Marcus's Analysis: 

I typically gravitate toward first-time starters in maiden races, but I couldn’t get there with any in this sprint – a race about which I find it difficult to form a strong opinion. #1 Flawless Quality is bred to be a turf route horse and must overcome the rail for a trainer that doesn’t often win with first timers, while #7 Rock Harbor starts for a trainer who rarely has a first-time starter in a straight maiden race at all. Her sire, Exaggerator, is average at best with debut runners, and there’s no workout video available. 

Of the two more obvious firsters, I like #6 Thoughtful better than #3 Penny Royal. Penny Royal is a sister to the excellent racehorse and good sire Good Magic, but, from workout video, I’d guess Thoughtful has a better chance to win first time out. Penny Royal worked inside a partner in the two Churchill breezes we can see, and it’s a positive sign trainer Steve Asmussen paired her with a faster horse in the second of them. Thoughtful crushed an unraced maiden in a Keeneland gate drill and, encouragingly, broke sharply. I think she’ll have speed, and in her Churchill work, she was very hard held and wanted to do more than permitted. 

#4 Sundance Feature fits the spot if her Tapeta form transfers to dirt, and she didn’t look hapless breezing on dirt last fall. At Turfway, she fought past the pacesetter, showing a desire to compete. But it’s #10 Bellofthebluegrass on top for me. Racing along the rail in her debut, she chased a blowout front-running winner, who flopped in her next start but had run well in her previous race, Bellofthebluegrass more than three lengths clear of third. Opinions differ on how often and to what extent the Keeneland surface favored speed during the track’s recent meet, but it would be difficult arguing that early leaders didn’t have much the best of things April 12. Bell broke alertly from post 12 but would have been extremely wide going into the turn had she not dropped back to race from eighth. Her turn move was relatively sharp, and she came through the homestretch in the middle of the track, fruitlessly chasing a winner who’d made a clear lead. 

David's Response: 

Trainers like Cox and Asmussen typically unveil some of their better first time starters on big stages such as this, so I preferred them to those with experience, none of which caught my eye.

As Marcus noted, #6 Thoughtful has trained very well for the debut, showing the kind of early speed that suggests she should be ready to fire on debut. Nothing clever from me.

David's Analysis: 

Two recent maiden winners figure to attract plenty of support in what appears to be a fairly wide open N1X allowance. The one I’m looking to play against is #11 Sedona. I get the case for her – she’s bred to run all day and won sprinting on debut – but I just didn’t think much of that group she beat first time out at Gulfstream. I know the race got a fast fig, but the number looks highly dubious to me on a day when they ran only two dirt races. She has to prove her quality to me before I take a short price on her.

#9 Sidamara is the other recent maiden graduate, and at least she already owns a victory going two turns. She received some useful education in that second start, racing in traffic before getting clear for the stretch drive, but she also got a favorable pace setup. I get the sense she’s a little further along than Sedona at this stage so I’ll use her, but I preferred another on top.

I wanted to like #6 Wonder Ride based on her 2-year-old résumé, but downgraded her after watching her workouts. She looks like she’s still in the process of getting her fitness back. Conversely, I like the way #1 Weigh the Risks has been working on the dirt and won’t be surprised when she ultimately prefers this surface. I just doubt we’re going to get sufficient value for these popular connections.

The horse I want to key on is #10 Standoutsensation. She doesn’t have the obvious upside of those two aforementioned fillies, but she brings solid form to this race, having faced graded stakes-quality runners in her last three starts. She gave Oaks contender Tarifa all she could handle in that allowance three back, then closing well behind Fair Grounds Oaks runner-up Our Pretty Woman in February. I didn’t even think she ran that badly when overmatched in the G1 Ashland, as she was mildly shuffled back around the far turn before staying on. There doesn’t appear to be that much speed signed on here for such a large field, and this filly tends to do her best work when she’s involved early. I would imagine the switch to Luis Saez is a signal that they want to get back to more aggressive tactics with her.

