David's Analysis: 

He's not my kind of horse given the layoff and lack of upside, but one could argue that BOURBON SOCIETY (#9) is the one to beat in the opener. He consistently shows up in spots like this, and he's competed admirably in some pretty salty maiden events, especially through the second half of last season. I prefer others on the win end, but I would include this horse in my exactas and trifectas.

I believe SANSONE (#8) has the most upside of anyone in this field, and he'll feature prominently in my wagers. I'll let Marcus expand more on this half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou.

I put a different horse on top because I believe he'll offer better value. Many handicappers will prefer CHILLAX (#12) from that April 8 Keeneland maiden race even though he got a perfect trip. Yet I prefer FOUNTAIN LAKE (#3), who might have run just as well as the runner-up despite settling for third. He had to make an early move to get himself into contention from a tough post position, and then went extremely wide when rallying on the second turn. He didn't look like much when he first was unveiled last fall, but like many progeny of Improbable he has continued to improve with racing. He's drawn better than some other major contenders, and never seems to get any respect from the bettors.

Marcus's Response: 

A common morning-line making mistake is giving too much weight to a horse’s odds in their most recent start, and I have to think that’s at play with setting CHILLAX (#12) at 5-1. I thought right away he’d be favored and still do. And while David’s correct about his perfect trip, I do like the horse in a race like this – just not from post 12 at the price I expect.

The odds gap between Chillax and SANSONE (#8) seems like it has to be wider than 5-1 and 6-1. Imagine buying a horse for $1.35 million and seeing him eased in his career debut. That was Sansone last summer at Saratoga, but the colt looks like he’ll be all right. The March 19 comeback start, I can all but guarantee, was more about getting the colt back to racing than going all out to win. He also had a trickier trip than noted in the charts, galloped out strongly, and has come back with encouraging work (video) after being sent from Florida to Keeneland to put the finishing touches on his preparation for what, on a big stage, could easily be a maiden victory.

Put CROMWELL (#2) into the mix because there’s a great chance the track comes up sloppy and sealed, as it was when he hit his highest mark at Fair Grounds.

For wagers below: (D) = David; (M) = Marcus

Marcus's Analysis: 

GENEROUS LOVER (#10) should wind up a considerably more defined favorite than her morning-line price: Superior Beyers, winzzzz, bullet works, a jockey-trainer combo that always takes extra action with “live” horses. I’d guess connections have Ohio-bred stakes later in the year more than this race as the ultimate goal, and Generous Lover, while remarkably versatile, at heart is a two-turn horse in a one-turn race. I’m not super-against her, but she’s negative value, and there’s one horse in the race I’m absolutely sure has been aimed directly at this spot.

That’s SECRET STATEMENT (#1), whose high-water mark came in this same race a year ago – second-level allowance, one-turn mile on Derby Day. Well meant, she unfortunately ran into a Grade 1-class stakes horse, Scylla. Generous Lover is no Scylla. Twice Secret Statement has hit a peak in Churchill one-turn miles, and through the miracle of publicly available workout video, we can see that she turned in a truly excellent breeze April 22. I made her the day’s best bet in the standard DRF selection and analysis process, and will weight early-card opinions accordingly.

I’d rather be in the win and horizontal pools with this horse, but the race looks over-paced, and I’ll consider just trying to race-shape my way into a vertical play.

David's Response: 

My assessment of GENEROUS LOVER (#10) is nearly identical to that of Marcus. I can see some appeal in SECRET STATEMENT (#1) and will use if she is indeed a price in this spot.

My top pick is LEMON MUFFIN (#8), a horse I have never been high on, especially when company on the Oaks trail through last season. She just strikes me as a filly who should appreciate turning back to a one-turn mile. She often fails to finish off her longer races after making far turn moves, so the additional pace and shorter distance of this one-mile affair should suit her.

David's Analysis: 

California horses getting overpriced on the ML appears to be a theme through this weekend, but few lines are as obviously misguided as the 4-1 on GOAL ORIENTED (#5). Surely anyone closely following the game is aware that this horse is rumored to be the next star from the Bob Baffert stable. He was bet down to even-money on debut, and won handily despite showing some greenness in the early stages of the race. It isn't often that you see a Baffert debut runner win in that fashion, from last to first, so I understand the hype surrounding this horse. I just think he's so likely to be overbet in this spot. Here's a stunning DRF Formulator fact – Baffert is 12 for 24 (50%) with last-out debut winners stretching out to a dirt route in their second starts, but the $2 ROI is a mere $1.69.

