Five horses before race-day scratches, so not much you can do with this, but to me, #3 A Real Jewel is the most likely winner by a decent margin, though I do expect her to be well supported, perhaps to the level of favoritism. While layoffs crop up throughout her career, she’s a horse who has run well fresh: Her win for a $25K claiming price in May 2023 came after a break comparable to this one. Last two on turf (she nearly won her comeback run in that brief form cycle) but mare is at least as good on dirt, and have to believe she’s been aimed at this spot for a while now. Sets up shop just outside behind inside speed #2 Just a Little Luck, who is a very competitive racehorse but, in the end, doesn’t want to go more than 5 ½ furlongs if she takes any kind of pressure. #6 Shanghai Surprise at 8-1 is the longest price among the quintet – but why? She “classes up” adequately and while coming out of “hook” races at Los Al, she’s not hapless over six furlongs. 

Going for it in the Pick 5 with two singles, including A Real Jewel to start things off.

Absolute muddle of a short-field turf route with zero real pace entered. You should get paid just for picking the early leader! If every horse ran this race under ideal circumstances, #5 Dandy Man Shines would win – his baseline is just a half-tick better than the others. But there’s a reason he’s still eligible for this N2X condition: Namely, limitations weigh down that marginal superiority, and DMS easily could be bet lower than the morning line. This is a situation where it’s okay to use the favorite defensively (his price won’t be starkly out of line with his chance to win) but, especially coming off that flat Wickerr. I couldn’t advocate taking a shortish win price. You could make the case #2 Sarwar last out just tired at the end of a 1 1/8-mile contest while racing over a distance farther than he truly wants in his first start back from a layoff, and after making a middle move into a soft pace. But, man, did he stop the last half-furlong, nearly eased across the wire with zero gallop out. He should improve, might prove capable of sticking close to whomever leads, maybe even leading himself, and did win his N1X going one mile at DMR while making his second start after a layoff following a comeback at 1 1/8 miles. Giving him the narrow call. Sarwar is one among four coming out of the same weird, paceless July 25 Del Mar race at this level, which #6 Reiquest won not because of definitive superiority, but because of slightly superior luck. And I would rather have a potentially progressive horse like #4 Malibu Coast at his listed price of 8-1 than #3 Ah Geez were he really as short as the 3-1 morning-line odds.

I doubt #6 Journey d’Oro goes off as short as 8-5, the morning-line price, and there’s a decent chance he’s not even favored. If you go back and look at the past performances of the horses he beat debuting two back at Los Al, you will see why he was an odds-on favorite there. Unfortunately, I fear much of the money predicted to go to JDO will wind up on the horse I like to win this, #1 Lettheliquortalk, listed at 5-1, possibly half that price. Letheliquortalk ran his best race when fresh in February and did so while pinned along the rail – good to know since he breaks from the fence here. After the win, he was used on a strong pace in a race won by his stablemate, and the two-turn experiment before the layoff showed that this is a one-turn horse. I strongly suspect he’s been aimed for this very spot for quite some time and will run to his best form, which, to me, puts him in a tier of his own here. #4 Come Out Fighting will be discounted and stands a decent chance of outrunning his win odds. His last-out Del Mar start seems like nothing more than a prep (in too tough in a race too long) for this far more suitable spot, and he strikes me as a horse well suited to a stalk-and-pounce trip going 5 ½ furlongs. #2 Smokem Ez fits well enough but has the unfortunate habit of always breaking poorly, making him a tough take on the win end.

Five of the eight 2-year-old maidens here I can’t make any case for. The morning line has first-timer #8 Aransas Pass the favorite, which is possible, though I don’t see why #9 Thought Process won’t take plenty of betting. Thought Process went evenly on dirt in her debut while at least showing competence as a racehorse. The sire, Collected, is above average with turf horses, and Thought Process is the first foal to race from a dam who was 100-percent a grass horse, the pedigree angle carrying more weight than the trainer pattern: P D’Amato over the last five years has started only four 2-year-old maidens going from a dirt debut into a turf route, best finishes among them two fourths and a third. Michael McCarthy, Aransas Pass’s trainer, runs a huge number of 2-year-old first-timers in Del Mar turf routes, a group that has produced a steady stream of winners. McCarthy went 4-12 during the 2023 meeting in such circumstances, and though he is 4-0-0-0 so far this meet, Aransas Pass, from the look of workouts available on video, debuts ready to rock and roll. But off the workout video, I have to side with #7 Schilfied. The trainer’s record with first-timers in turf-route MSWs is a horror show, but the win odds tell us nearly none of those had much of a chance. This filly, who trains in a hood, is a strapping beast who goes powerfully and, from all appearances, with intent. Was quite taken with her July 25 work, where she had no trouble staying with Big George, a fairly talented 4-year-old. The morning line suggests the forward training and physically advanced presence has not gone unnoticed, but Schilflied almost has to be a fair price. Wouldn’t see the need to use more than three in multi-race wagers.