The longshot that I wanted to upgrade, but ultimately couldn’t justify elevating to top pick status, is #3 Sing a Little Song. She closed stoutly over this course as a 2-year-old and ran well in two subsequent starts at Gulfstream. Like a few others in here, she contested that April 7 allowance at Keeneland. Jose Ortiz basically gave her no chance, letting her drop out of position early in a speed-dominated affair, then making little effort to get her involved. She’s better than that, and is likely to rebound this time. Perhaps that’s good enough to get a piece of this at a big price.

Marcus's Response:

I have no issue with Standoutsensation as a top pick. Her established form ought to make her a favorite but probably won’t, the very definition of value. I feel more positive about Sidamara’s maiden win than David seems to: She had a lot to overcome, did it well, and has much more positional pace than she showed that day. I am more bullish on Sedona than David, though I agree she’s likely to be a shorter price than she merits, and more bearish on Weigh the Risks. There’s nothing else in the race that catches my eye. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

The race centers around #8 Arthur’s Ride, likely to be a substantially shorter price than the 3-1 on the morning line. Something like 7-5 seems more likely, and I couldn’t advocate taking that kind of price. Arthur’s Ride has shown talent since the start of a career interrupted by a long layoff, but came back from that layoff with, going by the Beyers, was the fastest race he’s run. The Mott barn has taken their time running him back, which could be the case for a variety of reasons: Trying to avoid a bounce, a desire to run the horse on a grand stage (Oaks Day), and lack of a suitable spot. It’s not that I’m wholly against Arthur’s Ride, because I think he’s good, but I’m not sure his baseline level is quite as good as the margin of victory and speed figure last out make him appear.  

Arthur’s Ride steps up a level in class, and #5 Injunction is a faster, more accomplished horse than he ran against last time: The Gulfstream race had a $25,000 claiming option, and the one that allows Injunction to run here is $80,000. I’m not holding Injunction’s tame showing when he returned from a winter break at Oaklawn Park; he came back with a much better performance on turf and is a better horse on dirt. Best of all for Injunction is the one-turn mile configuration. 

#11 Empty Tomb also likes a one-turn mile, and it’s interesting that a trainer who runs mainly on the East Coast, and who has been a steady winner, brings this 8-year-old back from an extended layoff on Oaks Day at Churchill Downs. He was second at this level two races (and one year) ago, but to be honest, the more I looked at this race after making my selections, the less I liked this horse. 

#7 Cyclone Mischief should have been sent for the lead last out at Keeneland – he would have gotten it. Not sure this one-turn contest will be run to suit him. 

David's Response: 

Marcus and I have a similar take on #8 Arthur’s Ride. He’s the most likely winner, but I don’t fully trust him to produce back-to-back big efforts, and he figures to be a very short price.

I was initially going to pick #5 Injunction as well, because I don’t think he’s been in the best spots recently. I just wonder if he’s still the same horse we saw in 2022 at this point, now as a 6-year-old. He might not have to be quite that sharp and he has run his best races at Churchill. I’m using him.

I ended up putting #7 Cyclone Mischief on top even though I’ve never been much of a believer in this horse. He did turn out to be better than I anticipated as a 3-year-old, placing in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, races that I thought might be a tad too far for him. He ran better than it might appear off the layoff going this distance last November, and then was just put in the wrong spots the last couple of times. I also agree with Marcus about the tactics in his last outing. The one-turn mile is his best distance, and I think a quiet jock like Jose Ortiz could be a good fit for a horse who is sometimes tough to handle. He’s always a good work horse, but he certainly appeared to be thriving when ripping off a 47 half last week. I suspect he’s sitting on his best race since last year’s Derby trail, we’ll see if it’s good enough at a square price.

