Breakout Beyers: Doppelganger wins debut with plenty left in the tank

Each week in this space, the top Beyer performances by maiden winners will be featured and analyzed. Click here for a complete archive.

Doppelganger

Dec. 11, 8th race Los Alamitos, MdSpWt54k

Beyer: 80

6f 1:09.21 – 1st by 3 1/2 lengths

b. c. 2, Into Mischief – Twice the Lady, by Quiet American

Noteworthy siblings: None

Auctions: Fasig-Tipton select yearling 2020 – $570,000

Owner: Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables, SF Racing, Siena Farm, Starlight Racing

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Breeder: WinStar Farm

His trip in this race, his career debut, looks much tougher on paper than it actually was, though, to be fair, he was able to overcome a troubled start by racing professionally and having the gears to get where he needed, both of which, obviously, are marks in his favor. I, umm, think they liked him first out: Doppelganger went off at odds of 1-2 facing eight rivals. He drew the rail and his career got off to a bumpy start, literally, when the horse immediately outside him conked him twice in the first several strides. That led to a stalking trip from seventh position early, but jockey Flavien Prat always had horse beneath him and was able to hold his position along the fence, saving ground all the way around the turn. All the pace pressers folded up at the quarter pole, leaving a gaping hole between them and the leader just as Prat came off the fence with a live horse looking for room. Doppelganger pounced on the pacesetter and took care of him without being asked, nor, in fact, did Prat ever do more than mildly move his hands the entire stretch run. The winning margin was wide enough as it was, and this is one case where it really did seem this colt could’ve scored by more had he been asked for anything through final furlong. He’s the third foal to race from a dam who won a listed race over 1 1/16 miles and hit the board in two graded races at the same distance. There’s a lot of dirt stamina going deeper in the family, and the colt rates as a very strong prospect going into his 3-year-old season.

Emmanuel

Dec. 11, 7th race Gulfstream, MdSpWt53k

Beyer: 78

1M 1:36.47 – 1st by 6 3/4 lengths

b. c. 2, More Than Ready – Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun

Noteworthy siblings: None

Auctions: Keeneland September yearling 2020 – $350,000

Owner: WinStar Farm and Siena Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Helen Groves Revocable Trust

He got a lower Beyer than his stablemate Dean’s List, who won his debut racing on the same card, but Emmanuel earns the slightly higher rating here on visual impression and because he already showed with this start that he can get a middle distance. Nothing against sprinters, but this is the time of year, obviously, we’re looking for classic prospects. Pletcher chose a mile for this colt’s debut while sending Dean’s List into the maiden sprint, but Emmanuel had plenty of speed to establish a forward early position breaking from post 1. He had pressure to the far turn, where jockey Luis Saez let him out a notch and opened daylight, and after a couple rivals crept into contention approaching the quarter pole, Saez asked his mount for more run turning for home and, as had been the case at the half-mile pole, got an immediate response. Emmanuel’s lead change was flawless, and this race was over well before the furlong grounds. Of course, we know to take front-running debut winners over this surface with a grain of salt, but this colt looks quite talented.

Under the Stars

Dec. 11, 5th race Los Alamitos, MdSpWt55k

Beyer: 80

6f 1:09.16 – 1st by 3 lengths

b. f. 2, Pioneerof the Nile – Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Noteworthy siblings: Bodemeister (Empire Maker) – won G1 Arkansas Derby, 2nd Kentucky Derby, $1.3M earnings; Fascinating (Smart Strike) – G1 placed; Himiko (American Pharoah) – stakes-placed

Auctions: None

Owner: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Breeder: Eaton

Baffert finished second and third in the Los Al Futurity later on this card but had the two noteworthy maiden winners in this filly and the colt Doppelganger. The dam, Untouched Talent (now a 17-year-old), has produced a number of talented horses since Bodemeister, with Under the Stars definitely included. Under the Stars finished with good energy but ran third, beaten less than one length, as an odds-on favorite in her debut. They tried her second out in the Desi Arnaz, where she set the pace and faded to third racing with blinkers added. Blinkers came off for this start, where Under the Stars broke from post 12, and she reverted to stalking tactics, which seem to better serve the filly. Speed figures that account for ground loss will rate this showing even higher since Under the Stars raced three to four paths wide around the entire turn, jockey Prat surely realizing he could afford to lose ground on a superior animal. Spun even wider into the homestretch, Under the Stars clearly was going best at the quarter pole and made the front – and hit the wire – while never encouraged by more than Prat’s hands. She’s well above average for a horse who needed three tries for a first victory and looks like she can at least get a middle distance.

Dean’s List

Dec. 11, 4th race Gulfstream, MdSpWt53k

Beyer: 83

6f 1:09.92 – 1st by 5 1/2 lengths

ch. c. 2, Speightstown – Mildly Offensive, by Sharp Humor

Noteworthy siblings: None

Auctions: Fasig-Tipton select yearling 2020 – $220,000 (RNA)

Owner: WinStar Farm and Siena Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: WinStar Farm

This is the third foal to race (the first two were useful, nothing more) from Mildly Offensive, also campaigned by Pletcher and WinStar. Debuting as a 3-year-old in 2011, Mildly Offensive, a sprinter, might have run her best race in her second start, when she won the Santa Paula with a 98 Beyer. This colt failed to meet his reserve at a 2020 yearling sale, first showing up on the work tab way back in May at Keeneland. He was bet down to the 13-10 second choice and had good gate speed from a cozy outside draw, pressing the inside leader down the backstretch and around the turn and taking the lead at the quarter pole. No one came close to him in the homestretch, though his run to the wire lacked visual verve in part because he failed to ever change leads, drawing clear all the while. The gallop out was fine, and “fine” better describes Dean’s List’s debut than anything like “spectacular.”