This boils down to whether you’re with #2 Lord Sheldon, who figures to be bet below his morning-line odds, or against him. He’s not a favorite to use defensively: Either back him with the expectation that he’s being dropped for the win and has enough in the tank that his obvious on-paper advantage translates to the racecourse, or toss him from your plans. The drop comes too swiftly and sharply for my taste, though Aug. 10 workout video doesn’t offer any obvious clues. On the one hand, he raced for a $20,000 tag in January, making this $12.5K price easier to stomach, but on the other he was at least mildly competitive for $62,500 in his most recent outing. #6 Funkenstein is being repatriated to SoCal from the East Coast (usually the pipeline flows the other way) and races fresh on a very encouraging workout pattern for a horse at this level. His Aug. 4 team workout with Taishan, a higher-quality horse, struck me as quite good for an aging claiming horse. At his best, he’s good enough, though this is the mildest of calls. Same with #5 Royal Act, another horse on a circuit switch to race first off the claim. The trainer is not proficient with first-claimed horses, but Royal Act faced tougher competition in Kentucky, and he, too, runs fresh. #7 Departure needs to clear #4 Abadon to obtain his preferred spot on the engine, and that might not be easy.  

I don’t agree with the morning line and believe 1 Fleet Feet will be favored. Not that he looks strong. In fact, no one in the race save Fleet Feet in his most recent start has come particularly close to the Beyer par, 89. Fleet Feet is 1-14, but in his defense he spent most of his career running in races other than turf sprints, his strong suit. He looks like a tricky ride: They finally got him back a bit off the pace a bit last time, which led to a much better finish, the horse who nipped him for win slipping through along the fence. As with Dandy Man Shines in race 2, Fleet Feet feels like a horse to lean against but not ignore. I feel pretty good about 8 Red Pill as a top pick, especially if he sidles up close to that 5-1 morning line. He’s a bowling ball of a gelding, a twice started horse with a LOT of speed, although – and this is one reason to like him – in his Aug. 7 work with Grade 1-class Senor Buscador he actually allowed the rider to take a hold on the turn and waited patiently for Buscador to catch up for the stretch run. While Buscador eventually wore him down, Red Pill showed his speed in upper stretch initially turning him back. The five furlongs definitely is a plus, and I think turf helps him, too. He’s by grass influence American Pharoah and has the very high knee action many folks associate with a horse better suited to grass than dirt. He’s drawn outside the other speed, and I’m not sure they’ll want News at Ten going to the front this time, while Boss Sully doesn’t have Red Pill’s speed. #6 Tejon Pass can be considered as a backup in multi-race wagers and as a potential boost to vertical exotic payoffs as a grass-bred horse making his turf debut. His workmate Egon blew him away past the wire and into the club turn at the end of their Aug. 11 work, but in upper stretch it was Tejon Pass who had the much quicker turn of foot, opening a couple lengths before his mate got rolling.

Another race where I disagree with the line (granted, the linemaker could be working with more information than I have) in that I’d make #2 Kalea Bay the shorter price than his Baffert-trained stablemate #5 Citizen Bull as well as the favorite. The two worked together Aug. 10, and you will note that Kalea Bay now has worked from the gate three times in his last four breezes. There’s a reason for that – he doesn’t break well. Even on Aug. 10, when he was a little better, Kalea Bay just stood there for a beat after the doors opened, which could lead to problems starting off at this short 5 ½-furlong trip. I had him outworking Citizen Bull and more broadly liked his work video better than CB, and Kalea Bay comes from a strong family that includes the Grade 1-winning sprinter Constellation. Realizing that trainer John Shirreffs is 1-34 over the last five years with 2-year-old first-time starters, and that the barn doesn’t push young horses hard into their first race, #4 Post Time still gets my vote as a top selection, a horse perhaps worth a play. This colt can run, of that I feel certain after watching workout video, and he was much better coming out of the gate than Kalea Bay. He has a bit of a route look to him but has shown decent speed, and the gallop-out in the last work suggests connections might be looking for something competitive first time out. #1 Unique Power the second foal to race from the top-class mare Unique Bella. Homebred failed to meet a $650,000 reserve at auction. Only one work video, from July, and it was solid enough one can’t rule him out. #7 Power Play looks like a handful to control – I’d probably fade him. #3 Smash It was said to stumble at the start last time, but that was closer to a bobble than a stumble, though he did run into a flashy Baffert charge who came right back to win the Best Pal. I could see this as a two “As” proposition in multi-race wagers but with backups as coverage.