Pick-5 Wager

Marcus has crafted an ABC-style Pick-5 wager starting in Race 3, outlined here and broken into individual wagers below. (Total at 50-cent base: $56)

Race: A / B / C
R3: 5,8 / 7,11 / --
R4: 2,6 / 8,10 / 9,12,13,16
R5: 4,6 / -- / --
R6: 2 / -- / 5,9,10
R7: 3 / 4 / 6,10

David's Analysis: 

With this race coming off the turf, I have some interest in #2 Sultry Lass at what figures to be a generous price. She has run well on dirt before, and her last race is not as bad as it looks, since she spent most of her trip in the 3-path on a day at Keeneland when the rail seemed to be a significant advantage. Her form is somewhat inconsistent, but she's drawn better than most of the other horses with dirt form and doesn't figure to attract much attention. The other horses I would use are all logical types. #16 Batucada was no match for stakes-quality rivals last time but obviously handles the surface, Mike Maker always seems to be dangerous with horses like #10 Stir Crazy, and #12 Make the Boys Wink is logical but perhaps too obvious off her lone dirt race in an off the turf event late last year.

Marcus's Response: 

Agree with David's assessment of #2 Sultry Lass. Wouldn't be surprised if connections weren't hoping this rained onto dirt, since she has hit her highest mark on the surface. If you put the last three races, all unsuitable, into a pattern starting with her Fair Grounds maiden win, SL has a good chance to get back to her best. #12 Make the Boys Wink might not be ready first after a break to slog through nine furlongs on dirt, and I question #16 Batucada's stoutness at nine furlongs. That will not be an issue for #6 Bravo's Kitten, who gets 1 ½ miles. I see her grinding along competitively - if she can handle dirt / slop. #8 School Dance's best days are behind her, but she did have a fast local dirt work that DRF clockers liked, and she could seize an early lead here.

Marcus's Analysis: 

If both #4 Idiomatic and #6 Xigera ran their best race to date, Idiomatic clearly would win. That said, Idiomatic had a massive season of growth last year at age 4, and it’s hard to imagine we haven’t already seen the best of her. That might be enough to win another Eclipse Award, and Idiomatic, from the look of workout video, has been training with verve for her first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Distaff – which, it should be noted, was not her top performance. 

Xigera, however, is the 4-year-old with growth potential – right now. A switch to dirt last September pushed Xigera to a much higher level than she’d reached on turf, and she was quite accomplished on turf. She dominated lesser opposition during her autumn winning streak, but that also means Xigera didn’t have to be pushed to her limit before her winter break. Idiomatic did, and even with a winter to rest, hard races take their toll. 

Maybe Idiomatic goes straight to the lead, but #7 Dorth Vader has just as much pace and figures to be sharp coming back from her own layoff. There are several ways the inside post could make things tough on Idiomatic. If she is asked for speed at the start and Dorth Vader also comes out running, she’ll be pushed into a strong pace. If she tries to let Dorth Vader go, #3 Free Like a Girl is going to take the rail just behind the leader. Maybe none of that matters.  

But one year ago, trainer Phil Bauer won the La Troienne with Played Hard, who had the same pattern – Falls City in November, break, then La Troienne. There’s no workout video of Xigera, but DRF clockers speak highly of her recent breezes.  

I guess many see this as a contest between Idiomatic and #5 Pretty Mischievous. I want to see what Pretty Mischievous can do. She won a weak renewal of the Oaks, went on her Grade 1 winning streak by narrow margins, and ended her season being scratched from the Distaff.  

David's Response: 

Marcus and I are in alignment here. I have nothing to add.

David's Analysis: 

Let’s get one thing out of the way first. #2 Ova Charged is more likely to be 3-5 than 7-2. But isn’t she supposed to be a heavy favorite? Not only has she earned massive speed figures for those last couple of blowout turf victories, she also appears to have a pace advantage. The only horse who possesses the speed to challenge her on the front end is #3 Stone Silent, and the connections have been teaching her to rate recently, so it seems unlikely they’ll deviate from that plan, especially with the always conservative Junior Alvarado retaining the mount.

