Breakout Beyers: Prevalence turns heads with impressive maiden win

Each week in this space, the top Beyer performances by maiden winners will be featured and analyzed. Click here for a complete archive.

Prevalence

Jan. 23, 6th race Gulfstream, MdSpWt4k
Beyer: 89
7f 1:23, 1st by 8 1/2 lengths
b. c. 3, Medaglia d’Oro – Enrichment, by Ghostzapper
Noteworthy siblings: Libreta (Girolamo) – stakes winner, $129k earnings; Estihdaaf (Arch) – G3 winner, $184k earnings
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Breeder: Godolphin

One of the splashiest maiden winners so far this year. Won this from the front end but didn’t break especially well, getting off a half beat behind the fleetest from the gate. Came up under mild urging to contest the pace but was stuck along the rail with several foes stacked outside him; he handled that with aplomb, especially for a debut runner. Traveled impressively around the turn and when jockey Tyler Gaffalione checked over his shoulder at the five-sixteenths pole, nobody was near him. Some horses that win by a margin this wide are asked for serious run in upper stretch before being geared down, but Gaffalione asked this colt for next to nothing, still with a hold on his mount crossing the wire. Was not asked to gallop out much but didn’t need that to turn heads. His brother Estihdaaf won the 2019 UAE 2000 Guineas over one mile. This one will go two turns but is not a lock to excel at 1 1/4 miles.

The Great One

Jan. 23, 2nd race Santa Anita, MdSpWt59k
Beyer: 92
1 mile 1:37.28, 1st by 14 lengths
b. c. 3, Nyquist – Little Ms Protocol, by El Corredor
Auctions: OBS yearling 2019 - $125,000; OBS open horses of racing age 2020 - $185,000
Owner: ERJ Racing, Train Wreck Al Racing Stables, Niall Brennan, Tom Fritz
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Breeder: Coteau Grove Farms

Colt has made serious progress through his five-start career. He was thrown in the Los Alamitos Futurity as a maiden and missed by a nose to Spielberg, who is capable if not elite. That was his second start with blinkers while this race was his first on Lasix, for whatever that’s worth. Tracked the even-money favorite, was asked slightly to maintain contact at the half-mile pole, took over when the pacesetter folded badly at the quarter pole, and jogged home, galloping out perhaps 30 lengths in front. It’s important to note there were only three others in race and none fired. Not a huge horse but has stride length that seems to belie his size, and goes pretty nicely racing in blinkers and a shadow roll. He’s a Louisiana-bred in name only; Nyquist as his sire, a multiple La.-bred stakes-winning dam, and the female-side sires El Corredor, Coronado’s Quest, Broad Brush, and Private Account are a very nice assemblage.

Slumber Party

Jan. 24, 5th race Gulstream, MdSpWt43k
Beyer: 88
7f 1:23.05, 1st by 7 1/2 lengths
b. f. 3, Malibu Moon – Devilish Lady, by Sweetsouthernsaint
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Breeder: Gary and Mary West

Ran one day after the colt Prevalence, who made this list, and was .05 seconds slower to the wire after being faster at all the other points of call. That gets at the difference in these two horses’ performance. This filly looked a lot quicker, and where Prevalence was hooked during the early and middle stages, this horse shook loose and had a big lead around the turn, the outcome hardly in doubt before the quarter pole. Jockey Joel Rosario urged her a little in upper stretch, including a pop of the crop, but two looks over his right shoulder and he knew he could gear her down. She looks a robust specimen and perhaps can outrun her pedigree. The dam was a stakes-class sprint horse, though she did finish second in the Suncoast Stakes, her lone two-turn start. Other damsires on the female side are Diablo and Valid Appeal, lending more speed than stamina. We’ll see about longer trips, but as for talent, that shone clear in her first trip to post.

Windmill

Jan. 23, 9th race Oaklawn, MdSpWt82k

Beyer: 84
6f 1:10.54, 1st by 4 lengths
b. f. 3, Street Sense – Zaharias, by Grand Slam
Auctions: Keeneland September yearling 2019 - $330,000
Owner: Fox Hill Farms
Trainer: Larry Jones
Breeder: Nesco II Limited

Was 12-1 debuting, but broke from the fence, made the lead, and ran odds-on favorite Marion Francis right off her feet. The Brad Cox-trained chalk tried to make a run approaching the furlong grounds, where Windmill drifted out slightly and looked like she might be wearying, but that wasn’t the case at all as she found more, turned back the challenge, and was going away at the wire. Not only did Windwill win by four, but there were six more lengths from second back to the show horse. Turns her legs over fairly rapidly but goes pretty nicely, and while there are no noteworthy siblings, the dam is a sister to several stakes winners, among then Visionaire, who won the Grade 1 King’s Bishop over seven furlongs, and Tara’s Tango, who won the Grade 1 Santa Margarita over a route of ground. The Dixie Belle for 3-year-old fillies over six furlongs comes up quickly on Feb. 13, so maybe we don’ t see her there, but she’ll probably be heard from again this winter.

Outasite

Jan. 23, 5th race Oaklawn Park, MdSpWt82k
Beyer: 84
6f 1:10.66, 1st by 2 1/2 lengths
b. c. 3, Outwork – Riding Point, by Speightstown
Noteworthy siblings: Acting out (Blame) – 3-6 wins, $110k earnings
Auctions: Keeneland November breeding 2018 - $45,000; Keeneland September yearling 2019 - $155,000; OBS March 2yo 2020 - $380,000
Owner: Rupp Racing
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Vincent Colbert

Broke somewhat awkwardly in this, his third career start, but flashed some serious zip to quickly make the front and control the race for the last five furlongs as an odds-on favorite. Showed speed in his first two races as well, both over seven furlongs, and he is made like a horse who could at least be a middle-distance type. Races in a tongue tie but nothing else on his head and looks like a large, powerful specimen, which makes sense given his sales history. The dam is a sister to Onus, who was a good turf miler, and, in fact, all the best more-recent performers on the dam’s side were grass horses. He won this race with only moderate urging and was holding strong to the wire. Wonder if they give him a shot to at least get a mile next time.