#6 Medoro won’t be as high as 5-1, I don’t believe, but she still could offer a fair price in the Del Mar Oaks, a softish Grade 1. I toyed with making three of the top four picks the first choice, #3 Whiskey Decision the filly who was left out of that mix. Whiskey Decision beat a modest bunch two races back at Churchill and could not have gotten a better trip in the Christina. Making her Graded stakes debut while shipping for the first time, Whiskey Decision is not for me, though she will understandably have her supporters. It’s #8 Sea Dancer, who has little chance to win, holding the key to this race, as she’s the only horse I can see putting pressure on #1 Iscreamuscream. Iscreamuscream held very well winning the one-mile San Clemente over this course, though a soft pace down the backstretch helped her cause. The stretch from one mile out to 1 1/8 miles forms the obvious question, and something like the morning-line price ought to invite skepticism. Medoro ran better than the San Clemente runner-up and turned in a performance comparable to the winner’s. Her move at the three-eighths to race up into a contending position looked very sharp – the filly has gears – but in the end got her stuck behind a wall of horses as the eventual second-place finisher loomed outside to hold her in. Medoro got out just a little too late to find full stride while running like a filly who can do better with an added furlong. She has the pedigree for the trip, and with a sharper start, she can stick close enough to Iscreamuscream to allow her superior stamina to carry the day. #6 Buchu tempted, as she has become a forgotten horse and has run as fast as any of these at her peak. Her finish last out wasn’t bad, but the filly just has lacked spark since her 2024 debut.

Did you like race 5? Good, because this is the second division of it. And let me tell you, the second division looks as murky as the first. I have a hard time seeing #5 Upstart Yankee and #7 Dos Vicios, but the other six entrants? Can’t rule any of them out. #1 Table for Ten generally has raced as a turf horse but did win some 13 months ago on the dirt at Pleasanton. Now, his more recent dirt start there produced an utter dud, and this seems clearly to be an 8-year-old in decline, but he sparked back to life earlier this month, albeit on turf, and connections run him right back trying to catch the gelding while he’s going better again. Looks like he’s made one start among 40 for a claiming price this low, and that race he won by five lengths. #6 Zimba Warrior was dropped last out off the claim two back but performed well enough to earn a class boost back to the price for which he was taken. The horse who beat him last time was a well-meant class dropper who got first run, though ZW, easily that race’s fastest finisher, nearly reeled him in. Could see him doing even a touch better second time for this barn. Both those horses on the morning line offer appealing odds, but they each could come down, too, since #2 Tiz Tok and #3 Stop and a Tres could end up softer than forecast in the betting market. Those two strike me as horses more likely to take a step back than hold their recent top form.

Might as well end the day playing the same theme running throughout this card – very, very challenging contest. As with so many of these races, I find it difficult to actively “like” any of these entrants. Have the Steve Knapp-trained pair of #3 Tiergareten and #2 Aventapp atop the contender board, though with no strong conviction. The morning line has these two close in price but I’d guess Aventapp comes out the meaningfully shorter price. The mare is 5-0-0-0 at Del Mar, but I doubt that stems from a particular dislike for the course. Last out, fifth at this level and claimed from the race, she found traffic pretty much from the 7/16 pole most of the way home, though Aventapp did not finish with any notable flourish. On paper there’s too much pace entered for them not to go hard up front, and that also helps Tiergarten, who runs back on just eight days’ rest, which I don’t mind. The thing with Tiergarten is she’s not exposed as a turf sprinter having mainly raced in grass routes, and I think she might be all right as a one-run closer. She certainly faced strong opposition than this in the only turf sprint on her recent form, the start in May at Santa Anita, where she closed with interest and was short of room when gaining on the leaders through the final 50 yards. #4 Dancing Soul does well on the DMR course and goes as least as fast on turf as dirt, but she’s a one-way speed horse, chances strictly dependent on not getting speed-dueled into submission. #8 Adaay in Asia gets blinkers off the claim. Doesn’t do much for me. Showed no spark on the suspicious drop last out, and not forecasting much of a rebound.