I get that Ova Charged is a Louisiana-bred facing open company, but it’s not as if she hasn’t beaten good horses before. Oeuvre, who she absolutely crushed two back, was one of the choices in the G3 Giants Causeway, a common race for several of these. The 113 Beyer she earned last time doesn’t appear to be some fluke – it stands up to scrutiny. It’s true that she’s done her best work at Fair Grounds, and perhaps that’s the angle you might take if you’re trying to beat her. I’m not.

Speaking of the Giants Causeway, I think the horse you want out of that race is #5 Elm Drive. She was chasing an extremely fast pace that fell apart, and held on best of those with forward early position. I think she could get a more favorable flow this time. I just view her as a good horse to key underneath the favorite in the exacta.

Marcus's Response:

In a different era, there might have been greater skepticism regarding the Louisiana-bred coming to Oaks Day for a trainer most of the crowd never has heard of. These days, smart money rules the pools, and, like David, I suspect that is going on Ova Charged. Don’t let the lack of works put you off: That is how Shane Wilson has trained this mare all along, and it clearly has worked. 

I thought the pace-chasers might wilt a bit after trying to reel in Ova Charged. Four-year-old Secret Money made nice progress from her first to second start this season and has a touch of upside to her.  

Marcus's Analysis: 

I came very close to taking #4 Call Me Fast on top. David did, so I’ll leave the deeper reasoning to him. Suffice it to say, the horse is better than his odds and has gotten some questionable rides. 

In fact, I looked hard at everyone in the Alysheba other than the overmatched #8 T O Saint Denis and #7 Tapit Trice, who has always been overrated, is sure to take more money than he merits, and appears to have missed his last workout for this comeback. 

You have to take a hard look at all the alternatives because it’s difficult to put full trust in #3 First Mission, likely to go off lower than his 8-5 morning line. In the end, I decided to trust him. 

I have little doubt that on raw ability, First Mission is the best horse in the Alysheba – the only entrant with a chance to rise to the top of a weak older-male dirt route division. His defeat in the Clark concerns me more than his Pegasus performance: He ran too bad in the Pegasus for that to mean much of anything, since he came back with a representative performance, but did he just bump against his ceiling in the Clark, run down by Trademark, a horse he should have beaten if he were top class? 

Maybe First Mission lost focus on a clear lead. Perhaps 1 1/8 miles is a touch farther than ideal. But I’m guessing the 4-year-old still has upside. He had an easy time in the Essex but won with so much in the tank that I can see him going forward. And his Churchill works have been, to my eyes, excellent. 

I threw #9 Pipeline into the mix at a long price. While he beat nothing at Keeneland, that race could have him set up for a better one if he keeps a lid on his mercurial temperament. Think he could make a clear lead and might have one more peak effort in him. 

David's Response: 

Just to put some general information out there, the Japanese horse will influence the pace of this race, and potentially be a problem for Pipeline. T O Saint Denis is a need-the-lead frontrunner in Japan who sometimes will open up a significant margin on his fields. I also doubt he’s around late, but it’s hard to see them changing up the tactics if he breaks cleanly, which he often does overseas.

While I believe #3 First Mission is the most likely winner, he’s going to be a very short price and I can’t shake the feeling that he’s a little overrated. Pace pressure or not, he was supposed to win the Clark last year, and he was never in danger of losing at Oaklawn last time against a softer field than this. He will probably win, but I wanted to find some alternative that would offer better value.

I think #4 Call Me Fast has the potential to run a race that will beat First Mission. It’s just been a struggle for him to put it all together, mostly because he’s a very difficult horse to ride. He typically travels handily into his races, but he possesses a short-lived turn of foot, which only lasts about a furlong before he flattens out. Therefore his riders often get tricked into moving too soon. That was a problem in the Blame last year, as well as in the Cornhusker. This is horse that requires patience, so I’m encouraged that the connections reach out to Flavien Prat, one of the best riders in the game. His return in the Commonwealth felt like a prep, and he had little chance with the way that race unfolded anyway. I think he’ll step forward here and viewed him as the only horse I really wanted to bet.