Baffert's other runner TIZ SECURE (#9) is hardly without a chance, and he's far more likely to drift up in price from that 5-1 ML. I thought his debut victory at Santa Anita was pretty strong, if perhaps not quite as promising as that of Goal Oriented. The perplexing move to turf in his next start does give some cause for pause, but he's back in the right kind of race now. He's certainly bred to get this distance.

My top pick is BRACKET BUSTER (#2), another horse who should drift up from his ML price. He really improved with added distance during his 2-year-old season, and ran a lot better than the result would suggest over this track in the Street Sense last year. He got shuffled back to the quarter pole that day and couldn't recover against a field that included 3 eventual Derby starters. I thought his return in the Lexington was pretty encouraging, even not being the strongest edition, since this is not a barn that cranks horses up to win off the bench. According to Formulator, Victoria Oliver is 12 for 53 (23%, $3.48 ROI) second off a layoff of 120 to 240 days. I really like his workout video from April 24, and I'm expecting a forward move here.

Marcus's Response: 

I second everything David said about GOAL ORIENTED (#5) and TIZ SECURE (#9), though I’m less keen on Bracket Buster, who’s two good races came at the same “specialists” track. I also wonder about regression back in three weeks after hitting a peak returning from a long layoff.

My Bracket Buster is VALENTINIAN (#3), who, while not breaking any watches, has done good things in both his races, running a little green debuting in a Tampa route, where he hit the line with good energy and galloped out well, then finishing a fast-closing third with a difficult trip facing other winners at Keeneland. Horses trying to rally wide in Keeneland 1 1/16-mile races this spring basically were out of luck. Valentinian found himself out there around the bend and into the homestretch, and by the time he dived to the rail his defeat already was assured. Had the race ended, you know, at the actual finish line rather than the sixteenth pole, he wins. I think there’s further improvement forthcoming.

Surprised David didn’t mention VAMOS CARLITOS (#1), for whom he made a reasonable case in the Risen Star. No Lasix that day, Lasix this day, for what that’s worth.

Marcus's Analysis: 

Seemingly a million ways to go in this 14-horse restricted one-turn mile stakes race. I made selections before I saw a morning line and would not have pegged LIBERAL ARTS (#9) as a favorite as short as 3-1. Guess his unconscionable trip last out in a two-turn Oaklawn contest at this level was even more obvious than I realized. Liberal Arts, given absolutely no chance while hard held far behind a tepid pace, was set to win last time, and the way’s he’s recently worked, he’s still set to win, this time with tactics that give him a chance to do so.

While I do think he’s the right horse for this race, maybe he won’t be the right price, and if so, value will accrue to others with a real shot. CASTLE CHAOS (#4) isn’t necessarily a strong win candidate, and he worked his way into plans as a longer price to use underneath. At age 7, he probably won’t ever get back to his 2023 peak, but his last start, where Castle Chaos probably was moved to soon while returning from a three-month layoff, marked a step in the right direction.

How can NEW KING (#13) be as high as 12-1, Irad Ortiz riding a Brittany Russell-trained 4-year-old with competitive figures, a Grade 1 appearance (yes, a dud) two races ago, and a competitive first-for-trainer showing in the Laurel stakes in which he, like Castle Chaos, might’ve been asked too soon.

Somehow the chart person at Gulfstream neglected to mention the compromising trouble INVEIGLED (#11) found in his last start. David has an opinion here, so I’ll let him dive deeper into this horse.

In the end, I’m of two minds here: A potentially chaotic race but with a favorite I actually like.

David's Response: 

I agree with Marcus on the trip for LIBERAL ARTS (#9) last time being far from ideal. However, this horse has been extremely difficult to ride throughout much of career, often getting rank and making his jockeys look bad. A horse like that, in theory, should be well-suited to a one-turn mile where the pace is faster and field spreads out more. I'm still not totally sold that he can put it all together, and didn't want to take a short price finding out.

Like Marcus, I found it tough to love anyone in this race. ACCRETIVE (#3) seems to fit this spot really well after showing improvement to win the Evangeline Mile last time. I just worry that he could get overbet if the track comes up wet, a likely scenario. I don't really have any knocks against PATRIOT SPIRIT (#12), who should be suited by this slight turnback in distance to a one-turn race. While this is a large field, there really aren't that many horses who prefer to be vying for the front end, and he seems like the clear speed. He put in a huge effort last time when dueling through unreasonably fast splits before fading. He's drawn well outside and should fare better in this spot.

