Beer: 2018 Belmont Stakes analysis

Covering one full lap around Belmont Park’s massive main track can be a daunting task for any horse, let alone one standing on the precipice of becoming racing’s 13th winner of the Triple Crown. Even though we saw American Pharoah win with everything on the line just three short years ago, it is worth remembering that Big Sandy had tripped up more than one aspiring Triple Crown winner prior to 2015, several of them with credentials that were strong enough to make them worthy of the accomplishment.

All that stands in the way of JUSTIFY joining that prestigious club is that one long lap around Belmont Park, and nine rivals. His advantages in the Belmont are many. Not only has he already proven his superiority over many of the horses he will be facing in the Belmont, but he has run the fastest races in the field, and he has the kind of easy speed that allows him to make his own trip without being compromised by pace dynamics.

What he may also have going for him Saturday is a fast track. Justify won the first two legs of the Triple Crown over wet tracks, but the two fastest races of his career have come in his only starts over fast dirt.

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Justify is going to be a heavy favorite to win the Belmont Stakes, and he appears to be a most deserving one.

The main threat to Justify is likely to be the lightly raced and emerging HOFBURG. He ran quite well in the Derby, despite catching traffic at the back of the field in what was only his fourth start, and he was racing on at the end of that race and galloped out well past the wire. He appears to be everyone’s alternative to Justify, and deservedly so.

VINO ROSSO never got untracked in the Derby while racing wide, but he showed promise early on for trainer Todd Pletcher. If he can rebound to an effort more like his late-running Wood Memorial win, he can get a big piece of this race. Pletcher owns a strong record in the Belmont, with three wins and four seconds from the last 11 runnings.

BLENDED CITIZEN is a new face on the Triple Crown trail, which is not necessarily a bad thing, and he exits a career-best effort winning the Peter Pan over this track with a perfect trip. He has to improve, but he should stay the distance.