That said, I do want to slightly upgrade #10 Trademark after reading the DRF Clocker Report. He appears to be doing extremely well coming off the layoff, and his best race is clearly good enough to take down First Mission. He just has to work out a trip from this wide draw, easier said than done for a horse who typically needs early cover.

David and Marcus's Joint Pick-5

David and Marcus combine their opinions to come up with a Pick-5 wager starting in Race 7. (Total wager at indicated base values: $174)

Race: A / B / C
R7: 3,4 / -- / 10
R8: 2,5,6 / -- / 10
R9: 6,7,11 / 9 / --
R10: 4,9 / -- / --
R11: 3,13 / 12 / 5,14

David's Analysis: 

I know Marcus has reported that #4 Heavenly Sunday is more likely to run here than in the Distaff Turf Mile, and that’s just fine. She figures to attract more support in this race, and I don’t like her that much in either spot. She held her own against some decent rivals last year, but she did so while getting very good trips. She was extremely fortunate to win the Edgewood over this course last year, in a race where many in behind had less than ideal journeys. I just think there are better horses in here and wouldn’t want to take a short price on her, even with an apparent pace advantage.

The horse who is supposed to go favored, and may ultimately be the favorite when all is said and done, is #6 Surprisingly. I really don’t have a major knock against this mare. She has put forth two of her best efforts since Repole laid down $1 million for her and switched her to Todd Pletcher. She benefited from a fantastic Oisin Murphy ride in the Pegasus, but she still produced a tremendous effort to just miss behind the class Didia. Last time she arguably should have won the Orchid, as Jose Ortiz was locked in traffic while others got first run. I actually think she might have a future going those longer trips, but she obviously handles 1 1/8 miles and just seems like a logical fit for this race.

I really tried to talk myself into #2 Aspen Grove or #5 Mouffy. I’ll let Marcus cover the former, since he picked her. Mouffy was a little more appealing to me due to her tactical speed in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace. She got a very strange trip two back in the Megahertz where she was tugging every step of the way and still produced a decent finish once clear. She relaxed much better last time with the blinkers coming off, and finished up well while never a serious threat to Ruby Nell. She’s primarily gone shorter, but I don’t see why 9 furlongs is supposed to be an issue. I just get the sense Surprisingly may be a better horse than both of these, so I ended up siding with the shorter price, but I’ll use all three in exotics.

Marcus's Response:

I can’t disagree that Surprisingly, as things stand, is the “best” horse in this race, but, perhaps through no fault of her own, she has struggled finding the winner’s circle. I do expect her to be favored and was willing to oppose – but certainly not discount – the mare. 

I share David’s skepticism regarding Heavenly Sunday, but at least she will supply some sort of legitimate pace: There was none of that in the Hillsborough Stakes. I mean, when #10 Sparkle Blue is leading, you know the horses are going along at a crawl. That disadvantaged #2 Aspen Grove, who raced a few lengths off the gallop, but to what degree, I’m not sure. She did get through on the rail and had aim at Sparkle Blue, a solid finisher but not exactly a bolt of lightning, and was turned away. Also uncertain: What is this filly’s level? She failed when tested in top company overseas, though those one-mile races likely didn’t suit her, and the Grade 1 she captured at Belmont was, shall we say, squishy. I think she was over the top facing males in the Saratoga Derby and am pretty sure she didn’t run to form in the E.P. Taylor – but maybe she just doesn’t have great latitude for second-after-layoff improvement. I’m guessing she does, and I liked her work at Keeneland. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

I suppose many will believe trainer Brad Cox has this race locked up with #1 Impel and #7 Denim and Pearls. Denim and Pearls holds much more appeal to me than Impel, who, given the way she runs, drew quite poorly in Post 1. This also feels somewhat like a “try it to see how it goes” kind of move, cutting back to a one-turn mile after a disappointing performance in the Ashland. 