My top pick is INVEIGLED (#11), who I hope slips through the cracks in a wide open field. His 4-year-old debut suggested that he had really matured during the time away in the second half of last season, as he won convincingly over the talented but fragile Knightsbridge. As Marcus teed up, I hated the trip he got last time in the Army Mule. Paco Lopez made the decision to bury him in traffic behind the leaders and then got stuck in that spot, only getting free late via some frustrated maneuvering. I love this rider switch to Ben Curtis, and these aren't the kind of connections that will pull in support.

David's Analysis: 

There are too many viable options in this Distaff Turf Mile. The lack of pace has to make SPECIAL WAN (#10) somewhat dangerous, but I didn't really want her at a short price. I've just been a little underwhelmed by her North American form. I get that she didn’t receive an ideal trip in the First Lady last year, but I also don't want to give her too much credit for the last race at Gulfstream. The course was rock hard for the Honey Fox, and when it gets like that it tends to carry speed, just like it did for runner-up In Our Time, who I hardly consider to be a true graded stakes horse.

If I'm going to take a Gulfstream horse, I was far more impressed by MOVIN' ON UP (#2) in the Sand Springs. She's just totally exposed after two perfect trips, so perhaps FIVE TOWNS (#5) is the better horse to take from that race. She was wide on both turns, and didn't run that much worse than the winner. She now gets a significant rider upgrade, and she's handled some give in the ground before.

I don't have major knocks against the pair from the Jenny Wiley. That was a tougher field than this one, and the admirably consistent SACRED WISH (#6) once again ran well after going two to three-wide on the turns. POOLSIDE WITH SLIM (#8) would be my slight preference from that race at a better price. I can't figure out why her connections have been so reluctant to use her early speed lately, but I'm hoping that the switch to Joel Rosario prompts a change in tactics. She's quick enough to make the lead here if they want it.

The horse I really want to bet is SERENE SERAPH (#4). I know she looks overmatched on speed figures, but her North American debut was a far stronger performance than the 78 Beyer can capture. She failed to settle early, and tugged Junior Alvarado forward to go 4-wide on the clubhouse turn. She then proceeded with no cover, getting pushed into a 5-wide move around the far turn. Horses almost never win with those kinds of trips at Gulfstream, and she somehow pulled it off. The fact that she subsequently won (via legitimate DQ) on dirt, despite the fact that she has little pedigree for it, just confirms how well she's doing now. There's real talent here, and she figures to fly under the radar.

Marcus's Response: 

David makes a decent case for longshot Serene Seraph, and I wanted nothing to do with any horse coming out of a Gulfstream stakes other than Special Wan, who has been scratched. Not sure exactly why, but I worry about Sacred Wish taking a step back in this race, and yet I scratch into her as my top pick.

Marcus's Analysis: 

I don’t have a strong opinion here, other than GAMING (#6) being a stronger favorite than his 3-1 morning line. Gaming is fine and in a vacuum, sure, fire away, but I’d expect him to be something like 2-1, and I don’t view him as a likely enough winner to justify the price. If the cutback from routes helps Gaming it also aids BUILT (#2), whose one-turn win last October takes on at least a little added luster with runner-up Render Judgement making it into the Derby. My hesitation regarding Built: Has the turn-back come too late? The colt hit every stop on the Fair Grounds path to the Kentucky Derby. I think he’s had ample recovery time and can deliver a representative performance – which could win at a fair price – but lack full confidence.

I’m skeptical that the true worth of GATE TO WIRE (#5)’s Swale win doesn’t match the competitive figure he earned. But if Gate to Wire mainly benefited from closing into a fast pace in the Swale, he could do so again in this speed-packed contest. Gate to Wire flipped while being saddled for the Lafayette Stakes last month at Keeneland; the trainer said nothing was wrong with the horse, who didn’t miss any training, but the incident triggered an automatic scratch. In any case, that explains the two months between starts and the recent gap in his work pattern.

It's just more a race to get through than one on which I’m focused.

David's Response: 

I didn't see this race getting bet that way at all. I thought GAMING (#6) would drift up from his ML and be now better than third choice. Either way, I don't like him at all. The primary Baffert should be MADAKET ROAD (#1), who fits this race pretty well. I just don't see much upside with him. I think BUILT (#2) will be a popular option, and with good reason. He wanted no part of those longer Derby preps, and should relish this one-turn mile. I don't even think he regressed much through the preps, just getting exposed by the distance.

