Race 1

Maiden 2-year-old fillies sprint five furlongs on turf. It’s a messy race to handicap. Top choice #3 South Bay may or may not be cranked for her debut; her July 27 gate work was not as good as it looks on paper. South Bay, sired by high-percent debut stallion Omaha Beach, is the one to beat, but she is hardly invincible.

First-time starter #4 Miss Donna has trained well; her fast gate work July 25 indicates positive intent. #7 Hypergamy is an American Pharoah filly whose graded stakes-winning dam won her career debut by open lengths. #6 Radiant View is by Caravaggio, whose 2yo debut progeny have won at a 21 percent clip; the dam of Radiant View won her career debut by six lengths. #1 Jewlz, fourth in her debut, is the only experienced runner in the field. Second-start maidens trained by Peter Miller win three times as often as debut runners trained by Miller.

In an apparently wide-open race, betting strategy will be limited to multi-race wagers. It’s a $23 play in the pick three (50-cent minimum) and $30 play in the early pick five (50-cent min).

Among the four top contenders in this maiden-40 sprint, #5 Charlie Foxtrot is the most reliable. He is a first-time gelding dropping in class, with speed figures close to par for the level. This race is his first in three months; he ran well in his debut so he does fire fresh. Charlie Foxtrot is listed 3-1.

However, three others merit attention. Program favorite #1 Veracruz has trained well since claimed from his forgettable debut on turf. New trainer John Sadler has always done well with first-off-the-claim maidens. #8 Kid Dynasty returns to his preferred sprint trip, and #6 Magic Connection adds blinkers, drops in class, switches surfaces, and is a first-time gelding. Plenty reasons for Magic Connection to improve second time out.

Betting strategy will key top choice Charlie Foxtrot and 8-1 longshot Magic Connection. It’s a $16 play in the exacta ($1 min) insisting on a win by one or the other, with logical contenders sprinkled in the two-hole.

#7 Packs a Wahlop is likely to start favored in this N2X turf marathon, but the gamble is #8 Lammas, a 13-time winner who has won at this level and was claimed last out by high-percent first-off-the-claim trainer Jeff Mullins. Although a mile and three-eighths will be the longest distance of his career, Lammas ran well at a mile and one-quarter in Europe. His N2X win two back at a mile is fast enough to upset the favorite. Lammas is listed at 6-1, but likely to drop.

Packs a Wahlop returns to preferred turf footing after a misfire on dirt; the G2-placed pace-presser enters with an advantage in running style. He will be positioned in front of Lammas, and if he reproduces his runner-up finish two back could be gone. However, the gamble is that Lammas will wear him down. In a race with two main contenders, the play is the higher odds. Lammas is a “single” in the pick three and pick five wagers that began in race 1.

Betting strategy is a simple win bet on Lammas if the price is right, and a $16 play in the exacta that tosses the favorite due to minimal value. Packs a Wahlop will be underlaid. win or lose. The exacta keys Lammas with #1 Dicey Mo Chara, #2 Lahaina Flavor, #4 Irish Prophet and #6 British Isles.

Maiden-20 sprints occasionally come up deep, like this one. Fast-working #6 Pocket Venus makes her debut for trainer Mark Glatt, who won with 2 of his last 5 maiden-20 firsters. On the flip side, however, progeny of stallion Spun to Run are only 3-for-73 first time out. #3 Perfect Smile ran well last out, runner-up despite an imperfect start. Finally, a pair of droppers trained by Geroge Papaprodromou merit consideration. They are #4 Kiss Me Kado and potential pacesetter #9 Ponytail Pete.

Betting strategy is a $16 play in the middle pick four (50-cent min). The sequence begins with a four-deep spread.

#6 Guy Named Joe is supposed to win this N2L claiming turf mile. It’s his first try at the lowest class level for turf runners; the speed figures he has been earning vs. tougher company match or exceed par for this level. There’s a reason Guy Named Joe is the 5-2 favorite. It's because he is the most probable winner However, #9 Mongolian Altai will be making his first start since moving to improvement trainer Librado Barocio. The trainer’s acquisitions via private sale or claim often improve. The outside post does Mongolian Altai no favors, but at 6-1 in the program he is worth inclusion.

Betting strategy is a $21.50 play in the trifecta (50-cent min) that insists on a win by Guy Named Joe or Mongolian Altai.

A gaggle of well-regarded 2-year-old maiden fillies will race five and one-half furlongs; #6 Misstrial looked good working from the gate July 25. Bob Baffert-trained 2yos usually fire first out, and Constitution 2yo progeny have won 15 percent first time out.