I feel pretty sure Denim and Pearls will be the shorter price between the two, and that she’s a more likely winner. If you take her Beaumont Stakes at face value and believe she’s running back to that, she’ll beat this bunch. I get that Denim and Pearls is a one-turn horse and couldn’t hit her peak in two routes before the Beaumont, but I doubt she is the superior beast that her margin of victory and speed figure from that performance suggest. There was one horse to beat in the Beaumont, her stable-mate Youalmosthadme, and when that filly barely ran a step, the race turned into a glorified workout.  

Quite a bit of chaff fills this race, horses I can’t make a case for winning or even coming especially so. I’m taking #6 Asternia as the upsetter. Asternia lost twice to Denim and Pearls at Oaklawn, but that was before she began racing in blinkers, an equipment change that substantially has raised her top line. The Purple Martin easily was the best race she’d run, and I was struck by how relaxed she appeared during the race; pace and fade, a sign of a horse who is not at all relaxed, had been her standard. This filly has a lot of scope, and the way she galloped out after her six-furlong win last time lends hope she can race just as well over this distance. She was matched with inferior competition but did work well enough in a company drill April 25 at Churchill. 

#5 Accommodate Eva’s three wins have come facing Louisiana-breds, but her Fair Grounds Oaks wasn’t terrible, and she might finish with more verve cutting back to this one-turn mile. And if #11 My Mane Squeeze merely needs a return to one-turn racing, she can contend. 

David's Response: 

Marcus and I aren’t that far apart here. We agree on the Cox fillies. I also want no part of #1 Impel and believe that #7 Denim and Pearls might simply be too much for these to handle if her last race is a true indication of her current form.

I might have also picked #6 Asternia if this race were 6 furlongs, because I agree with most of what Marcus likes about her. I do have some concerns about her getting 7 furlongs, but it’s not as if there’s a ton of pace in this race, so perhaps she can work out the right trip. She’ll be a part of my play.

I was also on the fence with #9 Halina’s Forte. I thought she benefited from a perfect trip in the Ruthless but she did beat a talented horse that day. The Ashland was always the wrong race for her, so I like this turnback. She’s another who could win if Denim and Pearls regresses.

My top pick is #11 My Mane Squeeze. I think it’s important to remember that Thorpedo Anna briefly held up the start of the Fantasy, and My Mane Squeeze was the first one loaded into the gate down in post 1. She had to wait in there for a couple of minutes, and that likely contributed to her flat-footed start, which put her out of position early. Her prior form at Aqueduct around one turn was excellent, and it’s likely that shorter will prove better based on her pedigree. I also much prefer this outside draw.

David's Analysis: 

This Edgewood obviously goes through #9 Hard to Justify, undefeated winner of last season’s BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. The one critique I’ll lodge about her form from last year is that she got very favorable trips in both stakes triumphs. She took full advantage of an inside draw and lack of pace in the Miss Grillo, and was able to attain forward position from a wide draw in the Breeders’ Cup, a race that featured a slow pace. It also didn’t hurt that main rival She Feels Pretty got hung wide around both turns. That said, I respect this filly’s talent and I love the way she’s been training for her return. Her versatility is an asset and I won’t be surprised when she works out a good trip once again. I’m expecting her to put in a strong effort off the layoff, but I do worry that she may dip below that 2-1 ML, which is already a tad short for me.

And that makes me give strong consideration to main rival #4 Buchu. Martin Garcia tried to make a smart tactical decision in the Breeders’ Cup. Sensing a lack of pace, he sent her away from the gate to get forward position, but ended up locked in a pocket in mid-pack. Having been called upon, she got too rank underneath him, which diminished her typically potent stretch kick. Based on that evidence, she’s not some one-dimensional deep closer. I think we saw that again last time when she made the first move into a pace that fell apart in the Appalachian, holding on comfortably despite hitting the front too early and bobbling in deep stretch. I like the way she’s trained since then and she drew a great post position for this rematch. I don’t think she’s much less likely to win than the favorite, so I’ll be keying on her.