The horse I want to bet here is CALIFORNIA BURRITO (#3). Yes, he's achieved his best wins on synthetic, but he handled dirt just fine early on in his career. What's wrong with this runner-up finish to eventual Risen Star winner Magnitude here last fall? The two put on a show beating the rest of the field by 15 lengths. He's took advantage of some good trips at Turfway coming into the Ruby, but his journey there was far from ideal. He was sitting too close to a pace that collapsed and made the first decisive move to break the race open before taking some awkward strides when tiring late. He's had time to recover, and put in a fantastic workout in April 20, suggesting he's ready to bounce back. I also think he will adapt just fine to sitting farther off the pace in this spot.

David's Analysis: 

Marcus and I were on the right side of THINK BIG (#7) when he upset the Shakertown at 10-1, and that was probably the time to have him. He has clearly relished this switch to turf, and still has upward mobility in this division. I would just be surprised if he went off as high as 4-1. As for his rival from last time, I didn't see enough of an excuse for ROGUE LIGHTNING (#8) to turn the tables here.

I ultimately sided with RUN CARSON (#6), who isn't the easiest horse to trust. The gate has been an issue for him, as he's broken slowly in two of his last three starts. He was in such strong form late last year that a botched start couldn't even stop him when he won over this course and distance in November. He's been beaten twice since then, but I can forgive him for his loss off the layoff in the Shakertown. Kelsey Danner is much more effective when horses have a start under their belts, and that recent 33-second blowout at Turfway would suggest he's primed for better here.

Marcus's Response: 

David and I see this race nearly exactly the same way, though I might be more down on ROGUE LIGHTNING (#8) than he. Turf work video since his good second at Keeneland showed a sluggish horse. Maybe that’s just him.

The race unlocked for me when I figured out – and have some confidence in this – that RUN CARSON (#6) just can’t abide the Keeneland grass course. He’d be far from the first horse to fit that description.

No trainer claims older grass horses with more success than Mike Maker, and 7-year-old AMBIVALENT (#2) went out and won first after the Maker claim. This marks a significant step up in class, but I’d just be looking for the horse to run into the frame, not win. 

Marcus's Analysis: 

The Churchill Downs is the race of the undercard, if only by a narrow margin over the Derby City Distaff. I’m against morning-line favorite MINDFRAME (#7) – despite the fact I really liked this horse to win the Belmont last year and thought he was a cinch in the Haskell. I really don’t think distance got Mindframe beat in those races. The colt has an aversion to the crop and completely lost his composure when his jockey went to the stick in both races. I can understand coming back from a long layoff in a one-turn race, and the trainer entered two in Friday’s Alysheba, the two-turn option this weekend, but I don’t really get a second one-turn start for this horse. And that doesn’t get to a greater concern: Mindframe’s return from the long absence looked nothing like his brilliant career debut. I need to see he’s the same horse he was at 3 before jumping back on the train.

NYSOS (#10) would be a terrible bet without Mindframe in the race and might wind up being a bad one even with him in it, but I still landed here. At 2 and the start of his 3-year-old season, this horse looked like he could be the cream of the crop. He might still be. The evidence for that has presented itself in the morning. Work video from California reminds me of race replays from Nysos’s brief racing career, and I happened to catch his breeze at Churchill, which looked even better than the SoCal drills. He drew ideally for the way he wants to run and has the right jockey to dole out his pace in the right rhythm.

Probably prevailing opinion will have EXTRA ANEJO (#6) regressing here after returning from a seven-month layoff with the best – or close to the best – race of his four-calendar-year career. That’s not my opinion. Perhaps Extra Anejo, as has happened in all his form cycles, tails off through the summer, but I expect him to run right back to his Commonwealth. That might not be good enough, but a one-turn mile suits Extra Anejo better than seven furlongs, he should get a good trip, and he’ll be a very square price.

MULLIKIN (#11) has drawn rave reviews from his trainer preparing for his first start since December. Brisset thinks he’ll fire fresh, and Mullikin’s best race clearly contends. The inside draw, to me, ruins BANISHING’S (#2) chances, and one wonders in any case how long he can keep this up: Four top efforts already in 2025, this from a former claimer. That leaves BOOK’EM DANNO (#3) as the other horse I’d consider. I do wonder if his three big figures last year over-rate the horse to some extent, and there’s been some uncertainty regarding the start of his season, the initial plan – a prep, then a trip to Dubai – abandoned for, apparently, this route. He does figure to be the overlooked contender and is useable because of that.

