Moss 2008 Derby Pace Analysis: Historical Background

By Randy Moss, Special to DRF.com

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In advance of the Moss Pace Figures for the 2008 running, here is a year-by-year look at the Race Shape pace figures for the Kentucky Derby. Since last year’s numbers were published, the figures have been modified slightly, but comparisons from one year to the next remain the same.

2007	77	86	92	93	96	Street Sense
2006	78	86	88	90	97	Barbaro
2005	86	92	95	95	93	Giacomo
2004	78	88	90	95	95	Smarty Jones
2003	74	84	89	94	96	Funny Cide
2002	68	79	84	92	98	War Emblem

A year ago, Hard Spun set a pace slightly slower across-the-board than the previous three runnings. Even though he was probably better at a mile than a mile-and-a-quarter, he held for second and might have won had Calvin Borel not given Street Sense one of the greatest and most daring rides in Derby history.

In 2006, an expected torrid pace never materialized, and Barbaro broke the race wide open as the field entered the stretch. That race began with slightly above-average pace, but by the quarter pole the pace had slowed to such an extent that the one-mile 91 figure is the lowest recorded from 1992-2006, and Barbaro’s seven-point acceleration from that 91 to his final number of 97 also is the highest recorded during that period.

In 2005, note the suicidal pace that directly contributed to Giacomo’s stunning 50-1 victory.  The opening-quarter 86 is the highest from 1992-2006, the opening half-mile in 92 is second-highest, and the six-furlong 97 is co-highest.

Smarty Jones chased a pace in 2004 that was slightly quicker than Barbaro chased.

The average Race Shape for the 92-06 Derby runnings is 78-84-91-95-96: almost exactly the pace for Funny Cide’s 2003 score.

Note the much slower quarter, half and six-furlong figs in 2002 – the year War Emblem was left alone to set a moderate pace.

 

2001	82	94	95	96	99	Monarchos
2000	78	85	91	93	96	Fusaichi Pegasus
1999	67	76	85	93	96	Charismatic
1998	77	90	91	97	95	Real Quiet
1997	67	79	86	94	98	Silver Charm

A pace meltdown similar to 2005 occurred in 2001, the year Point Given raced unusually close to the pace and Monarchos stormed from far back to upset the field.

The pace was merely average the year Fusaichi Pegasus rallied from well back, and surprisingly slower-than-average when Charismatic nevertheless passed much of the field along with runnerup Menifee. Given that success against less-than-favorable circumstances, it was no surprise the Charismatic-Menifee exacta also clicked in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.

In 1998, Real Quiet held on to beat Victory Gallop despite a final quarter-mile that decreased in figures from 98 to 95.

Silver Charm’s 1997 Derby had a pace very similar but slightly quicker than Charismatic’s in 1999.

1996	82	86	92	97	97	Grindstone
1995	77	86	90	94	96	Thunder Gulch
1994	79	85	90	95	97	Go For Gin
1993	76	83	88	91	95	Sea  Hero
1992	68	75	84	91	95	Lil E. Tee

An opening 85 quarter in 1996 helped set the table for Grindstone’s come-from-behind upset in 1996, for which the pace was a few lengths quicker than in 1995, when Thunder Gulch also rallied for the win.

The pace was average in 1994 (Go For Gin) and slightly below average in 1993 (Sea Hero). Lil E. Tee came from well off the pace in 1992 despite opening figures slightly slower than for War Emblem’s wire-to-wire score, which doesn’t speak highly of the speed horses in that year’s running.