Everyone else seems just a notch below this pair, but a few of them could wind up being interesting prices. The others I might consider are #10 Dynamic Pricing, who had some trouble getting clear in upper stretch of the Florida Oaks last time. She’s better than that result, and is worth considering if she is indeed as high as that 12-1 ML. With the scratch of Pounce, #11 Way to Be Marie sneaks into my selections. She ran a big speed figure last time at Fair Grounds, albeit with everything going her way. However, she might have really turned a corner for Rob Atras.

Marcus's Response:

Initially, I, like David, had Buchu on top here, reasoning, like David, that Hard to Justify’s form took on more shine than it deserved owing to her good fortune in the two stakes wins. However, the same qualities that got her such good position could do the same thing in the Edgewood, and watching Hard to Justify’s stakes wins a couple times, I got the sense that her superiority was greater than the bare margin of victory. I expect her to come forward as a 3-year-old and prove difficult to beat here.  

Everything David said about Buchu’s Breeders’ Cup is on point, but I do wonder, based on the level of competition, how strong her form really is. Her main rival in the Jessamine, Pounce, was terrible, and not entirely because of the race flow. She did get a good run into a strong pace two races back, but I was impressed in the way she completely altered tactics after leading in her previous start. I think she can bounce back.  

I’m less encouraged about Dynamic Pricing than David: I wanted to see more spark from her once she did have room to lengthen her stride at Tampa. She still looks quite immature. My Dynamic Pricing, and under horse, would be #13 Dancing N Dixie, a dead closer who won’t be badly compromised by her wide draw. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

I have seven throw-outs in this Oaks, which leaves seven to consider. Among those, I am against #12 Power Squeeze (she is skinny as a rail, and I wonder how she’s holding up after two peak races), and #11 Ways and Means. Ways and Means no doubt possesses talent and her last two starts have been troubled, but I believe she’ll get swept into a strong pace, and it’s already fair to wonder if, after just three starts and one since September, she has the deep foundation to win a race like this. (I also just don’t care for the way the filly moves.) #14 Leslie’s Rose benefitted from a dream trip to win the Ashland. In a perfect world I’d be skeptical of her running back to that, and she’s not good enough to overcome post 14. 

#13 Just F Y I, #8 Tarifa, and #5 Thorpedo Anna make my final cut. I do feel like the morning-training hype around Just F Y I has gotten a little out of control, though she clearly has worked with aplomb. Tarifa is the best-looking galloper of them all and has worked well, too, but her mental approach leaves something to be desired, and I wonder if the Fair Grounds Oaks was the key prep it often has been.  

I’ll admit to stubborn bias against some sires: A good horse can come from anywhere, but I struggle envisioning a daughter of Fast Anna – Thorpedo Anna -- winning the Kentucky Oaks. I am only half-serious here, but I question whether this is a real nine-furlong filly: She has a lot of brilliance to her and is put together more like a miler. 

#3 Where’s My Ring is, I believe, radically overlooked in the Oaks, which is fine – she is going to be a price. Can this filly get nine furlongs? Why, yes, she already did, and did so with energy to spare in the Gazelle.  

It would be difficult to overstate the number of bizarre (one might just say “poor”) rides this filly has gotten, sometimes being moved way to early, sometimes being held up too long. She first hit my radar in her Feb. 2 maiden race, where, for a weekly task, I was focusing on the winner. Who was this horse still battling at the finish, nearly coming back to win, after being sent wide and on the first turn to set a breakneck pace? I’d make the case she subsequently was held too long in the Santa Ysabel while Kinza, North America’s fastest 3-year-old filly dirt router, got away from her. It took a departure from California for Where’s My Ring to be ridden the right way. She raced professionally and effectively in the Gazelle. The addition of blinkers and a change of scenery have let her talent glow.  

I know little of trainer Val Brinkerhoff, but you can see he always has believed in this horse, and he is not afraid to train her the way she prefers. She only shows one work at Churchill but had two: The first one just was too slow to make the tab. It was anything but slow through the final quarter mile, Where’s My Ring accelerating impressively when asked to do something more serious by her rider. I think she’s a serious player in the Oaks. 