David's Response: 

Like Marcus, I'm puzzled by this placement for MINDFRAME (#7) and don't view it as a good sign. He's never been managed like a sprinter before, nor does he look like one physically. He's not for me. I'm way more afraid of NYSOS (#10), but I also feel that he's going to be a clear favorite in this race. There's just so much buzz about his return and the way he's training into it. He may prove to be on another level if he progresses as a 4-year-old, but I just think he's going to be poor value when all is said and done.

I did give serious thought to both BANISHING (#2) and BOOK'EM DANNO (#3). You would think the former is going to turn back into a pumpkin at some point, but David Jacobson does have a knack for keeping these types in great form. I found this fascinating trainer stat in Formulator for Jacobson, who is 25 for 88 (28%, $2.33 ROI) with 4YO+ horses coming off a career-best Beyer in their last race – a poor stat for most barns. As for Book'em Danno, I'm just concerned that he's no longer as sharp as he was in the summer of last year, as his loss of early speed would suggest.

I want MULLIKIN (#11). He's not a horse I was expecting to like in this spot, but I have much more respect for his 2024 campaign in retrospect. He just shows up with a solid effort every time, and has proven that 7 furlongs is the ideal distance for him, which is more than many of his rivals can claim. I was also swayed by his recent workout in company with World Record on April 17, where he seemed to be toying with a horse who came back to run 6F in sub-1:08 on Thursday. He drew perfectly outside of all the other speed, and I don't mind that Prat jumps off to ride Nysos. It's just going to help the price on the one I like better.

David and Marcus's Pick-5

The two analysts combine their opinions to come up with an all-stakes Pick-5 ending in the Derby. We usually would do an ABC wager here, but we're going caveman-style for this daunting sequence – one ticket (Total wager: $216)

R8: 10,11
R9: 1,2,5,7
R10: 1,2,11
R11: 1,2,4,7,8,10
R12: 8,18,19

David's Analysis: 

I don’t know if this is a deserving Grade 1 – separate topic – but it sure is a fascinating race to handicap. I could make cases for many runners, but I'll restrict my analysis here to the three I like best.

Potential favorite ZULU KINGDOM (#7) put in a terrific effort off the layoff last time at Tampa. I was never the biggest fan of this horse during his 2-year-old season, but his return last time suggests he may have taken his game to the next level. He dueled for the lead through some enterprising fractions and kicked on once challenged as the other speeds dropped away. He doesn't mind give in the ground, but he has to avoid getting caught up in another hot pace in this spot.

I'll be interested to see what the public does with TEST SCORE (#5). He was inexplicably ignored last time in the Transylvania, but it's hard to believe he'll get disrespected again, as the 10-1 ML would suggest. I thought that was a pretty convincing victory, as he always traveled like a winner and never looked to be getting reeled in once he hit the front. He handled some give in the ground that day, and just feels like the most reliable option in this field. Anything above 9-2 on him would be fair value in my book.

But my main value play is WARLANDER (#1). I liked this horse's first couple of starts as a 2-year-old, particularly the Kentucky Downs victory where he scooted up the inside and responded to a late challenge from the talented Flying Mohawk. His Bourbon was mildly disappointing, but he was given time to mature since then. Progeny of Kitten's Joy tend to improve with maturity, and this colt's return effort at Keeneland suggests that he may have really progressed during the time away. I say may, because we never really got to truly find out. He was stuck 3 to 4-wide around both turns, moving forward without cover on the backstretch and losing position into the lane. Considering that nightmare journey, he actually was staying on well late to pick up fifth. Steve Asmussen is unafraid to press right on into this ambitious spot, and now he draws a much better post with a chance to confirm that suspected development.

Marcus's Response: 

Agree with David’s assessment of both TEST SCORE (#5) and ZULU KINGDOM (#7), and he makes a decent case for WARLANDER (#1), even if I can’t quite get there.

While Test Score did travel sweetly through the Transylvania, SCIPIO (#2) had a much rougher go of things and still finished up well. This horse looks like he’s been tricky: Various types of trips, trouble line after trouble line, blinkers off. He’s been heavily campaigned, but I have him finally getting the hang of things more than coming into this start worn out by the schedule: He worked back 12 days after the Transy and breezed twice between starts. This colt had enough brilliance to get up in a Santa Anita sprint two back but probably turns out better as a miler.

