Breakout Beyers: Nash rambles in maiden win, looking like a Derby horse

Each week in this space, the top Beyer performances by maiden winners will be featured and analyzed. Click here for a complete archive.

Nash
Nov. 12, 7th race Churchill, MdSpWt120k
Beyer: 95
1 1/16 miles 1:43.15 – 1st by 10 1/4 lengths
b.c.2, Medaglia d’Oro – Sara Louise, by Malibu Moon
Noteworthy siblings: Spa City (Street Sense, foaled 2017) – stakes-placed, $447K earnings; Sara Street (Street Sense, foaled 2015) – graded stakes-placed, $216K earnings
Auctions: None
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Godolphin

The fractional splits from the maiden victory of an entirely plausible Kentucky Derby winner: 23.83, 24.10, 24.48, 24.40, 6.34. Accounting for the run-up at the start, Nash went his fourth quarter-mile about as fast as his first quarter-mile, and accounting for the fact that the race’s outcome had been decided well before the eighth pole, and that Nash’s work already was done, his final half-furlong doesn’t suggest the colt was tiring, either. Nash debuted at Keeneland in a six-furlong maiden and turned in a performance, earning an 84 Beyer, that would have won, say, 97 percent of all 2-year-old maiden races. He just happened to run into an extremely sharp fellow first-time starter, Booth, who went straight to the front and won by more than five lengths. Nash had four lengths on the third-place horse, who finished nearly three lengths to the good of the fourth horse home in an 11-runner field. Fast time, spread-out field – signs of a strong heat, which it was. Here, it was Nash and Florent Geroux who went immediately to the lead, the colt throwing his ears up when he hit the backstretch and going along well within himself. He changed leads at the quarter pole like an old pro and when Geroux finally asked for something, Nash quickly opened a huge margin. This wasn’t just the false visual impression of acceleration, which we see all the time on dirt, but actual quickening by a 2-year-old making his second start in a dirt route. That’s strong stuff, and Nash is a very strong prospect.

Mystik Dan
Nov. 12, 4th race Churchill, MdSpWt121k
Beyer: 94
5 1/2 furlongs 1:03.27 – 1st by 7 3/4 lengths
b.c.2, Goldencents – Ma’am, by Colonel John
Noteworthy siblings: None
Auctions: None
Owner: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, Daniel Hamby III
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, Daniel Hamby III

It would be hard to find fault with this performance, which was both professional and very fast. Mystik Dan had set the pace and finished second debuting at Keeneland in a 6 1/2-furlong race. The trainer does not typically push horses into their first start, and Mystik Dan perhaps merely lacked full race fitness first out rather than signaling strict distance limitations. That said, one might be a little skeptical that he will stretch out even to a two-turn mile, as is the tentative plan early next year in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. While Mystik Dan has plenty of speed, he is not run-off fast, and after breaking on top here was content to sit second behind the pacesetter. Mystik Dan left that leader behind at the quarter pole even before his rider began a vigorous hand ride in upper stretch and put this race to bed at the three-sixteenths. He was shut down not far past the wire, several horses galloping out in front of him, and while one wouldn’t want to read too much into that, Mystik Dan did not go out like an obvious prospect for longer distances. Not every good young horse has to be a Classic contender, and Mystik Dan, after two races, looks quite good.

Tarifa
Oct. 25, 5th race Keeneland, MdSpWt100k
Beyer: 83
About 7 furlongs 1:28.51 – 1st by 6 lengths
b.f.2, Bernardini – Kite Beach, by Awesome Again
Noteworthy siblings: None
Auctions: None
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Godolphin

One of a flurry of talented 2-year-olds unleashed this fall in Kentucky by the Brad Cox barn, and when an outfit like this starts a horse off at an extended sprint, it often suggests the youngster has enough speed to handle a one-turn race, but also appears to be a route prospect – Tarifa in a nutshell. Debuting in blinkers, she had decent speed to get to the rail stalking the lead pack before coming between horses past the five-sixteenths pole to look the pacesetter in the eye. Tarifa always was going best and responded immediately when asked to open daylight after turning for home. Have to rank her as a leading dirt-route stakes prospect for early 2024.