David's Response: 

We have a similar view of this race. I echo everything he said about #3 Where’s My Ring. She is my pick as well for all of the reasons given. I don’t know if we’ll get the 15-1 ML, but even a price around 8-1 seems fair.

I only differ from Marcus on the other horse I want to use. #12 Power Squeeze has been underrated throughout most of her career, and it’s looking like she won’t get the respect her form merits once again. I agree she isn’t the same physical specimen as others in here, but that hasn’t stopped her yet, as she consistently produces those strong finishes. I agree with the narrative around the Gulfstream Park Oaks – that #11 Ways and Means ran the better race – but I still think Power Squeeze is the one better suited to this task between those two, especially now that #15 Our Pretty Woman draws in, injecting more early pace.

I’m a big fan of #13 Just F Y I and could see her moving forward out of the Ashland. I just thought the aforementioned two would offer better value from a wagering perspective.

David's Analysis: 

Runaway debut winners #7 Tweetster and #11 Almostgone Rocket figure to vie for favoritism here. Between the pair, I slightly prefer Tweetster, who got a fast pace to close into on debut, but was at least comfortable rating behind horses before angling into the clear. She beat a slightly better field than her main rival, and might still have some upside in her second start.

Almostgone Rocket was visually impressive drawing off under light handling. However, that was a pretty pitiful maiden special weight field she was crushing. She is stepping way up in class as she tries winners for the first time. Typically I would be staunchly against a horse like this based on those grounds, but Brad Cox has convincing stats with these types. Over 5 years, he is a remarkable 21 for 53 (40%, $2.62 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints.

Looking beyond those two, this is a confusing race. Many of these have shown talent on occasion, but some are coming off layoffs while others look like they’re regressing after having already peaked.

Given that array of options, I prefer the experience and reliability of #3 Harbor Springs. She faced a very strong field on debut, closing respectably for third, and she’s progressed in two starts since. She broke her maiden decisively two back, and then took another step forward in the Beaumont. She was no match for the runaway winner, but did well to make up some ground into a pretty slow pace. Anything near the 6-1 ML seems like a great price on a filly who just appears to be well suited to this task.

Marcus's Response: 

Regarding those Oaklawn debut winners, my analysis of this race for the print version of Daily Racing Form is just about a carbon copy. I sided with Autumn Evening over Harbor Springs, but it now appears Autumn Evening will stay in New York and run there this weekend, so David and I land on the same horse in Harbor Springs. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

Another non-stakes race without a lot of heft behind it. The two shortest prices seem clear: #2 Chilled and #8 Princess Madison. I’m not sure either one is especially reliable but felt like I was stabbing turning elsewhere. Nothing flashed from workout videos of #7 Sustancia and #11 Plumeria. No works to be seen for #10 Speed Shopper, who interested me more because we have no real line on her ability: She debuted on turf and had no chance, given her circumstances, switching to dirt second time out in a fast maiden race.  

Princess Madison didn’t have a clean trip when second to a front-running winner while debuting at Keeneland. I don’t have any serious knocks on that race, other than it doesn’t appear to have been especially fast. The way the filly traveled hinted that going a furlong farther could help her. She broke poorly and had no speed whatsoever in her April 25 gate work, but closed the big gap on her workmate, the capable filly Tipsy Tammy. 

In the end, I liked Chilled more. Her 2-year-old races suggest she wasn’t quite ready to be a racehorse, while her 3-year-old debut showed a vastly improved filly. She raced in a claustrophobic spot much of her trip and never came off the bridle or got rattled, and when she had room to finish, she finished. I actually like her cutting back from a route to a one-turn mile. 

David's Response: 

Marcus clearly likes that Keeneland race won by Sidamara more than I do. Chilled wouldn’t shock me here, but I preferred others.

I do view #8 Princess Madison as the horse to beat. She overcame significant traffic first time out and was finishing like a horse who had more to give. I expect a step forward this time for a dangerous barn.

I had liked Speed Shopper, but will probably pass this race now that she's scratched.