Marcus's Analysis: 

The less said about the morning line in a tremendous renewal of the Derby City Distaff the better. We’ll leave it with KOPION (#2) at 8-1. She looks more like the favorite than the co-fourth choice. No doubt, Kopion has turned into an incredible horse, and performances this year better than the one she delivered in the Santa Monica have been few and far between. Nonetheless, I’m against Kopion. Yes, she’s working like a good thing, but her work pattern since the Santa Monica has lacked consistency, as has race planning for Kopion, who was supposed to try a two-turn race, then was rerouted to the Madison at Keeneland, and, finally, pointed here. Kopion doesn’t need the lead, but if she doesn’t try to beat the other speed to the punch – and there’s a lot of it outside her – she’ll race from behind horses and take dirt for the first time in her career. I won’t be surprised if Kopion wins – or runs far below expectations.

I had to finalize published selections for this race on April 27, and five days later, I have a considerably less favorable opinion of VAHVA (#7). I get the sense that even if Vahva gets backs to her peak this year, it won’t come Saturday, and she’s more a defensive use than a focus for me.

WAYS AND MEANS (#8) worked for the first time this winter on March 9, about five weeks later than SCYLLA (#1) breezed for the first time this year, so when trainer Chad Brown says he barely got Ways and Means ready for this start, I believe him. She feels more like a horse for the Phipps at Saratoga next month than the likely winner of the Derby City Distaff.

Scylla, if she can find room, will get a favorable trip closing into a strong pace. If the rain comes, I believe she’ll run well on a wet track. And Scylla has unassailable credentials as a spring and summer Churchill horse – she’s 4-4 here, all races in May or June. Speaking of trainer quotes, Bill Mott flat out confirmed what I thought about Scylla’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, that she got the wrong trip racing much too close to the pace. She can route in a pinch but this mare is a natural one-run stalker / closer in longer one-turn races. A very untimely and very minor temperature cost her a start in the Madison at Keeneland, but Scylla hasn’t lost her edge and can win at a fair price.

I’m also interested, to a lesser extent but a longer price, on finding out whether POSITANO SUNSET (#11) can run right back to her surprise victory in the Madison. I think there’s a reasonable case she does, and the race could shape her way.

David's Response: 

I spent quite a bit of time on this impossible race and finally decided that MY MANE SQUEEZE (#13) was the best value option, only to read Dave Grening's reporting hours later that she was expected to scratch from this race. If they reverse course and run her she's one I will definitely upgrade, but that doesn't seem likely. On that subject, there should be 4 or more scratches in this race, so let's wait to get too caught up in the pace scenario.

I'm no longer trying too hard to beat KOPION (#2). I couldn't understand how she got dismissed at 37-1 in the La Brea based on what she had done around one-turn early in her career, and she confirmed that decisive victory was no fluke when she improved upon it in the Santa Monica. I suppose a wet track, the travel, and an inside post are potential obstacles, but she just seems so good right now. I doubt any of it will matter much.

The horse I want to upgrade after reassessing this race is POSITANO SUNSET (#11). She's a bit of a last time was the time type, but it's not as if that improvement came from nowhere. She had been sneaking up on Vahva and other quality fillies last season, and has seemingly continued that improvement as a 5-year-old. She got a great trip to win the Madison, but it's not like she's going to be a much shorter price here even with that victory under her belt.

David's Analysis: 

This is another race that looked wide open at first glance, but through the handicapping process, was surprisingly easy to narrow down to a few runners. I'll be interested to hear Marcus's case for RUNNING BEE (#7), but I ended up liking him the least of the Chad Brown trio. I've just never really bought into the idea that he's a true Grade 1 performer, and I thought he was pretty fortunate last time when getting an absolutely perfect trip closing into a fast pace.

Chad's other two runners interest me much more. I wish SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (#10) had drawn a better post position, because it's easy to see him getting hung wide again from this draw. That was the problem last time in the Muniz, as he got stuck 3 to 4-wide around both turns in a race that was dominated by two horses who rode the rail. He's another who I didn't necessarily view as a Grade 1 horse last year, but he's really stepped up his game recently, running a deceptively strong fifth in the G1 Turf Mile last fall before winning the G1 Pegasus this year. If he is able to pull a trip, I think they all have him to beat.

I ultimately found REDISTRICTING (#4) most appealing of the Chads for a couple of reasons. While he didn't run as well as his stablemate in the Muniz, the trip didn't suit his strengths. He prefers to get held up and produce a late burst in the lane, and coming off cover on the far turn just wasn't the right strategy. He figures to get covered up from this draw, and I don't think he'll mind a little cut in the ground given his bloodlines. The 10-1 ML is perhaps a tad high, but I still don't think he'll be among the favorites.

