Beer: 2018 Preakness analysis

Heading into the Kentucky Derby so lightly raced and untested after a late start to his career seemed to be the biggest obstacle for JUSTIFY two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. But his innate talent seemed undeniable, and he was sent off as the favorite.

Justify did not disappoint, as he kept up with a fast early pace en route to a dominant win in the Kentucky Derby.

Considering the overall strength of this 3-year-old crop and that Derby runner-up Good Magic and third-place finisher Audible – both Grade 1 winners – ran so well without ever threatening in the stretch, it would seem that Justify is going to be even harder to beat in a Preakness that did not come up nearly as tough as the Derby.

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The fear of regression from such a lightly raced colt is real, especially when one considers the relatively short amount of time in which he has accomplished so much, but Justify as of now stands head and shoulders above his rivals in this division and seems likely to head to New York in three weeks looking for a Triple Crown.

If he does indeed feel the effects of such a hard race on a quick turnaround, then GOOD MAGIC is clearly the horse most likely to pull off the upset. He also was close to that fast pace in the Derby, and he took a game run at Justify coming into the stretch before being turned away and holding on for second. Last year’s 2-year-old male champ is a very good horse, and he ran an excellent race in the Derby. That Chad Brown is willing to wheel him back to try Justify again in the Preakness says quite a bit about how he is doing right now.

SPORTING CHANCE has to improve greatly in order to get close to the two favorites, but he is a talented horse and did not get the greatest trip when flattening out late on the Derby undercard last time.

LONE SAILOR did not encounter as much trouble as others in the Derby, but he was stalled a bit while saving ground around the turn before rallying mildly late. He benefits if Justify and Good Magic go at it early, and he is unlikely to be bothered by a wet track, should that be the case.

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