500 Last 5 Starts

5 - TW LAUXMONT gets another crack at this level after a more or less even showing last week. Midpack draw gives Lachance options in this more manageable group yet. 4 - D' DREAM improved into third in the same race TW Lauxmont exits. Week-over-week improvement noted. 3 - TROTTING Z TAM passed the tired in the tougher first-level division last week. Post relief can aid the value player, but Tetrick opted off for Dover stakes later in the day.

Race 11 - Non-Winners $10,000 Last 5 Starts

4 - MEADOWBRANCH RICKY rises after winning from the pocket last week. He's hit the board in four of six; expect him to be close again. Current trajectory encourages. 5 - HASHTAGMADEYALOOK saved a no-match third at this level in his last, and he wired similar in a sharp 1:52 4/5 four starts back. Likewise capable; versatility noted. 6 - MAX'S BEAST also won at this level four back, doing so from an earned pocket. While he cedes a raw speed edge, he makes up for it with proven staying power from insulated trips.

Race 12 - Non-Winners 5 Races or $50,000

4 - RECIPROCALBLUECHIP has improved in the last month. Raw speed sufficient; appreciated the extra days off earlier this month with an attractive second-place finish. Slim call in an interesting race. 6 - CONTEXT is looking for a fourth-consecutive score today and was tough to choose against. Every chance to repeat. 2 - MEANTTOBE DE VIE regularly produces on the course and fits right in to at least share. Closes better than fair in many. Must mind gait manners.

Race 13 - Non-Winners $7,000 Last 5 Starts

5 - GUARD YOUR HEARTS struggled from a high post last time but now dips to the third-level competition. Versatile and effective at the level; might leave or float. Tissue-thin call. 7 - MR HOUDINI might appreciate speed to chase for best results, but he wasn't all that far away against similar foes. Showed flexible tactics against like two back, and now returns from Yonkers. Consider for any position at value. 2 - CAJOLE HANOVER is the senior equine of the lineup and flashed youthful speed last time against lower. He's back up to a class he's struggled in, but note a refreshed confidence quotient and good draw for at least a share. Versatile, too.

Race 14 - Non-Winners 3 Races or $30,000

4 - CHURCH SOUT adds Lasix this week after an even at best outing last time. Avoids Ginger Tree Bren and gains Miller in his second start for these connections. 3 - EXPECT THE SWEEP rises after edging clear of N2L foes at Dover last out. Forgive his Nov. 30 line on account of early exertion from post 8. Gains McCarthy. 7 - BEAUTIFUL MRS A cleared, yielded, and saved third at this level last week, reached from the pocket four back, and also won via an overland grind six back. Capable at this level if she can overcome the draw.