My top pick is GOLD PHOENIX (#2), who I'm a little more confident will go off closer to that 10-1 ML price. This horse has produced some of his best efforts going marathon distances, including a pair of excellent fourth-place finishes in the BC Turf the last two years. yet he's also capable of going shorter, as evidenced by his victory in the G1 Kilroe mile a couple of years ago. He was going to be more of a factor in last year's Eddie Read at this distance had he not gotten buried in traffic in the lane. He got in a fitness-building prep last time, and notably gets a significant rider upgrade to Umberto Rispoli for this trip east.

Marcus's Response: 

Absolutely, Running Bee is not a Grade 1 horse, but then neither was Spirit of St Louis before he won the Pegasus, and I foresee a lot of punching down in this race. I think Running Bee can hit a little harder than even his improved recent form. He’s a 6-year-old, the time when a lot of English Channel’s better offspring hit their peak. He’s also going to sit closer to the front – probably only a length or two off a slow tempo – than the other two Browns, and horses could struggle to produce much of a burst if the forecast proves accurate.

CAMEO PERFORMANCE (#8) had the same impediments as Spirit of St Louis in the Muniz and performed better, but I’m torn on him. The trainer says no Lasix isn’t an issue, and I believe him. And while the Muniz seemed to come out of nowhere, Cameo Performance was making his first start at age 4 and appeared to have trained well over the winter.

Poor INTEGRATION (#1) – this is a field he theoretically could handle (though I question whether he would even under optimal conditions), but this is another horse who goes best on firmer footing.

Marcus's Analysis: 

Too much ink (or too many bytes) already has been spilled on the Derby (all over DRF.com) for another belabored assessment here. The race has changed since being drawn with major pace factor Rodriguez coming out. Grande, who didn’t do much for me, also has been withdrawn, and talk abounds that another pace player will be scratched before the Derby comes upon is. No matter – the leaders still are going to be flying, and none of the horses likely to be in the vanguard truly interest me – EAST AVENUE (#12) the lone possible exception.

I know David sees this Derby as far more open to a winner than I do. Boringly, I have victory going either to JOURNALISM (#8) and SOVEREIGNTY (#18). Sovereignty should be second choice, but someone posited Sandman filling that role – he’s the horse with the name most likely to attract Derby bettors who, shall we say, lean less on analysis than more hardened gamblers.

BAEZA (#21) holds some appeal for me, but I wonder if he’ll show just enough pace to get hung wide into the first turn, and this horse seems to have a surprisingly large following. I’d guess BURNHAM SQUARE (#9) offers much better value than Baeza. I initially downgraded the Blue Grass, but as the Keeneland meet wore on, and I saw how difficult it was to produce any sort of decent closing time on a laboring surface, I revised my thoughts. And seeing Burnham Square in the flesh – the horse must weigh 10 pounds less than Journalism – it does appear he took that demanding effort and came back ready for more.

Sovereignty will get my win money. Exotics focus on my big two with closers scattered beneath them.

David's Response: 

I have no knocks against JOURNALISM (#8) and frankly don't even think 3-1 is a terrible price on him. I'm far less positive on the other horses that figure to take money, and if I'm going to use horses around this legitimate favorite, I want to work prices into the mix.

The horse that I expect to offer the best value – so of course my top pick – is CHUNK OF GOLD (#19). His résumé is light, but I think he's run better than the bare result would suggest in each of his stakes attempts. He closed into a slow pace in the Leonatus, then handled the switch to dirt with remarkable professionalism in the Risen Star, overcoming quarter pole traffic to re-rally into second. And his final prep in the Louisiana Derby was a much stronger effort than it appears, since he was in attendance to a fast pace that fell apart. He seems like one that still has room for improvement on the way in, and his demeanor gives me confidence that he'll be able to work out the right trip from mid-pack. Sure, Chunk of Gold needs to improve again and Journalism needs to encounter traffic or regress, but the price should compensate for all of those uncertainties.

When handicapping this race, I ended up liking FINAL GAMBIT (#3) way more than I had expected. His dirt workouts now compared to what I saw from early in his career suggest that he has totally transformed through racing. I'm not too worried about the switch to dirt having watched him train over the surface. For me, he's been one of the stars of this week. And he's also a horse who might have serious upside stretching out to 10 furlongs, which is hard to say about too many of these.