#3 Umbralle is an Into Mischief filly produced by superstar Unique Bella; Umbralle looked decent working from the gate Jul 27 (viewed online). #8 Golden Two Step also debuts with solid workouts. The truth is, this race looks fairly wide open. And even though Misstrial is the proper favorite, 2-1 seems awfully short. No bets.

Like to bet on 5-year-old maidens? Perhaps not, yet #8 Glorious Life is the one to beat making his first start since October. Now 5, gelded since raced, ’Life ran races last year fast enough to win this Cal-bred maiden turf sprint. His trainer Carla Gaines won with 8 of her last 28 maidens returning from layoffs of six months or more (29 percent). #4 Jack Fish set the pace and finished a promising second in his debut last month on dirt. He could be tough to catch second time out.

Speed is dynamite this summer in five-furlong turf sprints; 10 of the first 14 races were won by horses positioned one-two after the first quarter-mile. Glorious Life and Jack Fish both have speed for front-running/pace-pressing trips. Unfortunately, they are the first two choices at 3-1 and 2-1, respectively.

Betting strategy is a $12 play in the pick three (50-cent min) that leaves off race-9 even-money favorite #9 Kings River Knight and uses only a pair of race-9 upset candidates: #2 Aligato and #10 Pure Madness.

Baffert entered a pair in this N1X sprint; both must be included. #1 Southern Gentleman won first out in 1:14.98, fastest six and one-half furlongs at SA in more than a year. The race was validated; the second- and fourth-place finishers behind ’Gentleman both won win their next start. ’Gentleman is potentially challenged by the inside post in this six-furlong dash, but he is quick enough to establish position, and if he runs two alike can make it two-for-two.

The second Baffert is a reach. #4 Firmus tailed off last year after his winning debut for another trainer in the Midwest. Sired by Curlin and produced by a filly who won four G2s, Firmus has trained well and adds Lasix. He’ll make a big forward move first-time Lasix, first-time Baffert.

It’s a small field of seven, with minimal value. Betting strategy is a mere $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists the race be won by a Baffert trainee.

Based on his workmanlike win last out – the least impressive of his eight stakes wins – even-money #9 Kings River Knight is worth betting against. He may have lost a step at age 7. Secondly, he faces pace rivals who will make things difficult. Kings River Knight might win anyway, but even-money is not the right price in a race likely to unfold at a quick tempo.

Late-runner #2 Aligato can upset a race that sets up for his late rally. He has trained well for his first since January, he targeted this race for weeks. Glatt-trained comebackers routinely are ready to fire, and at 4-1 in the program, Aligato offers value in a race that should set up well. #10 Pure Madness has worked very well for his comeback; he is two-for-two on turf, and can carry his speed. Pure Madness is listed at a crazy 15-1. He’ll probably come down from that price.

Betting strategy will focus on Aligato and Pure Madness. Win bets on both, $18 play in the exacta ($1 min) and $18 play in the late pick three ($3 min) that singles a 5-1 shot in the race-11 finale. If the favorite Kings River Knight wins the race-9 California Dreamin’ Stakes, we’re out of luck right off the bat.

Three contenders in this filly-mare Grade 1 are tough to separate: #7 Kopion, #1 Seismic Beauty and #5 Richi. Kopion is the right favorite, stretching out for the first time since last year. Three of her sprints this year were dazzling; she gallops out like a filly who will have no problem with a mile and a sixteenth around two turns.

Seismic Beauty is two-for-two since stretching out. She won an allowance by 10; she won a Grade 2 with a 104 Beyer. If she breaks running from the rail, she could be gone. Richi is more versatile and could tuck into a cozy trip just off the speed. Richi won a G2 last out by more than four lengths and has trained well for her comeback. It’s tough to make money when the three favorites in a seven-horse field all look good. No bets.

The final race, Cal-bred N1X turf route, offers a longshot play. It’s a weak race, and good spot to take a shot with stretch-out #10 Uncle Chilly, listed 5-1 Uncle Chilly’s turf sprints this season at Santa Anita were not bad, he stretches out from a pair of creditable sprints with speed figures that compare favorably to this field. His even-paced style suggests he will relish a two-turn mile. #12 Miles Finch put it all together with a front-running win in a maiden turf sprint that was his fifth start, but he remains questionable around two turns. This is his third try at a route, he will be involved in the pace. 

Betting strategy is simple. If the price is right, it’s win bet on top choice Uncle Chilly.