I also want to throw LUXOR CAFE (#7) in there if he's around 12-1 to 15-1. I don't know that he's quite this good, but he has shown amazing finishing ability in Japan. He's come home in sub-24 for his final 400 meters in a few of those victories overseas, and I can envision him flying late if he can get comfortable sitting farther off the pace than he is accustomed.

I'll be fooling around with some combination of those 3 prices and, of course, the favorite.

David's Analysis: 

My primary opinion in this first-level allowance is that I don't want PATCH ADAMS (#11), especially if he actually does go favored in this race. This horse has generally been a disappointment, failing to run to his wagering support in 3 of his 4 career starts. He does have that 98 Beyer maiden victory that seemingly makes him formidable here, and turning back in distance is supposed to work for him. Yet that maiden romp looks flimsier in retrospect. Most runbacks from that race, with a few exceptions, have not flattered the form. More importantly Patch Adams himself was inexplicably dull in the Tampa Bay Derby last time. Sure he was a little wide, but he still had no answer when called upon, suggesting that it wasn't distance that was the issue that day. He's not for me.

I believe BIG TRUZZ (#14) is the most likely winner on the basis of his dazzling Keeneland debut. That was a loaded field on paper, and he absolutely buried them, displaying an excellent turn of foot off the far turn to draw away. The Beyer came back as an 88, but I think that number could have been higher. Interestingly, Brian Lynch has outstanding stats with horses like this. According to Formulator, Lynch is 5 for 7 (71%, $5.12 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints over 5 years. He has a good chance to make it 6 for 8.

I put ROMANESQUE (#9) on top because he's going to be a bigger price in the face of those two rivals despite going out for the powerful Baffert stable. I believe this horse has been underrated in his own barn all along. He beat Rodriguez fair and square on debut, and then was basically ridden to lose the San Vicente next time, restrained early to make sure Barnes got a soft trip. I don't love that he's been off since then, forgotten as one of the Baffert stable's professional workmates. Yet at least he's been working consistently. He's the type that is never going to blow you away in the mornings, that's just going to ensure a fair price, and I like what I've seen in the afternoons.

Marcus's Response: 

I remembered thinking that I, too, had little interest in PATCH ADAMS (#11), who I definitely think will be favored here – and then found I’d tabbed him second. Hmm. He does need the cutback, and I do believe his win here last fall was legitimately strong, but there are signs of wilting form.

I, too, was mightily impressed with BIG TRUZZ (#14), but, at the risk of sounding like a contemporary trainer, why run a horse this good back in three weeks? A debut performance that strong typically, with today’s stock, requires a longer break into the second race. The owner of this horse has steered Owen Almighty, a Derby entrant, in a different direction than the trainer wanted for a few months, and I do wonder if the quick return – to run on Derby Day – comes from a similar dynamic.

On the bare form alone, JACK’S PROMISE (#1) would merit a look, so drastically has he improved in his last two starts. I happened to be stationed on the fifth floor on the morning of April 27 watching training and saw Jack’s Promise work, and I say with some confidence the fast half-mile time, 46.40, does not do the drill justice. The horse galloped out like his tail was on fire, lending credence to the thought that whatever wellspring of talent got tapped late this winter has continued flowing.

Marcus's Analysis: 

PURSUITNEVERSLEEPS (#12) ran a bang-up debut over six furlongs and showed in his finish and on the gallop out that the longer stretch and added furlong he gets in his second start will suit him better than the circumstances of his first start. Add to that very favorable workout video at Churchill and I see a favorite I’m not interested in taking a firm stand against.

Still, EXCITE (#10), while having the stride of a turf horse, has worked very well on dirt, and I don’t think Mr. Mott, whose weekend got off to a good start Friday, tries a different surface here just as a stab.

Frankly, I struggled to come up with much beyond the top two. I’m less interested casting about for a third horse than keying on Pursuitneversleeps and, to a lesser extent, Excite.

David's Response: 

It's always tough to read pace scenarios in maiden races, but boy does it feel like there's a ton of speed in here. Perhaps that will hurt PURSUITNEVERSLEEPS (#12) less than the other short prices, but I could see this one melting down.

EXCITE (#10) is hardly an easy horse to trust as he tries dirt for the first time, but I would expect Joel Rosario to just drop anchor early and try to come running late. As Marcus noted, he has the high-striding action of a turf horse, but he doesn't look all that comfortable running over turf in the afternoons and his pedigree is primarily dirt-oriented.